TIME & PRICE ANALYSIS

SPECIAL MORNING UPDATE FOR NOV. 20

I received an e-mail from Travis who says we have one more high coming if we gap up, then fill the gap. So NIMBLE traders might want to take advantage of this by covering our short from 1163.60 at 1159.30, then re-enterring at 1163-1165 area, THEN placing another order to cover that position at 1155.10. We would again look to re-enter on Monday into strength. OEX traders this is too complicated and should just stick with their positions. We are opening right at the projected high for today. If I am correct, we may get the chance to cover at 1155.10, DON'T COUNT ON IT, THOUGH.

The first sign a decline might be at hand is if we were to see the range narrow to three points or less between the opening and closing price of the Dec. contract. That would mean a close less than 1166.60. The second, or another indication, would be a close LOWER than today's open.

One thing that gives me a bit of a scare is that I took a poll among several traders as to what they think the direction of the market will go into the close of trading next week. EVERY RESPONSE I RECEIVED had the market going lower. If this says ANYTHING, we may ready for a breakout to the upside next week. We'll just have to wait and see. I would like to THANK those who responded. If it works well we will continue with it. Understand that we could break out and go higher. Nothing is impossible. Nobody guarantees that we have to go down here. But we have to take this trade with all the divergence that is going on. My gut FELL for today is we will open strong, fill the gaps, then move higher the balance of the day. But I am often wrong. It is best here to just take the positions and see what develops. Check in 15 minutes before the close today, I may post a special update then. Thanks for checking in.

GLOBEX is looking to gap up to our 1163 target. SHORT HERE. I want you to place a limit buyback for today at 1155.10. IF HIT, place another sell short order at 1161.40. There is only a 30% probability that this trade will take place, but our daily overbought/oversold indicator, along with put/call and stochastics say today may very well be it. If you get the fill at 1155.10, we will then look to re-enter Monday into strength. OEX traders should be scaling the 2nd part of their position in OEWXE. We should have a good average price now. Premiums have dropped radically since the beginning of the week, but, if a good decline gets underway, they will shoot back up just as quickly, as they did with our call position last week.

This is not a FORMAL recommendation, but those with a little guts may elect to buy some $7-$8 November puts at the open, sell them when the gap on the Dec. futures contract is filled. Use a 25% stop on this trade if taken. I personally would pass on this trade, being expiration. 13 of 14 trades this way have been winners recently, so it could be due for a loser here. Check back after the open, I have a few more comments I would like to make then, running out of time here, it being near 9:00

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DAILY COMMENTARY MONDAY NOV. 19, FOR NOV. 20 TRADE DATE

Not much to add tonight to the commentary I have made all week. As each day passes we are getting dangerously close to a decline. The dow may have had made it's high on Tuesday, the 38-day cycle turn date. The SPX cash and futures made another high today, as I said we most likely would. My opinion says we still will see a short-term high either tomorrow afternoon, Monday morning latest. My best guess is that it will be tommorrow. I would then look for a decline into the 27th, then another rally into Dec. 4. Trying to pick a top can be lethal. If anything we see this week what a market can do with poor technicals, which have been in place since Monday. The FIRST DAY DOWN will be our first indication of a change in trend. 8950 on the dow is an important level of support also. A break of that will signal a move down to the 8650-8700 area minimum.

I have said this week we did not want to jump in bigger on the short side until I saw the DAILY STOCHASTIC move into overbought region. We are there now. All other indicators are set-up.

I have added a daily range projection for the OEX this evening. I prefer (myself) to trade the OEX basis the Dec. futures contract, they seem to adhere more to this than to anything else. But for those traders who follow the OEX EXCLUSIVELY, I thought I would add it here. However, I will keep my comments with reference to the nearby futures contract as I have been doing. I am thinking about soon adding a range projection for one put option and one call option for day traders.

I did a morning update for the first time this week at 9:00 AM today. Those of you who missed it missed a good, quick profit. Always be sure to check here at 9:00 AM. If nothing is posted there will be no new trades. I will try to get it posted by 8:50 or 8:55 if I can, so you can get your trades in by nine.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

CALL/PUT$$ RATIO - 4/1 (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .81 (SOLID BEARISH))

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1164 HIGH - 1153 LOW

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE OEX - HIGH 571.20 - LOW 565.74

Notice that the above projected range HIGHS are running right into resistance at the TIME of the 20th-23rd date for a high as I have been referring to the past few weeks. We are almost there. Also notice that todays projected range was for 1158 for a high and 1143 for a low, were again very close, with 1159 the actual high and 1147 the actual low. I hope some daytraders are getting some benefit with these.

TODAY'S ACTION AND NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

FUTURES TRADERS are still short from 1141.50 area. Again we are here as expected near our target. Add an additional contract at 1163. We will move one last position in at 1172 if necessary on Monday if hit. That should give us a good average price per contract. A minimum downside of 1118 is our target. In the morning update I gave out a trade recommendation to SHORT the S & P at 1153.60, which it was trading at on Globex at that time. You may have had a fill from 1152.40 up to 1153.60. A buyback was put in at 1149.10, for a profit ranging from $700-$900 per contract. We were in and out quickly, the fill came about an hour into trading.

OPTIONS TRADERS are still long a 30% position in OEWXE December puts. Continue with this trade and add another 20% position at 1163 December futures. Check in the morning for any changes.

STOCK TRADERS sold the 25% long in DELL at the open as instructed for a SLIGHT profit of 1/2 point. I was not worried as much about the profit or loss on this trade as I was in freeing avaliable capital for stock traders to use in shorting the SPY contracts. Another 50% trade was recommended at 115 3/8, bringing our average price on this 100% short position to 115.06 (a little more with commissions). If you haven't done so, sell DELL first thing in the morning and add to the SPY's.We are still holding our 50% long in ASA mining, this trade will not likely change, except to add to this position in the 18 area if hit. We are now seven for seven in closed trades.

Many thanks for checking in.

Good Luck, Good Trading,

Jim Curry


SPECIAL MORNING UPDATE FOR NOV. 19 - A trade is setting up this morning. With the overbought nature of yesterdays close, and with the put/call $$ value being what it is, I want you to place a SELL on the Dec. futures contract here on Globex. We are curently up about four points in pre-opening. Place a BUY TO COVER at 1149.10, end of trade. If the cover is not hit we will consider this part of our scale in trade and CANCEL the scale-in I gave you last night at 1163. If the trade this morning is elected and goes through and is covered at 1149.10, then place another order to SELL again at 1163, then hold this position and await further instructions. There is a very high-probability that this trade will be covered quickly, but no guarantees. I have had 12 of 13 winners with this the past several weeks so it could be due for a losing trade. DO NOT underestimate the power of this market to move higher from here. 1160-1172 is still my target. We will move in one last position at this area.

STOCK TRADERS I want you to sell our 25% long in DELL at the opening price for what looks to be a small profit on this trade. We will need this capital to short SPY. Place a SELL SHORT SPY at 115 3/8 for another 50% short in these shares, which will bring our position to a 100% short here.

MID-MORNING UPDATE - Bingo! If you placed your order sometime between 9:00 or 9:10 AM you have had a fill in the 1153.00-1153.60 area. Our fill at 1149.10 went through a little over an hour after the opening. We also placed an order to sell our small long position in DELL. That should have gone through at 63 7/8. Nothing else for today. Place your order again to short at 1163.

DAILY COMMENTARY MONDAY NOV. 18, FOR NOV. 19 TRADE DATE

I was out for most of the day today, so I just have a few notes to make tonight. First, again we had a day with an up market but a fledging advance/decline line. This has taken place now several days in a row and is to be expected here with so close to a cycle high. The second observation is that we still have at least until Friday before stochastics jump up high enough for all my indicators to be in line for a major sell signal. My best guess is we have one more high above yesterday's high to make, most probably by Friday or Monday latest. The DOW could very likely have seen its cycle high yesterday. The S & P Dec. futures contract still has at least one more high to go. One last comment is there could be a possiblity of a move to 1200 here during this cycle top. The weekly bollinger band top is right at that 1200 area. But we are not likely to get there without a round of selling first. Previous fourth wave support last Thursday is at 1118. If we do keep going up to 1160 area by the 23rd, as I suspect we will, we should see at least a pullback to this area. If we get oversold at that level we will close out shorts and reverse with a smaller trade to the long side to catch the last wave up. That wave could top out around Dec. 4. I am then looking for a decline into Christmas, rally into the first week of January, then the strongest selling that should last into the 19th. We will take a bigger short there. And then an even bigger trade to the long side from that.

A miscalculation that I made when going over my figures this morning. The expected low is mid-January. I then said we should expect a 6-week rally into the expected top out of the 18, 36, and 72 week cycles. The actual top out cannot come until TWELVE weeks afte the Jan. low. So that would put us right at tax time for the top. The decline into mid-July will be brutal, but expect new highs before it comes.

Bear in mind that I have no bias whatsoever, bullish or bearish. I could really care less where the market goes, as long as we are on the correct side. If I ever feel I am wrong, I will not (hopefully) try and defend my position, as I have seen so many other advisors do. If they are long or short or are trying to defend a VIEWPOINT they can end up in a whole mess of trouble. We don't want to get into that.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

CALL/PUT$$ RATIO - 4/1 (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .70 (MILD BEARISH))

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1158 HIGH - 1143 LOW

TODAY'S ACTION AND NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

FUTURES TRADERS are still short from 1141.50 area. I want you to add another contract at 1163 if hit tomorrow. This area will most likely not be seen until Friday, but tomorrow is not out of the question.

OPTIONS TRADERS are still long a 30% position in OEWXE December puts from yesterday. The premiums shrunk heavily today which should give us a good average entry price over the next few days. Add another 20% position on any move to 1163 Dec. futures if hit tomorrow.

STOCK TRADERS: We are still long a 25% position in DELL from 63 3/8. If we can get a decent price on DELL over the next few days we will look to sell, even though our gap fill target of 71 3/4 has not been met. I lhad ooked for this gap to be filled on the move to the upside we have had this week, but it hasn't budged. We got a decent price and should be able to sell at a slight profit over the next day or two. We will need the money to short the SPY contracts as well. Traders did well today on shares of ASA mining, bought yesterday's opening price of 20 3/8. The stock hit 21 3/8, a decent one day gain. I don't expect anything major to the upside on gold until after the 23rd. If we pull back to fill some gaps, we will double up on our position. I want to be agressive on this trade, as I think a major push up will occur from this cycle low.

The call/put $$ value closed at 4/1 today, one of the most overbought levels of the year. My daily overbought indicator closed at .70, so day traders might look for a selling opportunity for a day trade tomorrow early, ESPECIALLY if we gap up near the projected high at 1158. Check in in the morning for any special update, so far none this week. I had one prepared late last night as the futures were looking like they might gap up strongly this morning. If they had it would have created a good selling opporunity down to the 1136 region from 1148, but the trade never occured. Many thanks for checking in.

Good Luck, Good Trading

Jim Curry


DAILY COMMENTARY MONDAY NOV. 17, FOR NOV. 18 TRADE DATE

Today was something else. A two-thirds day of the doldrums really lit fire underneath after the fed announcement. An excellent day for us altogether. We hit my minimum cycle target to the upside of 1150 on the December futures. Was there ever any doubt? You bet. 1160 is where wave one should be 1.618 of the move from 1118 to 1145. That could do it for the upside, or at least for wave 3 at any degree. With today's strength, and with time left for stochastic to move into overbought level, my guess is that we have at least one more high coming, at least to 1160. There is a possibility of a move to 1172 here, if 1160 is the completion of only three waves up. A wave four would follow, folled by a final push up to 1170. Either way techincals are suggesting a decline is at hand. If this were the BEGINNING of short term cycle up pressure, I would argue differently, however we are near completion of the topping for the 18-week cycle, and are ready for a move into the cycle trough, due anytime around mid-January. I have seen this many times before.

Despite the up close in both the Nasdaq and SPX, decliners beat advancers in both indexes. The Russell 2000 managed another down close. The market is ripe for the picking on the short side with such key divergences and a cycle top coming due. Understand that the change from bull side starts SLOWLY before the ball really can get rolling. We are now on the short side, so give this trade some TIME. Let's not rush or get impatient. Let's realize this market can and may very WILL go higher before we will be able to profit from it. Good things come to those who wait. So sit tight. The next critical turn date now becomes the 23rd. The 38-day turn date looks to be a high as witnessed today. Or it could be a high on the 23rd as I have been looking for. If we do continue up into the 23rd we will look to be more aggressive on adding to shorts there.

I want to make some comments on the indicators here, and what they can do for you. The projected range for today was 1136 for the low and 1150 for the high. Actual high was 1157, actual low 1133. The market opened and proceeded in a lull for most of the day, hovering around 1138 on the futures contract until about 30 minutes before the fed announcement. Then it proceeded to sell off to 1133 rather quickly. Knowing that the market had never attempted to approach the projected high of 1150, and had been sitting near the projected low all day, it was a no-brainer that the market would most likely rally once the news came out. Day traders could have taken a trade at 1136 on the long side, and would have had only a 3 point risk on the downside and a 14 point gain on the upside if correct. A good risk/reward at any case. I am mentioning this for traders who want to take trades on their own, and who look for good risk/reward opportunities. Anytime a critical announcement is due watch for these opportunities to play out. At least now you now know what to look for on a day like today.

Another comment I want to mention is that I am expecting the coming correction to be a SIDEWAYS correction, similiar to that witnessed from mid-April last year into June. It should be a traders dream. We are getting at the point, according to my calculations, where cycle pressure will be almost CONSTANT. by that I mean that down pressure and up pressure will be almost in equilibrium with each other, with SLIGHT weighting to the downside. My target are 1097 on the dec. futures FIRST, then a possibility of 1080 cash, MAYBE even down to 1040 area. Once this cycle high is complete, I then can give a projection using a price/time calculation that I use. This same projection is used to project dow 9200 by late January this year, also I projected 7445 in July as the approximate cycle low this October, which was also right on the money. Once this cycle low is complete by January, we will be even more agressive on the long side for the ride up into spring.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

CALL/PUT$$ RATIO - 3/1 (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .59 (NEUTRAL)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1160 HIGH - 1138 LOW

TODAY'S ACTION AND NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

FUTURES TRADERS should have had a better day than originally expected. The gap down on Globex at 1138 should have been bought. If you waited until the buy at the open your fill was 1139 (I always buy on GLOBEX, opens tend to be unreliable fills). If you placed your limit sell at 1141.50 and were filled at that price you should have had aprofit of $625-$875 per contract. However, you probably got a much better fill as I did on this trade, possibly by as many as 4 or 5 extra points. When the announcement came out the market was moving so quickly to the upside that 1141 was blown right by. I did NOT place a limit sell on the contract from Globex this morning. I elected to wait for the news and rally and sell into it. I also had another contract long from yesterday that I sold. You should have REVERSED at 1141.50 also. I will assume all fills today took place at 1141.50 and will refer to us as SHORT now from this area. We will look to add here in the coming days.

OPTIONS TRADERS: Traders were instructed yesterday to sell the 20% December call position at gap fill today on the Dec. futures if the market opened lower. That gap fill occured right after the fed announcement. If you sold into that rally you should have had an excellent fill. You should also have reversed to the OEWXE December put at the same time. We will look to add to puts if prices continue to rise to the 1160 area.

STOCK TRADERS: We are still long a 25% position in DELL from 63 3/8. Also, traders were advised to take a 50% short position in the SPY contracts at the gap fill, which SHOULD have been in the 114 3/4 - 115 range. For the sake of simplicity I will assume we are short from the low end of that figure, or 114 3/4. The actual high was 115 1/2 so some of you may have a fill at that area. Traders should have also taken a 30% long position in ASA mining at the opening price, or 20 3/8. Hold the above positions for now.

So far we've had 5 recommendations and 5 wins on closed trades. Let's see if we can keep it up. Please be sure to check my section on this site at 9:00 AM every morning. I will post any new trades there by then. If nothing is up by 9 it means no change from the nightly update. Many thanks for checking in.

Good Luck, Good Trading

Jim Curry


COMMENTARY FOR NOV. 17 TRADE DATE

What to expect now: I am geeting very suspicious of this move based upon several technical indicators that are moving WAY too out of line to the bull side. First is tonight's reading of the put/call $$ ratio. The reading closed at 3.75/1, nearly DOUBLE what I cosider to be normal sell signal territory. The second thing is today's close. A range from open to close of less than three points tells me that the bulls are running out of steam to push this market higher. The advance decline line managed to close only modestly to the plus side, another negative. Not to mention a host of other indicators beginning to show some heavy diverging. The 36-38 day cycle turn is due tomorrow, the 17th. Seeing as we are near the highs and look to at least test, or possibly break through, it is time to start looking at the short side. THE ONLY THING that makes me suspicious about moving to short here is the fact that daily stochastics are still just moving off of oversold. Technically I would like to see stochastics hitting the overbought level before taking shorts, but the other indicators tell me WE ARE NEAR, or at least knocking at, the door to a good decline. The other possible scenerio is that today's decline was wave 2 of a 5 wave structure that will end at 1160 (1.618 times the wave 1 move from 1118 to 1145).

Something to make a note of for futures traders who are looking to trade the projected ranges I am presenting here. The range for today was projected to be 1138 for the high and 1126 for the low. When the market OPENS higher than the PROJECTED HIGH, as was the case for today, then the projected high should then look to become a support area, and the new projected high can many times be found by simply taking the projected range (in this case 11 points) and adding to the previous projected high (1137) to come up with 1148 as the new projected high. Today's actual high was in fact 1145, the low 1130. Support can also be found upon the gap fill, whcih was 1133 area. As with anything, this is not perfect but it more accurate than any other method that I know of for projecting numbers to buy/sell against. It is simply a case of resistance becoming support, and vice versa.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 3.75/1 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (VERY BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .50 (NEUTRAL)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1150 HIGH - 1136 LOW

TODAY'S ACTION:

In last nights commentary I wrote, "Our short-term daily indicators are pointing to the bearish side. The day-traders overbought/oversold indicator is in bearish territory, hinting a selling opportunity may be at hand shortly after the open. The put/call $$ ratio closed at 1.80/1, not at our 2/1 level required for a sell signal, but very close. Not a formal recommendation, but we may see an early open higher, followed by a gap fill on the December futures contract. I am not making this a recommendation for the reason that daily stocastics are still in mildly oversold territory. ". That is exactly what happened. The futures opened with a bombshell, then proceeded to peter out and close and fill the gap. Traders who elected to take the trade on their own had a good day with this, risking only a little over 2 points to gain 8, almost a 4/1 risk/reward ratio, very well indeed. Options traders could have done even better, as premiums shrank by almost 50% at the open from Friday's close. A $4 OEX option went to 6 1/4 on the gap fill from the futures contract, a better than 50% gain. I personally did not take these trades for the reasons I discussed yesterday, but instead took a long at 1133.10 and riding up until just before the close. I know of another trader who also took this trade with good results.

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NOV. 17

OPTIONS TRADERS: Traders holding the December calls from last Thursday at 1118 futures were rewarded today as premiums shot up to better than expected levels. What I am recommending tonight is Dec. call holders that are long from last Thursday, sell your positions at the opening tomorrow for a nice gain. If the futures look to gap DOWN by several points, you may elect to wait until the gap is filled before selling. I am recommending you then take a 30% PUT position in the OEWXE. If we continue higher we will add to this position on a run to the 1155-1160 area. If, instead the market does in fact turn down, we will take profits and then reassess what to do from there. Our minimum target for this trade will be a move to fill the gap left open at the 1097 area on the Dec. futures, however I could see a pullback down to 1080 SPX cash, or all the way down to the 1040's as a very real possibility. Personally, I would like to see us hit the 1160 area, the 9190 area on the dow, and daily stocastics reacing for overbought before really being aggressive on the short side. All the other indicators are set-up perfectly.

STOCK TRADERS are still long a 25% position in DELL computer from 63 3/8. Continue with this position. We may look to add on another dip down if it occurs. My feeling is this trade will turn into a little longer time frame, so sit tight. I am making a recommendation that traders go long at tomorrow's open shares of ASA (ASA mining), a south-African gold company. The stock closed today at 20 1/4. Take an initial 30% long of your account value. We will look to add to this position on any dip lower. My target for this stock is 26 3/4, sometime by March 1. Gold cycles are in the timeframe for a low, so it is best to start buying somewhere, and here is as good as any. I personally added another 200 shares today at 20 3/16, bringing my average price down to 20 1/2 on all my positions. Stock trades should also look to take a 50% SHORT position in the SPY contract at the open tomorrow on any gap higher on the futures. If the futures gap DOWN, simply wait for the gap fill and short there. We will also look to add to this position on any run up over the next week if it occurs.

FUTURES TRADERS should look to buy any down gap on the Globex futures in the morning. Place a limit sell at 1141.50 to move out. I am then recommending that traders go short at the same level. A test of today's high, or slightly higher would be an even better spot. Make sure you are well-capitalized here, as we will look at add shorts if we continue to work higher over the next few days. Maybe we will get lucky and the thing will go our way right from the start, but since the market rarely is so accomodating, we will move in some now and the rest if we do move higher. More on this tomorrow. Check to this site by 9:00 AM EST for any new trade developments that might take place between tonight and tomorrow morning, also for any new comments. If no posting is made by then, then no new trades other than the above. Thanks for checking in.

Good Luck, Good Trading,

Jim Curry

currys@access.mountain.net


WEEKLY COMMENTARY FOR WEEK OF NOV. 16

Last week's commentary we stated the market was ripe for a pullback. The pullback was miniscule in nature, even though 4 of 5 trading days closed lower. SPY Trader's were advised to take shorts at Monday's open, we covered very near the weekly low on Thursday's open. Two futures trades were taken that were also profitable. We were looking for a short-term cycle low to complete wave four by the 17th. After reviewing the charts, in all liklihood wave four bottomed Thursday morning, with the December futures contract testing previous resistance (now support) at 1118 area. There is still the possibility we will see the 17th re-test this area, or go slightly below it, however I am now inclined to believe will will continue to push up. Ideally we are in a 5 wave pattern to the upside that should complete by Nov. 23rd, the highest probablity for a cycle high. From the October 8 low, wave one multiplied by 2.618 targets the 1153-1157 area for this high. This is also slightly above resistance set at the Nov. 6 prior high, also a gap to be filled at 1148 should attract this market like a magnet. Once these gaps are filled they often become resistance areas, so we now have a good target to look for a top, along with the timeframe of the 23rd to look for it. Gann clusters are also pinpointing the 23rd as the ideal date for a high. The alternate scenerio is we get there by the close of trading by Tuesday's close. The pattern of 36-38 days cycle reversals pinpoints the 17th as the next reversal date. If we look to get it up 1148-1155 on the December futures contract we will start our shorts there. I say START because this move could target near 1200. I want to see 5 waves up on an hourly chart combined with serious divergences on my technical indicators to start moving in shorts. I can see key divergences already, BUT, since the majority have to be fooled before the real move gets underway, there should be one more strong push up that may look as though it is never going to stop to catch traders on the wrong side.

Several other key things tell me we are at or near a cycle high. At Friday's close, both the Nasdaq and Russell closed LOWER, while the Dow and S & P spurted up. This says to me that the advance is becoming more narrow as the days move on. A similiar divergence set of at the close on July 17. Up to that point, the market had been closing higher, along with positive net closes on the advance/decline line. On July 17, we had an UP close, but the decliners won the battle on that day. And we know what happened shortly after. August 25 the same divergence occured. The collapse from August 25 to the Sept 1 low was the end result. On Sept. 2, a day where the market closed DOWN, along with a net positive a/d line. A strong rally then ensued. These are not always accurate TO THE DAY, but are not usually far off of where the real move is to go.

After this cycle high in the next few days/weeks, we are then looking for an approximate 6 week decline into our cycle low, which should occur around January 19 timeframe. The Bradley indicator, it should be noted, is also showing this date as an important low. Then, a push up into early spring. An even more important high will be in place by then, allowing us to look to be agressive on the short side, for a decline into the 18, 36, and 72 week cycle troughs by mid-July.

The way I see the set-up for this week looks like this: We are in a wave one of what I believe is a new wave 5 that will take us to 1155 or higher on the December futures contract. Wave 2 pullback may occur right before the fed meeting on Tuesday. Then a 3, 4, and final 5 into the 23rd, a high there next Monday morning preferably. No guarantees, but that is the best count I see for right now. A, B, C of wave four occured into the low at 1118 on Thursday. Once wave one is complete, we can then zero in on some fibonacci numbers to target completion of this wave.

GOLD STOCKS/XAU

I believe we have either made the cycle low for gold/XAU and may now be ready for a push up. I am currently long ASA mining from an average price of 20 3/4, but would look to add to positions on any pullbacks that may occur over the next three weeks, my target date for the next 24 week cycle low. The 24 week cycle has an average duration that can range anywhere from 18-24 weeks, so we are at the timeframe for a low to be in place. The upside target for ASA is 26 3/4 to 28, most probable by March 1, the next date to look for a cycle high. More on this later.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 1.80/1 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .86 (BEARISH)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1138 HIGH - 1126 LOW

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NOV. 16

Our short-term daily indicators are pointing to the bearish side. The day-traders overbought/oversold indicator is in bearish territory, hinting a selling opportunity may be at hand shortly after the open. The put/call $$ ratio closed at 1.80/1, not at our 2/1 level required for a sell signal, but very close. Not a formal recommendation, but we may see an early open higher, followed by a gap fill on the December futures contract. I am not making this a recommendation for the reason that daily stocastics are still in mildly oversold territory. I would feel much better about the indicators if our 1148-1155 target was the opening price and daily stocastics were more to the overbought side.

Trader's are in a 20% long position in December calls that is working out well, so far so good. In looking over GLOBEX trading tonight, I can see the futures up nearly 7 points, at 1140. Traders are to SELL this long position if, at anytime tomorrow, the December futures contract trades to a level of 1147.50 You may also elect to trail a stop behind this. This is a gap fill which may become resistance, however we may just make a clean break through it and keep on moving. Be especially careful around 1155 if you are still holding contracts and are trailing a stop. I would look to liquidate completely at this level. There is a POSSIBILITY of a re-test of the 1118 area on Tuesday, although not likely. If we get it before we get to 1147.50, we will add additional December calls at this level. No new trades tomorrow for OEX traders until a good opportunity presents itself.

Traders were also advised to buy shares of DELL at the open of trading on Friday if the stock looked to open LOWER in pre-opening. The stock opened at 63, my actual fill was 63 3/8. The immediate target for DELL is 71 3/4. If the futures open strong in the morning to the upside, we may look to sell this position if the stock looks to open in the 66-67 range, for a good quick profit. We would then place a limit buyback at 64 1/2 to re-buy this position in anticipation of the move back to 71 3/4. Check this site tomorrow morning for an update on this position. If there is a special move that I want you to make, I will post here by 9:00 A.M. EST.

One last note. Thanks to Rick Pereira here on his help in setting me up to post this section. I am just now getting aqainted on publishing, I think I have most of the kinks worked out now and should be able to post an early morning update when I think good trade set-ups are likely to occur. So check by 8:30 - 9:00 AM, if nothing is posted there by that time there will be no trades that day. Many thanks for checking in.

Good Luck, Good Trading,

Jim Curry