PST
June 9, 2008
9 45 AM
The MomentumCycle section is updated
A quick note on USO. The Heartbeat is only flat on the daily at the moment, but we have it ticking on the monthly, and on the weekly. Dip buying on USO may be a good idea. Heartbeats are still flat on other indexes, suggesting we have not finished with the downside.

We got a rock of oil it looks like. A 50 dollar move down in oil, and we get a 500 point move up, if XLF was not responsible for the selloff. The big move in oil may also cause a labor shortage. How many people have day care, and drive to work every week? I know some people are spending 100 dollars a week on gas for a typical car. If it goes a lot higher, it may cheaper to stay home than to go to work. This may be another nail in housing. China may be making it so it does not matter what we do here, to keep the price of oil down. We may be helpless at this point, but if we are depending on foreign earnings to keep stocks strong here, there may be a few more rocks, as earnings for companies overseas may be cut in half, if the price of oil stays high. I think there will be a lot of pressure put on Saudi Arabia from here. Some systems are still showing a sea of red like the one below. We may get a rally this week that we can short again. I am biased to the downside at this point, even though a few systems are long. The DOW system on the main page has gone long. The 400 point drop will not show up in the system report, just as some other substantial drops have not. We may gap up 400 points in any case, which would make it meaningless. 1320 looks to be crucial on a weekly SPX chart, if we want to keep the bull party going.


 

June 6, 2008
Will the initials GM stand for General Motorbikes 50 to100 years from now? People are paying up to 30,000 dollars for these. This would be perfect to market in China now. If someone was willing to fund a mass production line of these, I am sure a price drop would be dramatic. The air pollution is so bad there in some cities. May be a great opportunity for someone with very deep pockets. You can not beat 300-600 MPG. I think this is a much better value than a Segway, if you can get one. The NDX may have peaked yesterday, as well as the Russell. We need to have a miraculous up day on Friday to change my view. We did manage to make it back to 640. Friday should be interesting, but I would not be surprised to see a 300 point drop in the DOW from here, as XLF has yet to join the party. Have a great weekend everyone!


June 5, 2008
10 40 AM
We may have just made a possible short term top here.

I have been thinking about why my ex, and I broke up. I was just not a fondue kind of guy. I did not mind fondue once in a while though. Not sure what kind of fondue the market may have in store for us from here, as Mr. Brown says on Halloween, "I got a rock"?  It may get a lot worse, if the Russell is close to finishing this run up here. A drop in the price of oil may give us a bit more of a run up. Traders should be cautious here, as all the Heartbeats are flat on the stock indexes. We may be setting up to test March lows. The two systems I mentioned yesterday now have the same targets on the upside. I would pass on these signals for now, looking to go short on rallies may not be a bad idea.

We may be witnessing the slow extinction of the airline industry. It may have created a new North American race from here, as I think we will going back to traveling by boat in the future, unless you end up being ultra wealthy, and will be able to pay for a ticket on a plane, that may need to use jet fuel derived from ethanol.

June 4, 2008
They keep finding ways to keep the price of houses artificially high. What was the offer? Buy a 1.5 million dollar home, and get a 400,000 home free? When this stops, I believe the market will have bottomed, as the true value homes may finally be realized. The 133 has gone on a sell, and so has the Russell 13 point target one. MAJ is at the bottom band now, that is not always a good sign, as we may see 605-610 on the OEX if we are not stopping here. The chart below is suggesting we have not seen any real damage yet.

Hemp ethanol may be the perfect solution, it grows anywhere, and you can not eat, or smoke it. When oil goes above 200 dollars sometime in the future, the government may finally have a tool against the war on the drugs, with farmers growing hemp instead of illegal plants. I think our future is starting to look brighter now.



June 3, 2008
12 30 PM
XLF may have managed to close the gap on the daily chart. I think we have to continue to be bullish from here. The ethanol debate. I think my brother mentioned to me you get around six crops a year from producing hemp. That may be the perfect solution, if that makes it economical to produce ethanol. Even it is borderline, I can see farmers in Asia plowing fields under to produce hemp instead of crops that are used to fuel problem addictions, we have throughout the world. I think people would be happy to fill their tanks knowing they are helping out the world, using hemp based ethanol, as it would be morally the right thing to do. Let's start the next big movement, hemp ethanol.
 
I believe DB may be key for today. If DB can hold around here, the market may have some rally potential, or the market may start to tank further. There is a US dollar Heartbeat happening. Not much energy today, a knee was buckling on me.

June 2, 2008
8 AM
This may be a good chance to go long here, weekly MACD is that much closer to the zero line, if we get a rally, it should be powerfull this week ,or next. DB may be worth watching from here. It may be a good European proxy if we are to get a rally in the XLF this week.

Friday was disappointing, I think the Russell was keeping the market up, and may have topped near the close. We may not get any real rally started, unless we get the XLF to participate. NDX may be looking a little toppy as well.


May 30, 2008
12 30
POT could collapse at any time, look at the weekly RSI divergence.

Bulls may like the XLF chart I am posting. There looks to be gaps, one just under 26, and the other just under 29. Could mean the market may have some fuel here to start a decent rally. The other NYA system is now long, and so is the 133. We did close just under 640 on the OEX. I suspect the next hurdle will be 660, if we do break to the upside. Have a great weekend everyone!


Go out of your way to help someone if you are able to, the world will be much happier.

May 29, 2008
We may start to develop a big short squeeze from here, that is one of the reasons I can not take down the crash chart I have up. The price of oil may stay high for a very long time. I have heard GM as a whole, is bigger than the economy of Canada. We will all suffer from a rise in the price of oil. 800 on the SPX is a good, very long term target? Until the world turns over to a type of electric car, that may run on gas to power an electric motor, we are just holding ourselves hostage to oil. Diesel trains are powered by electric motors, there must be significant savings in that type of setup. The electric car is the only chance of saving the airline industry, and jobs. Not ethanol, please wake up legislators!

May 28, 2008
12 Noon
I have heard it is not possible to short some stocks. We may be posised for a breakout to the upside at any time from here this week,

The Momentum Cycle section is updated.

All I have to say is, CNBC has very progressive hiring practices!!! Warren Buffet sure seems to be a very smart gentleman. To me, he looks to be casting a negative outlook for the media to print, as he seems to get quoted a lot. Will his outllook come true, or is this the buying opportunity of the century for those that are able to buy? A good contrarian play may be to buy MBI, at around 7 dollars, it is very hard to argue against cheap interest rates. Airlines, a case may be made they will be nationalized here in Norh America. I think there is a very high risk to owning them if oil does manage to make it to 200 dollars a barrel. One of the reasons I say this, is how Bear Sterns was handled. I still think some people are shocked, but one of the reasons may have been China. They may soon be, if they are not already, the number one global powerhouse. Their brand of socailism mixed with capitalism will make them very hard to compete against, but the US has shown it will adapt as it has with Bear Sterns to compete in this global economy, and I do not see that changing. I also believe if there was no oil futures, the price of oil would be a lot higher as we would have seen true panic buying, and selling if people could not have a gotten a guaranteed price for delivery.   

We may not be out of the woods yet, as Adlinex did not move up much with the rally. If we can break above 640 then I think we will be on our way. 

May 26, 2008
Would be a great adventure to travel around in a brand new RV. I have not had any real holidays since I was diagnosed with MS in 2000. I think most of those contests are limited to US citizens. We may see a panic low on Monday, or this was it for the decline. Adlinex did not move much on Friday, so we may have seen it. Master11, is in the area where rallies have started previously. It is not always accurate, but most of the time we will get one. One system I have suggests, eventually, we will get at least 95 SPX points, if we rally from here. The question is, will we see MAJ messing with the lower band first?.


May 23, 2008
No change, but Master11 is approaching the buy zone range. To me daily RSI looks to be in an area where we may get a bounce. The below chart may be suggesting a break either way, as key moving averages look to be converging soon, so some kind of straddle may not be a bad idea. We have two wall of worries now, the credit crunch, and oil.

Readers of this blog, know how I have been ranting for someone to show leadership on the oil issue. If oil stays high, I think what may happen for the airlines, is governments may start to subsidies jet fuel costs in the future, which will not be solving the problem. Individual commuter vehicles may soon become a luxury for some people soon, and may already be for some. I bet car companies may already be experimenting with low powered nuclear vehicles to go along with electric cars, and hydrogen cars. Transportation that does not use oil, is something we should be fighting for. Have a great weekend folks!



May 22, 2008
The 133 is out now, and so is the Russell. It will be a tough call from here as we may see more downside, but I believe so far, this is just  a bull market correction. The NYA one is still short. Will be interesting to see if the 50 day gets tested on the OEX.  I am still looking for 100 point SPX rally, as I stated before with a few down days. We can not discount the weekly MACD buy. The fireworks may come if we get a cross up through the zero line. It will be difficult for the market to rally with 5 dollar up moves in oil.

 
May 21, 2008
I believe the market has to recover almost immediately, if we want to continue the uptrend. PSI is also now at the zero line. One Russell system closed out, and the other is still looking for about 10 points on the downside. The 133 is now short looking for 133 points. The NYA system went short to.


May 20, 2008
The 133 hit again, and is now flat. A couple of Rut systems are short now, with one that will exit on a 13 point drop in the Russell. We are in the grey zone when it comes to MAJ right now, but that could change quick if we are able to push though the Gan lines below. Adlinex is at zero, so anything is possible from here. Gold may be a great short if we are not early.

May 19, 2008
Sideways still or a slow steady trend up? Would fit the bill with RSI jammed at the upper levels. May be all about bullish sentiment on Monday again. 133 will probably exit if we get 100 point rally, and may go long again. I am looking for a possible 100 point rally in the SPX from here with a few down days here in there.

A person from the government of India put it quite well Friday, on Aaron Burnett's CNBC special on India, speaking about the US government policy to subsidize farmers for growing food for fuel. I hope people think about the US policy when they fill their gas tanks, knowing people are rioting, and dieing for scraps of food because we want cheaper gas. The US should rethink bringing back the electric car as seen in that movie, "Who killed the Electric Car? " (People should watch this movie if they have not already.) As I have the feeling that step may not be for off for an Indian car company in the near future, as I believe oil prices may permanently stay above 100. It will be a shame if the US lets a foreign company beat them on this front to, like Toyota may be doing with their hybrid. Maybe the Volt will be out soon. I need to note this. I would think it would be easy to get another Internet portal going, along the lines of Yahoo!, for the type of money MSFT was willing to pay for Yahoo!. I do not think there is any kind technology available to Yahoo!, that could not be made available to another search portal such as Zubee!. For every Pepsi there is a Coke, and I think Zubee! could be a Coke one day. We may be much better value than a Yahoo!.


May 16, 2008
We got the Heartbeat moving on the SPX now to. Hourly RSI, and daily RSI may be peaking around these levels. However weekly RSI is still showing strength. Are we going to get some sideways now with shorts pushing the market higher? Could well be, we only barely closed above 652, and we may be close to getting a peak on PSI. May only be days away. A bullish sign maybe that Master11 did not go deeper. There may still be a few sharp down days still.  Have a great weekend everybody!

May 15, 2008
We may get some more selling maybe, VIX is at important area right now, and may be on the verge of breaking out to the downside. 652 or so looks to be important to the bulls on the weekly Gann chart. Once the OEX manages to close above 652, the OEX may break out to the upside. The daily Gann chart below is still causing problems for the bulls.
May 14, 2008
We have to talk about the market going back to record highs again, possibly this year. If we do not get more selling for Master11 to give a signal from here.

May 13, 2008
No change. Looks like 8 Russell points higher, and the gap on the daily will get filled. Still the NDX looks to have the only strong Heartbeat at the moment. The market may be running out of gas soon like the rest of the world. What a mess on this daily Gann chart. We may be stuck here for a while as sentiment is not at showing a good extreme to me. I am too tired to write this blog at the moment, just hoping this MS fatigue will pass soon.


May 12, 2008
CBOE put volume may be cooperating for the bulls now. Check blogger sentiment in the the morning, and the AII. The NDX is keeping me bullish along with Adlinex. I did forget to mention the NDX system I have is long. The chart below may offer a good target at 1367 if we get more downside on Monday.


May 9, 2008
12:20 PM
The market may be setting up to explode to the upside once weekly MACD crosses above zero, if we can get close to the zero line. Maybe the bloggers will be less bullish next week to coincide with a Master11 buy. Have a great weekend!

Trading systems for the most part work in a bull market, which I believe we have been in for over the last 20 years. No change in the systems. The Heartbeat charts are still bullish. The only one slowing down is the Russell which we currently do not post.  No sign of a slow down in the US dollar yet, the Heartbeat indicator is a great trading tool! Just to add to my comments from yesterday, we need to rally to turn MAJ up. We may see 1360 on the SPX if sentiment indicators are too bullish here.


May 8, 2008
Are world attempts to control the weather a possible cause of what just happened in Asia? We need to seriously consider what we are doing with the weather. We have been experimenting with weather control, we should stop what we are doing now, and find out before another tragedy happens. This is no way directed at just one country. Please do a Google search.

I hope the break came as no surprise to readers of this blog. 1367 looks to be key on the weekly SPX for the bulls, and may hold today. Below that level we may not find support until 1295.  20.99, maybe a key area on the VIX, bulls will not want to see the market stray to far from that area, or daily MAJ maybe suggesting lower. 1870 may come in to play on the NDX. That may be a good spot to start a market rally. The 133 stayed long, and the other NYA system is now long.


May 7, 2008
Something has to give soon. Maybe the market may stay stuck in this range, and needs to fill the Russell gap first. We have flat lined on the below RSI chart before, when the market has broked down previously. I bet any rally of over 70 points, and the 133 closes out. They are keeping us in suspense.

May 6, 2008
Adlinex is at zero again. The 133 DOW system has gone long, and will exit if we get 133 points on the theoretical.  The Russell system is also out. The other NYA system is still short though, are we going to get a quick rally, and then perhaps a test of 640 on the OEX or do we head right to 640?

May 5, 2008
I sure hope we are not missing a wave 3 up here. A good tell may be if the Nasdaq accelerates up from here. I now have a Russell system on a sell as well. The OEX chart below may be indicating the OEX could drop at any time.

May 2, 2008
12 22
Hourly MACD may be trying to roll over here, and it may have been a cycle top today. The NYA system is only about 54% on the short side, so I would not bet the farm when I do post it. I am not seeing any strong divergence at the moment. The question is will the Russell gap be filled before we get any real downside, or will we get some good downside action before we get a strong rally to fill that gap. I do not know, but MAJ is poised to move above the upper band if it stops here. Soybeans in the USA? I never knew they grew there, the treasures one discovers in the states. Vanilla silk soy milk, is the best, or even better than milk in cereal if one can not drink milk. Have a great weekend folks!

The DOW 133 system has gone on a sell, and will look to exit if we get a drop of 133 on the theoretical. We could be breaking out here, but I would be surprised if we do not get a pullback first. We may be at a short term cycle top here if the chart below is correct. Bulls may still have the Russell gap to fill just under 750, if we rally from here. PSI, so far is not impressed with the rally, and the DOW only managed a small move above yesterday's range. Edit: Thursday 10:30 PM. I forgot to mention a NYA system I have went short.


May 1, 2008
12:20 PM
Now some minor divergence on the hourly as well. Might be brutal for longs on Friday.

11:23
There is some good RSI divergence on the 15 min chart now. We should find out how much of a selloff we may get from here soon.

7: 45 AM
Maybe a range bound day today until the employment report comes out Friday morning. It could surprise on the upside as well as VIX has not yet broken out.

Should make for an interesting day today. VIX still has not broken out yet, if bears are lucky we may see 1360 on the SPX. It may have to be very good, market moving news over the next few days, to get a rally with what the daily RSI is showing us right now. PSI, is still close to zero. The 640 Gann line may still be providing support shown just below, and the DOW system did exit on the rally today.


April 30, 2008
12:20 PM
Just wondering if the DOW system closed out the long today. May not be a good sign for the market if we get a selloff from where MAJ is at the moment.

VIX may have the potential to go above 22 if it is going to break up. This may support a 30 point drop in the SPX, where there is a lower Fibonacci band. We are right at the zero line on PSI, so it is possible we could still get more upside, before the market possibly breaks down. Bulls need a big move up, to get MAJ above the upper band. 


April 29, 2008
No change in my opinion, but the DOW system I mentioned has now gone long. It will exit if we get around a 133 point rally. It is unbelievable with what is going on in the real estate market. I was advocating buying real estate before the market took off in America, now here in BC, there is a sign to me, of a housing bubble here as well. People sit around at a popular mall with their cell phones, waiting for the real estate agent to post the next photo listing, they then phone someone else so they can quickly grab the property if they like it. I have know idea how long this has been going on, but I think that is an obvious sign of a top here.