TIME & PRICE ANALYSIS

MORNING UPDATE FOR NOV. 27

I will be adding a short from the open, with a buy to cover at 1186.50, if not covered today I will consider this part of my position trade. If 1200 is closed above I will add another contract there as well. Shorter-term OEX traders should make a purchase ONLY if the OEWXM trades above 5 3/4. Sell at 7 1/4, end of trade. Hourly cycles bottom near Monday's close, we will look to exit any shorts there.


EVENING UPDATE FOR NOV. 26, NOV. 27 TRADING DATE

Globex futures are up about 7 points in overnight trading, projecting a cash value to at least 1190 after the open sometime tomorrow. A push above 1193 would most likely break out the hourly bollinger bands to the upside, and thus I would expect a HIGH on the 30th, rather than a low as projected. MY FEELING here is that we will open higher tomorrow, fill the gap, and meander around for the balance of the day in a trading range. Hourly cycles pinpoint a low Monday mid-day. The alternate scenerio of a HIGH made the 30th could well play out. I believe an intermediate-term high was made the opening of trading on the 24th. We are due for at least a fourth wave pullback possibly to the 1158-1162 area December futures. IT IS POSSIBLE that the high is in for this cycle, at least in one of the indexes. We'll have to see how this plays out of the next few days/weeks.

I am re-affirming traders to be looking more aggressively to the short side of the market. Recent Investors Intelligence polls have the bulls at a startling 59%, the highest in over 6 years. This TELLS ME we may be ready to undergo even more of a correction than I may be THINKING. We will pull back, at minimum, to the 1118 level on the futures contract, sometime before January 19. We could possibly even see 1097, 1040, or even 1020. Cycles always exhibit the characteristics of the one previous to them, so one whale of a decline could come out of this. The actual price is too early to project. I will get a better read in the coming weeks.

Another note: the NYSE specialists are now accounting for over 50% of the short interest. They, like myself, are often EARLY. But I would not want to be on the other sides of those trades. There are about 300 Dow points of risk to the upside vs. 1,000-1,200 points on the downside. Longs are HIGH-RISKS right now. I have a shorting power of about ten S & P contracts, I am short 3 at an average price of 1161, and will be adding to positions on the way up. Because I believe an even stronger move to the upside will take place into spring, 5 contracts is the maximum I will allow myself on the short side during this move. If this is a wave TWO, then we will look at the .61 retrace area, which is surrently about 8160 area on the dow. There is at least a 40% probability we will see this area over the next 6 weeks.

My high forecast date of the 23rd, which I have been harping on for so long, was so far a good effort. I have caught but one (January 12) to the exact day, but I am usually within a week to ten days of the actual move. Over the next few weeks we'll see if I am right. If you do not catch the move it is your own fault. I told you so.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - DOWN

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 2.31/1 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .50(NEUTRAL)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1192 HIGH - 1184 LOW

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR OEX - HIGH/589 - LOW/582

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

No new trade recommends, except aggressive traders should be looking to add positions on the short side over the coming days, with a 1118 target to shoot for by January. The call volume has increased considerably over the past few days, which leaves me feeling more and more comfortable as the days wear by. The put/call $$ ratio is tells me this market is in the most overbought state is has been in several YEARS. SPY traders could add nother 25% to shorts here if they wish. HAVE PATIENCE here. The down side will play itself out over the coming weeks.


MORNING UPDATE FOR NOV. 25

I am making a late update, my ISP was down early this morning. But, for those of you who may see it, here it is. This is for day traders: What the probable pattern for today is the low made first, hourly cycles project a low made around 11:00 AM. If we are coming down into this time frame and are NEAR the projected low, this might be a good spot to enter long for a day trade. But keep it small and quick. The day before Thanksgiving has good-odds of posting an up-close, even if only slightly. Trail a close stop behind. Position traders hold positions. If, by some stretch, we mount an incredible rally to 1204 I will be adding another contract short on the December futures contract. There should be a B wave rally into Friday morning, followed by a final C wave test of the bollinger band center line at 1158-1160 by Monday evening-Tuesday morning. I will post an update Thanksgiving night for Friday. I wish all of you a good Thanksgiving, and a well-earned day off. Thanks again.

Jim


EVENING UPDATE FOR NOV. 24, NOV. 25 TRADING DATE

If the decline we are looking for is underway, then the 30th should see a low in the 1150's in the december futures contract. Today's projected high never had a chance, the projected low at 1184 was right on the money. The unwillingness of a push to test the high projection also says down is now the path of least resistance. It is possible, but not probable, we will test the 1118-1135 area on Monday. Since this move still counts as corrective, we will look for the 10 DAY EMA to be the target. What should follow will be a good rally into the 4th or 6th to new highs in the Dow Jones at what possibly could be 9575-9600 area, or at minimum a double top. I would have to give the longs the benefit of the doubt on this one. A decline should take us down into mid-month, followed by a four to five day rally, then a low coming before Christmas. Then the old-fashioned after Christmas rally on low volume. We are still targeting January 19, plus or minus 2 days for the eventual low of this cycle. The potential low looks to range anywhere from 8160 on the dow to 8750. I am favoring the 8500 area for a low. The S & P futures could make it down to fill the small gap at 1097, but it is not guaranteed we will get down this far. If we DO it is likely to be January 19, my best guess. January we will be looking for spots to move into aggressive call options and futures for the move into spring.

I have been asked by several subscribers to do a longer-term cycle projection for this new bull-market. If we do get the blow-off top, where would it end? The first and strongest thrust up should being mid-Summer, with several intermediate term cycles coming together in conjunction to form a bottom. The move out of that should be spellbounding. Similiar to the push we have seen from the October lows, but with a much longer duration. This up-move is scheduled to complete in 2003 for what I believe, may be the end of this great bull market. There are several longer-term cycles of greater magnitude to exert enough down pressure to last into the year 2026. But that is way too far out for us to worry about now. I have to wonder what the cause will be that sets this market down into that timeframe. Prechter may yet have his day.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - DOWN

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 2.89/1 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .22(MILD/BULLISH)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1190 HIGH - 1179 LOW

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR OEX - HIGH/587 - LOW/581

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NOV. 23

Traders should now be looking to sell rallies until Monday, especially any gap-up opens near resistance or into the top of the daily projected range. Look to SELL within 3 points of the projected high and buyback within 3 points of the projected low (futures). Use your technicals to confirm. Futures traders are short 3 contracts from an average price of 1159.50. We will look to cover those positions on Monday, as with all put positions. We will re-enter on the long side there. OEWXM is a BUY on a break of 5 3/4, with 9 as the target price by Monday. Wait for the breakout FIRST before taking the position. SPY traders we will be holding their position until January 19 or 1118 futures if reached, whichever comes first. Our cycle low for gold continues to be between now and mid-December. AGGRESSIVE traders might look into DROOY on the mining play. The stock DOUBLED from late August into October, and I would expect a similiar move into springtime. I would buy 1/2 now, 1/2 more if falling into mid-December. Check-in at 9:00 AM in the morning for any other trade developments.

Good Luck, Good Trading

Jim Curry

currys@access.mountain.net


PRE-CLOSING POST FOR NOV. 24 - Today's action convinces a downturn is now underway. I will have to change my downside target to the mid-range on the bollinger band (at 1150). This should be the minimum pullback area. We could go LOWER, but if, on the 30th, we see this area, we will close out our shorts and reverse to a small long position for the last wave up into Dec. 4. Next I would like to see a break of a daily low, we should get that sometime tomorrow. Dow 9100 is all we will likely see on Monday. We could see dow 9575 by the 4th, or at least a double top there. Catch tonight's update for more.

EVENING UPDATE FOR NOV. 23, FOR NOV. 24 TRADING DATE

I have to admit being STUNNED, but not surprised by today's rally. Although I gave a good-odds projection to 1200 using the weekly moving average crossover method, I really did not expect the rally today to be all-engulfing, as it was.

Usually within TWO DAYS of options expiration and important high or low is made. So we either decline from the opening tomorrow, or we make the high FIRST. Looking on a weekly chart, the strongest resistance is at the previous all time high, also 9575-9600 area. A break of the trendline at 9100 will be the confirmation the top is in. We will then look for a move on the dow back to at least the weekly bollinger band moving average, or around 8500 area. That same area on the S&P futures contract works out to be 1090 area. We WILL very likely see these areas hit before January 19. That much I can just about assure you.

During cycle completions it always looks as if the market will never stop going up or down, given the direction. Remember September-October? The snowball effect in action. It will feel much the same again on January 19, when investors will be asking themselves why they did not do some selling in late November with the market at all-time highs.

We are ready for a 3-wave, A-B-C decline to begin anytime. The first solid day down should market the top as being IN, and the decline should begin from there. A break of 9100 dow is the second confirm. So look for these.

Tomorrow I am going to give some projections out on where the market should go longer term. Travis and I are in agreement with a blow-off top coming. I want to give an OUTLINE of where the momentum should pick up greatest (believe it or not, it's not now!) and where it should end. More on this Tuesday evening.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 2/.631 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .81(BEARISH)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1204 HIGH - 1184 LOW

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR OEX - HIGH/591 - LOW/580

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NOV. 23

For the first time since I have presented them, the daily range projections were of no help to traders. I have gone back to past times in history where this occured (the market not even so much as ateempting a pullback after a previous overbought day and week). All were followedby near thunderous declines. This being Thanksgiving week I would expect that any decline would take it's time to get underway, however.

The survey I made among several traders Friday morning, was, as I mentioned, OVERWHELMINGLY bearish. Not as much on the DEPTH of a decline. Just that all traders were bearish, out of the eight that I polled. That includes most of the OEX TRADER group, including myself. This BULL/BEAR index, if it works, I will make a part of the weekly analysis. It should give a good clue of the next weeks' market direction.

I am recommending that traders HOLD positions. If you have the staying power, add to positions if one of two conditions occur. (1)The dow hitting 9570, add aggressively there (I will), or a BREAK of 9100 trendline. Then hold. This same recommendation I am making for all traders. If 9570 is HIT, then load the boat with out of the money options. Keep 75 dow points as your stop if need be.

The old axiom of BUY when everybody else is selling, and SELL when everbody else is buying remains true here. Once the cycle low is in we will have our profits back in spades. No update for tomorrow morning, I have to be out for most of the day. If I have any special comments to make I will post them before the closing bell tomorrow evening.

Good Luck, Good Trading

Jim Curry

currys@access.mountain.net


WEEKLY COMMENTARY FOR WEEK OF NOV. 23

This week pretty much went as expected. In last week's weekly section I said the most probable place to look for a high was the 23rd. To quote from last week, "Ideally we are in a 5 wave pattern to the upside that should complete by Nov. 23rd, the highest probablity for a cycle high. From the October 8 low, wave one multiplied by 2.618 targets the 1153-1157 area for this high. This is also slightly above resistance set at the Nov. 6 prior high, also a gap to be filled at 1148 should attract this market like a magnet. "

Also stated was this: "The way I see the set-up for this week looks like this: We are in a wave one of what I believe is a new wave 5 that will take us to 1155 or higher on the December futures contract. Wave 2 pullback may occur right before the fed meeting on Tuesday. Then a 3, 4, and final 5 into the 23rd, a high there next Monday morning preferably. No guarantees, but that is the best count I see for right now. A, B, C of wave four occured into the low at 1118 on Thursday. Once wave one is complete, we can then zero in on some fibonacci numbers to target completion of this wave. " If you look at the charts, this is EXACTLY what happened. The pullback of wave 2 occured right before the fed meeting, as outlined. We are now in the process of completing 5 waves higher. The strongest fibonacci targets exist in the 1166-1172 area. The strongest Gann clusters coming from highs exist on November 23.

If my calculations are correct, we will see a high made tomorrow. I would like to see 1172 on the December futures contract and 9220 DOW, but not much higher. TOO much higher and we will likely break out to new highs. Make or break resistance resides in this area also. So we are at a TIME frame, along with a PRICE, of being near a short-term high. The second strongest clusters exist on the 27th-30th dates. These all come from LOWS and so I would expect to see a low made, and a good tradeable rally to possibly occur from there. Then a HIGH on Dec. 6, DOWN into the 13th, rally into the 16th, then down again into the 21st. After that I expect a good rally into the first week of January, then down again for the last low on January 19th. We are entering a time period where cyclic pressure is in near equilibrium, with equal pressure (but with a slight negative bias) pushing from both sides. This correction should be, in my opinion, very similiar to what we saw from mid-April this year into mid-June. Hopefully it should provide us with some good trading opportunities.

The technical picture is showing the same. Last week we had several days where the indexes managed good gains, but with a negative advance/decline line. This went on for most of the week. The LONGER this divergence sets up, the faster and stronger the following decline will be.

All said, here is what I see for the week: It being Thanksgiving week, it is hard for me to see a really HUGE decline to get underway. The decline we should see will be fairly MILD....at first. As we move along into December it should get progressively worse, the worst coming in January. The previous wave four is at 1118 on the December futures contract. This will be our initial target. Before it is all said and done, we should pull back to pick up the small gap left at 1097. There are several important Gann ratios that exist in this area also. I could actually see a decline into the 1040's-1080's, but it is too early to tell. We will focus on the 1118 area first. IF we do in fact see a low on the 30th, and IF PRICE MEETS TIME AT 1118 BASIS THE DEC. FUTURES CONTRACT, we will close out shorts there, and re-enter on December 6 on the short side. We will just have to see how this plays out. We may only manage a pullback to the 1135 area by the 30th.

Another possibility is we continue to rally into the 27th-30th. There is nothing to say this cannot happen. If we do rally into there, it will likely be a burst out to new highs, targeting the 1200 region for the S & P contract. One thing that makes me think this could be a possibility is the poll I took from several traders prior to the opening Friday morning. They were all mildly to firmly bearish for this week. Of course, that has changed some since Friday morning, many of them are starting to turn their opinions the other way. This BULL/BEAR INDEX I will keep posted if it proves worthwhile. We will know at the close of trading this week if it works out.

Be informed also that the Bradley indicator is showing a high for the 23rd as well. This can be plus or minus a day. Usually, these are just TURNS in the market, but since the 18-week cycle topout is at hand, we must give it the benefit of the doubt.

GOLD/XAU

Both the XAU and gold are in the timeframes for cycle lows here. These can extend out to Dec. 15. What follows should be a strong push up into Spring. Best to be buyers on any dips, doubly so if they are occuring around mid-December.

TODAY'S INDICATORS:

MACD DAILY SLOPE - UP

WEEKLY MACD SLOPE - UP

PUT/CALL $$ RATIO 3.56/1 IN FAVOR OF CALLS (BEARISH)

OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR - .70 (BEARISH)

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR THE DEC. S & P FUTURES CONTRACT: HIGH - 1173 HIGH - 1162 LOW

TOMORROW'S PROJECTED RANGE FOR OEX - HIGH/577 - LOW/571

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NOV. 23

As for trading tomorrow, I see a HIGH being made FIRST, both for the week and for the day. A gap UP into our daily projected high may prove to be a good selling opportunity for a day trade. A down close, or a close lower than the open, may be the first signal we are headed lower. An UP close with a narrow range from open to low (less than 3 points) may be another signal, ESPECIALLY if it occurs on heavier volume. A break of 9075 dow will be the confirmation.

FUTURES TRADERS are short an additional position from 1164, giving us an average price per contract of around 1153. We may add another position tomorrow, check the morning update FIRST. We may decide instead to wait for a break of 9075 DOW, current trendline support. A break of this should signal a test of the 8750 area. Again, I will post a special update in the morning, be sure to check in.

OPTIONS TRADERS are currently holding a long put position in the OEWXE. Continue holding, we will look to add one more position on the same conditions for the futures traders. Premiums have shrunk bigtime over the past week, but should rise just as quickly if the decline to 1118 takes place into the 30th.

STOCK TRADERS are 100% short SPY. We may look to add an additional 25% short here, but I am tempted to leave this position the way it is for now, especially since we are in a 50% long in shares of ASA mining. We will leave 50% open for other possiblities for now.

Some further notes: I had several OEX traders take the gap trade on Friday morning, all with good success. That is 14 of 15 winners over the past month. This system is only designed to work with OEX options during the last 8 trading days before expiration. DO NOT attempt to take these gaps trades otherwise unless I specify for you to. A $5,000 account would be up to nearly $15,000 in 8 trading days following this method, with NO LOSING TRADES. However, stops are kept at -25%, so drawdowns can be brutal. So far none have materialized. We will test this in real-time results in the coming few weeks. More on this later.

Good Luck, Good Trading,

Jim Curry

currys@access.mountain.net