Friday Sept 19, 2008
The big money wants McCain to win. Therefore, they will change the rules
of the game at the last inning, and ban short selling in response to McCain's
criticism of the SEC. Obama's poll ratings had been rising due to the market
conditions
A volume reversal of over 3.2 to 1 near the lower envelope implies a
sharp rally. The bear isn't over yet though, and we will look for another
sell non-confirmation when it occurs.
July 31, 2008
Numerous
non-confirmations at upper trading band. Upper limit is probably 11900,
and downside movement to the lower band was seen in 2 of 3 previous
similar price/volume charts in election years.
July 15, 2008 After
yesterday's manipulated quick rally (dead cat bounce)on the "good news"
rescue of FNM, banks caught the public's spreading flu of " who is
next". Only 500 - some new lows. At a bear market bottom we would see
800 plus.
July 14, 2008
Can anyone say dead cat bounce?
June 9, 2008
A
great-looking rally to the top of the trading range was shot down by
the Israeli official who said war is inevitable, and imminent.War means
oil in the stratosphere, and no timing system can take into account
trader aversion to infinite risk due to political events.There is now a
need for a war premium in the oil market, and a corresponding war risk
premium in the stock market until the Democrats actually walk into the
White House.
May 28, 2008 Minor non-confirmation at lower 3.5% band means a probable tag of upper 3.5% band after some possible backing and filling
April 2, 2008
When there is an
over 4% DJI one-day gain there is a slightly better than 60% chance of
still higher prices, and yet a 70% chance that that will be followed by
another retest of the lows.
March 25, 2008
*Please read carefully* If we have 75 more declines than advances today
or tommorow on the NYSE, we will get a HIGH PROBABILITY major sell
non-confirmation which likely will go to the lower 3.5% band. This is
in keeping with the election cycle.
March 13, 2008
Looking back at high volume reversals and breadth reversals in a
Presidential year, we find that on a down day such as yesterday after a
high volume up reversal day, the chance is good for a retest of the
recent lows with perhaps one spike lower before a 5-7 % rally. But in
all cases, after the retest, there was a rally to the upper 2.9 to 3.4%
band.
March 12, 2008
Fed - engineered rally forms a weak double bottom and will call in more
shorts. The banking sector is key- if it continues up we will have a
healthy rally.
Fed is signalling willingness to support the market by new tactics. We
also have an interest rate reduction likely soon.
Rally looks to have some legs.
Wednesday Feb 26, 2008
Will we grind out a painful rally until the expected March 7 date?
Normal cash flow into funds ends on the 4th trading day of the new
month...but, it is like walking on thin ice, any moment it could crack.
Rallies in this phase tend to be short and explosive, calling in the
shorts and naked put sellers. First resistance is 1395 S and P cash.
Not too far away. To the moving average? There isn't volume at this
point to suggest that. I still expect another downleg after this -and
why? In presidential election years, when the market is bad from the
start, and we pass the minus 13% from the top, there is a 12 to 4
historical chance of at least a 21% decline and /or a decline into
April. Its a good strategy to commit more at trade high probability
turning points, like the one we called last July 19- unequivocal sell.
When the next great buy comes, we will be looking for the same thing-
unequivocal evidence.
Feb 25, 2008
Market is in a trading range. The current countertrend rally may well
extend into the March 7th period, after which, a resumed decline into
the period of April 16 is likely. Watch overbought readings such as RSI
15 or 5, or Stochastic 5 or 15 during the March 7th period to determine
exact timing for long profits.
Jan 17, 2008
I expect an oversold rally, but it will be sold if it reaches
the upper band.
If we reach the upper band of 3.5% we will get a non-confirmation on breadth
and/or volume, similar to July19 of 2007, which was the top of that move.
In a poor market such as this, often rallies stop at the moving average and
don't reach the upper band.
Dec 20, 2007
Probability of a seasonal rally to about 1537 S and P cash into late
December or early January is high according to historical cash flow
patterns, after which, a decline on a non-confirmation from those
levels is also likely.
Oct2, 2007
Inversion of normal seasonals?
Time/price normally suggests a low on Oct17.
With the Fed pumping unprecedented billions into the system, could this be a high instead?
Never before in history have they inflated during an inflation!
Sept25 07
Loss of momentum on rally attempt to new highs is bearish in the short
term. Weakness is probable seasonally in the next 1 and 1/2 weeks.
Sept 19 2007
A Fed -engineered rally to new highs is possible since they seem
determined to postpone the recession until Democrats can take the
blame.
July 18 ,2007
Major non confirmation sell on market.
May 8 ,2007
Toppy
Long risk is seasonally high.
March 15, 2007
A close below DJIA 11960 projects 600 points lower. Resistance at 2400
NASDAQ means a follow through day on huge volume with 2 consecutive closes
above that will be needed to return confidence.
March 13, 2007
Short term overbought readings on NASDAQ suggest resistance at 2400 and a turn down.
March 7, 2007
The market tested support and normal seasonal cycles suggest a rally from near these levels.
Feb 27, 2007
Trendline break means that a larger correction is likely a recovery rally, if and when it occurs, will likely be sold into.
Feb 1,2007
The sideways correction in Nasdaq and other indices is now apparently over and new highs are in the works.
Jan 7 2007
We have major non confirmations in many averages near the upper bollinger band. It is likely time for a good correction.
June 16, 2006
Oversold rally or new bull leg? At this point, its not yet clear. We
fell almost 1000 DJIA points from the 11600+ top, and this is the
second violent upside reversal, partly expiration related. Asia has
follow through, but Europe is muted. Shorts are rightly nervous and
want to protect profits, but there still seems to be the possibility of
more downside next week. If we did reach the upper Bollinger band,
which is quite higher, we would get another major sell. The weight of
the evidence still favors a higher probability buy side position trade
at another time.
June 8, 2006
During the seasonal countertrend rally discussed here on May 23, we got
a 20 point S and P 500 rise within the first part of the 12 day period.
We then tagged the target of DJIA 10950. That has been broken. This
then likely will bring a test of next support; an eventual target of
10386.54.
May 23, 2006
In the past 47 years, the seasonal probability of a
rally over the next 12 trading days is 67.5%. This will likely not reach the
old highs, and may be not seen in all sectors, and is likely a countertrend
move.
May 19,2006
On six occasions in
the past four decades the stock market indices hit new highs, but
within the next five days experienced at least 5% of NYSE stocks making new
52-week lows. This occurred near the recent top. In every case the market
was lower
one month later, for an average loss of 5.1%
May 18,2006
By all measures, the DJIA and other indices are greatly oversold short
term, as previously mentioned. A short term countertrend bounce, on short
covering, is way past due. But as stressed over and over in the last
several posts, this does not mean the 11600+ DJIA highs are going to be seen
again any time in the near future, in many fund managers' eyes. So traders
will short the rally, when it occurs.
The recent infrequency of these posts was due to the extended length a top
takes to form. Indeed, the first crack in the market occurred in February,
where the series of whipsaws began that culminated in the May top and the
beginning of the washout.
Target is still 10950, at minimum. A position trader's buy will be
obvious, and will be signaled by the same type of divergences seen in
previous bottoms. Be patient, long side position traders, and wait.
February 14, 2006
Our cycle analyst is back!
According to his momentum model the NASDAQ is now on a sell as of the February 13th close.
March 1, 2006
It appears the NASDAQ cyclical sell was premature, and may have been an
inversion of the normal cycle. We are moving to neutral on the NASDAQ.
May 11. 06
The recent highs in the DJIA were a retesting of highs from years ago.
This was where selling was seen before. Seasonally, May and especially
June are weak in this part of the 4 year cycle, so at minimum,a tag of
the lower 4% band is likely within the next 3 months, if not
immediately. Minimum Target 10950 DJIA.
5/16/06
We are now oversold short term, so a countertrend pop should be
expected. This does not invalidate the 11600+ DJIA highs as being
significant, or stop normally weak May-June seasonality. The number of
sectors showing weakness still brings a high probability of at the very
least a tag of 10975 within the next 3 months.
