PST
July 25, 2008
What happened Thursday is why I have been suggesting sell the rallies. It may continue to work until we may reach 1200 on the SPX. That should give eventually. Same recommendation today with a possibility of a move above 600 still. I think the best case for the bulls may be a move up to 1360 on the SPX before we may get a major turn down. A move down on the VIX chart below may suggest we may get it, but I would remain cautious for now. There are a few spots of blue in the sea of red now. We may get a choppy market from here. I would be a Boone Pickens supporter if he ever decided to run for President, he has the right idea, but the wind power one will kill a lot of birds. The USA is sending a lot of money overseas for fuel that could be kept at home. Have a great weekend!


July 24, 2008
The Volt needs to be dumbed down. It could be produced cheaper with a simple lead acid battery, or expensive batteries could be leased. EV1 was on the right track, just mass produce it, and help solve some of the problems we face. It may not be all their fault, if the government is pulling some strings, so that electric cars may come on the market slowly. It will be a huge success when a reasonably priced one comes out like the EV1. It would have the potential to overload the "grid". The Volt may be too expensive for some people at this point.

The Beijing effect. This drop in oil should last while the Olympics are going on, as Beijing ( I love that name, it is one Portuguese word for kiss, and it may have some origin with us. My dad thinks I have some Japanese or Chinese. ) has cut back on drivers to help cut pollution. I am sure they are cutting back on anything that is polluting there for the next several weeks. I was even offered a job to teach English there last year, my grammar embarrasses me though, and I dropped out half way though grade 12. Plus I live with MS, and I love trading.

Where to from here? We may still continue to try to head higher. I think the NDX may try, and fill the gap at 1900. The  market may give us sharp moves in both directions from here, while it may try to roll over in the coming days. Don't be surprised by 150 point moves in both directions. Same advice as yesterday.


July 23, 2008
How bearish am I? I do not see long term support on the Russell until it reaches 400. Where I live here in BC, it looks like some communities are suffering a lot, that can only be accessed by a ferry. This must be playing out worldwide. People in Congress should be targeting gas powered cars, so we can try to bring the price of fuel down. Curtail the gasoline automobile, leave the commodities traders alone. They help keep the price of oil down by providing an efficient market. Keep shorting rallies. Continue to buy good junior gold, and oil stocks. Keep in the back of your mind we may still pop above 600 on the OEX. Gold should go to 1500 within a few years.  Zubee! cellphone anyone? We are sitting on a fortune, with Chatpit.com to help market them, if a big player comes along.

July 22, 2008
I miss the comradery of a normal job. Looks like the market is going to continue heading down from here. I still see a sea of red arrows on some systems. DOW 8000 looks to be a realistic target still, as Monday looks to not have offered much hope for the bulls. We may continue to get rallies to short. Heartbeats are still flat. Continue to buy good junior gold, and oil stocks. They may provide the best returns in the coming years. My 2 cents on Yahoo. I hope MSN is not allowed to buy Yahoo. This would leave only two major competitors on the Internet. This would be bad for all of us. Competition is what makes the human race a success. I hope Yahoo! does not take the easy way out. The Internet still has a very long ways to go. If the market is lucky, we may still tag the Gann line just above 600 on the bondspread chart this week, if we gap down today.

July 19, 2008
Wow, does green tea ever work! We need to be cautious with the new shorting rules that have been put in to effect, SKF went from a high of 211.75 to 138 in two days? These are very wild swings, maybe the brokers should be made to answer, if they were responsible for pushing some of the bank stocks down, because of the previous shorting rules. May also mean we can not rule out record highs, if the stock market was being artificially pushed down due to the actions of some of the brokers. It is hard to suggest anything until we see how this plays out. The talks the US are having with Iran may also be significant, as there may be more motivation to work out some kind of deal that would result in keeping the price of oil down, as it looks like my forecast for the airline industry may become a reality. We may have a early indication on Monday when the new rules should be in effect. We may have fewer short squeezes because of the new rules as well.


July 18,  2008
We could only make it to the falling 20 day on the OEX. It looks like Google may fill the gap that I have talked about, but I still do not wish to play the long side. If you did end up going short on the rally, you may be rewarded today. I was motivated to do an update before the close yesterday, as I was kind of outraged that I got a penny stock alert on on my messenger service. We may be setup to rally further, if we gap down on the open. The best play to get short if you are not, may be to wait to see if we get a upper tag on MAJ in the coming days. I will not even try to suggest a target on the downside for today as it is options expiration, but if 560 does not hold on a possible gap down we may have problems. The NDX did not get to fill the gap at 1900. Have a great weekend everyone!

July 17,  2008
12 25 PM
Countrywide, I am glad someone is taking them on. It is very sad that this has even happened to consumers. I just encountered what I think to be a possible scam. I just signed up for the hot stock alerts that was advertised on one of my instant messengers that I have. Guess what? They advertised a penny stock which practically doubled the day the alert was put out. This is so open to abuse if they are allowed to do this with penny stocks. I think I also remember the water purification play from 20 years ago. I think some pump, and dump possible scams get repeated over, and over. They have just found new ways to deliver it, under a legitimate ISP. The press should jump on this.

I still think a simple way to help solve the oil crisis would be to slowly outlaw gasoline powered cars. It would force the creation of new industries. Cars could be powered by ethanol, hydrogen, or electrical. This way we may be able to keep trucking, and fishing going. I think the airline industry is about to go under, if the price of oil stays this high. Already small airports are closing down. I think the airlines will be the next shoe to drop from here.

I think the market is rallying in anticipation of good earnings numbers after the close. May be worth putting on a few shorts here.

July 17,  2008
Nothing has changed, this may have been a perfect bear market rally, as we are within 2 OEX points of my target. Today may tell us, I would not be surprised if we give it all back today. Same recommendation as yesterday, as I continue to look for 1200 on the SPX. Fill the gap at 1900 that I have talked about on the NDX , and then collapse? We may be setting up for that, if we do not head down from here. My OEX target is only two points higher, if we are going there. Adlinex is at the zero line, so we may get a reversal. If we are going higher for a few days, we should burst through the falling 20 day averages on the indexes.


July 16,  2008
Only 14 points away from 1200 now. I think this will give eventually to, I just do not have a conviction the market wants to move up from here. We may get another rally to short at 574, and may be as high as we go from here. Bulls would be betting put volume is signaling a bottom is being made, and PSI has made a strong enough bottom. Keep buying junior gold, and oil stocks as I think they are still your best bet.    

July 15,  2008
7 AM
The MomentumCycle section is updated.

U brew ethanol! It is already starting to happen up here. It is just a matter of time before before people will be having there own mini ethanol plants in their back yard, if oil stays at these prices. Personally, I would prefer 1000 dollar a barrel oil, as I think that would motivate some farmers to grow crops for ethanol instead of illegal drugs, and help solve the drug problems we have. It would motive us to change as well, if we put a tax on it to keep the price high. Use that money to fix infrastructure. I also think the US would rather start their own ethanol industry here, rather than getting into another OPEC situation, by  making South America a possible "ethanol OPEC", and never being held hostage to possible higher fuel prices again. It may be hard for ethanol to make a go of it for the next several years, if what this guy is saying will happen. http://www.jimrogers.com/ Congress may want to listen to what he is saying before they may end up pushing commodities trading overseas, he makes sense. High prices may be here to stay no matter what they do, which may end up costing people more money, just to show they are trying to do something. Keep buying junior gold, and oil stocks. Look what is already happening with inflation in New Zealand. 574 maybe as high as the OEX can go on one Gann chart. Heartbeats are still flat. DOW 8000 may be a good target from here, and it could happen any time.


July 14,  2008
I would like to see one day, zubee.com sponsoring a race car, and perhaps a space mission flight. Probably would not happen in my life time, but it is still a nice dream to have. This planet will expire one day, and colonizing other planets, I think will be one of the ways we can keep the human race going, if we do not use up all our oil.

The OEX almost tagged my 560 target. The market action may suggest we may still see 560 this week. Two stocks I will mention today, that I think are worth watching, as one has gotten very cheap, are LVLT, and NT. These may turn out to be extremely good long term investments at these prices, if the world does not fall apart. Level3 is also one of our backbones. We may be setup for a good bounce here if the OEX made a low. Any reasonable dip may be a good for just a bounce. I think it would be safer to see if we hit 1200 before entertaining a long. I made a new discovery today, sesame seaweed rice chips. Yum!


July 11,  2008
I still think down may be the easiest path here. Just want to note on GM, they could be the buy of the century at this price. I think they recorded record sales in Europe the other day, now if they could have some of that success over here. They are still a long way away I think, but the government would be even more motivated with some of the auto makers as there are a lot of jobs involved. 560 level if you want to consider a long from here. One indicator that may be suggesting we are making a low this week, may be weekly CCI. It is suggesting to me the market may be a screaming buy here, or we may be close. We could still get 560 on the OEX, but I am far from perfect. It would be better if we got a strong weekly RSI divergence as well. It may be prudent to put on a few longs in case we do not see 560, or stay flat. Some ethanol stocks may be a great buy here as well, as some are very beaten up. If we do rally from here, we may get another short setup, if we do not continue plunging. Have a great weekend everyone!


July 10,  2008
My guess is we may make an attempt to tag the next support line on the bondspread chart, if we can not hold the current one. 560 looks to be key if we are to keep the bull alive, if you experienced the run up in gold to the 800 level, in the eighties, I have the feeling we are getting close to a run up in gold to the 1500 level. I think Google may need to fill the gap before the stock market may make an attempt to put in a real rally. Hearbeats are still flat. 


July 9,  2008
So far this looks like a dead cat bounce off that long term support line, I mentioned yesterday. Note the sharp rally in the Russell. We need to see a good rally today to show us that we may have the potential to reach 600 on the OEX. 560 may still be in the cards. Junior gold, and oil stocks still look good to me.


July 8,  2008
Are we close enough now? I still think we have the potential to see our 560 target get hit this week, but we may be in the ballpark now, to see some kind of rally start. Selling rallies may be good until we may get our 560 target hit.  As the DOW system on the main page is on a buy, that chances have diminished of getting a real crash from here in the short term. We also look to be at an old support line. Fibo MACD is slowing down on the daily for the bulls. Still recommending the junior gold, and oil stocks.


July 7,  2008
You have to respect the market, as it will go where it wants to. If we do not rally 300 DOW points very soon, we should hit my OEX target in short order. I have two views, first the negative one, we may close the Google gap on the downside first, which may push the whole market down. Positive one, one reason we may rally before we may continue tanking is, the market may need to fill the gap around 1900 on the NDX on the upside. Sell the rallies, with the risk being a 300 point DOW move up.  


July 3,  2008
The TSX really tanked, some of the major oil stocks, and gold stocks may be crashing here along with the market, as I had suggested they might. I would keep buying the junior companies, as they may rebound the sharpest, when the bounce comes. I have the feeling they will be a good play for the next five years, or so. One good site to find junior gold stocks is here: Kitco. Good stocks may not be safe for the next five years. You know my thoughts on where I think the OEX is going.  Heartbeat charts, to me have proven to me to be a very powerful tool. I leave you with a VIX chart to contemplate. Have a great long weekend!

July 2,  2008
I have to say it, the market is making our Gann charts look like works of art. I would not try to catch the bottom, and I am going to give the same advice as yesterday. There is no ideal trade setup that I see, other then we may have a chance to tag 600, if we even get a rally. I still like my 560 target, sell rallies.

Green tea instead of earl grey would help one loose weight to.

July 1,  2008
I would like to talk about breakfast. I have heard if you eat a big breakfast you will lose weight, as that increases your metabolism. This a personal view based on what works for me right now, I think it may be BS, unless they are saying all your meals are small. I subscribe to what I call the toast diet. I usually only have two pieces of toast for breakfast, and a cup of eg tea. The tea, not because Capitan Picard drinks it, only because it has the herb bergamont in it, and is good for your stomach like wine is. I do have a big breakfast maybe once a week. If I eat a big breakfast, and two other normal meals during the day, I gain weight, as I no longer play soccer once a week to burn off the extra calories. I think some media may be doing a disservice to the public by advocating a big breakfast. The toast and eg tea diet works for me, while living with Multiple Sclerosis, and may help others. I try not to drink wine or beer if I can to. That is like drinking a glass of sugar. Only 8 more pounds to go!

Sell the rallies still looks to be a good plan, my Gann chart still  looks to be in play, as well as my target. If we are oversold enough, it is possible we may get  a rally back up to the 600 level on the OEX, before the market may continue to head down. I would continue buying junior gold, and oil stocks. The DOW system on the main page has gone back on a buy.



June 30,  2008
The 560 level looks to be an area I think we may, and I do mean may, that we may see some kind of bounce develop. No recommendation other than what I said on Friday. I do feel for the auto workers. I hope this will lead to more jobs, if the cars companies act in a postive manner.

June 27,  2008
I am updating at 6 PM today. I do not get data for my other program until 8 PM. We may hold here for a day, or so, but I would not be willing to make that bet. I am showing a weekly OEX chart, around 560 looks to be the last line in the sand. Good speculation plays may be the junior gold stocks, and possibly some junior oil stocks as well. I suspect even if they crash that is where we could see a significant rebound, as high oil, and gold prices may be here to stay. Have a awesome weekend everyone!


June 26,  2008
10 15 AM
Goldman Sachs may have been reading my blog to, and see the danger of what may happen with GM, and others, if the price oil does not drop to 100. It is going to take some time for auto makers to change some products to electric, or hydrogen.

We are getting a little oversold now, there is some RSI divergence on the daily. I would not be surprised if we got some rally from here, but I am not making any long recommendation, unless you find a already low priced tech stock, that has been beat up.

Tired today. We still held up, but the rally was sold. May be a warning of what is ahead. Crude still needs to collapse, but it looks to be heading in the right direction, along with gold. Adlinex made it to the zero line. If we do rally, I am showing the OEX chart with fib zones, in case we get a rally longer than a day. Sell the rallies I think, may still be a good plan. Heartbeats are still flat.


June 25,  2008
The gap at 691.64, may be get filled on the Russell before we see any upside. If we get a rally today, it may be a great short. We may be seeing a crash developing right before our eyes. Maybe the elections are keeping me cautious. Everything usually crashes when we get one. USO, gold, gold stocks, oil stocks. Maybe some good money to be made. My friend Bob, pointed out in a charting program the DOW may be set to crash. If that happens, oil should crash to. They all look about the same on most charts. No other suggestion than shorting rallies from here. The market may hold around here for a little while, but look at the resistance above.


June 24,  2008
Only 10 pounds away from 200 now. I have been going for longs walks, until I get my next attack. The NYA system that I do not post is back on a buy, and sorry there will be no further blog posts on this system. There are some good divergences on daily CCI along with adlinex, but put volume dropped rather fast. We may get some spurts to the upside, but I venture we may start to see some more sideways action, or we may drop sharply. USO has yet to take out the recent highs, and may provide a small spark for the market, if we are to get  a pullback in oil. There looks to be resistance 10 or so OEX points higher.
 
 
June 23,  2008
Midnight
There is a good possibilty oil maybe topping here, if USO is any indcation.


It is all about GM, and the others. I do not think there will be a buyout like Bear Stearns was, if worse comes to worse. They need to get on the electric car band wagon fast. Strong legislation would have helped them to diversify their businesses, instead they are now being held hostage to oil. They need to seriously change their leadership, as they have had well over 20 years to take the steps to change away from mostly oil powered vehicles. Hopefully they will see their ways, and implement the changes, or legislators will do it for them. Maybe this is just warning shot on how high oil may go, and there is still time to make meaningful change.

PPT, had to have been very active Friday. We could have easily been down 500 points. There is elections coming. I would not be surprised if we rally 100 points, or more from here, as it seems everyone must be short this market. One little ray of hope for the bulls. CBOE put volume may be peaking for a bounce. The Heartbeats are still flat, and may be suggesting if we start to rally, it may be a good short again. I hope you find the fib zones useful on the below OEX chart.



 June 20,  2008
My brother, who works for a major battery company says lead acid batteries are getting a bad rap. I figure in the long run, they will probably end up leading to the development of the electric car. People will just have to adjust to a slower pace in life. GM was on to something with the EV1. Bring them back!

The DOW system on the main page is now on a sell, so is the NYA one that I do not post. There may still be a little more upside as the NDX looks like it may still run up a little further, if we do not collapse here. Have a great weekend everyone!


June 19,  2008
7 30 AM
There may be some rally potential as there is some daily RSI divergence in XLF.

A work of art will always be a work of art. Camelina? Sure why not, it should all come down to finding out which plants will be more economical to grow, assuming the same energy output is achieved from them, as a lot of other products have been produced from hemp in the past. There used to be a thriving hemp industry until someone decided it was not a good. Wear hemp clothing so ethanol may be cheaper? I have always liked the farmer look. Should be interesting times the next 100 years, as we may go back to a bicycle economy with cell phones. The Royal Bank of Scotland must read my blog, but  they do seem more optimistic, as they are only looking for SPX ,1050. If too many people are thinking the same, it usually does not happen. My thinking at the time when I made the chart, was if we get a spike down, the 800 level would be the bottom peak. It should have happened already, if the fed had not intervened. The jury is still out on whether that was a good to do, as it may have prolonged what may happen from here. You will not see me making a long recommendation, but if we get a rally, it may come from the 600 level if it holds, and you are willing to hold overnight as 585 is close now. I am posting a VIX chart tonight, as usual the Gann charts are updated.


June 18,  2008
The ethanol debate is far from over. Cellulosic ethanol is now commercially viable, but as a person with no real knowledge of this industry, I can not understand how you would get more energy out of straw ethanol over hemp ethanol. The world will one day shake this prejudice. The Bush years are almost behind us now. McCain' voice sounds a lot like Mr. Bush, based on that, I do not think he has much of chance as people are also looking for change.

There is now a better chance that the lower Gann line, around the 600 level may be tagged. I think it is quad expiration, so anything is possible. My guess is, we may not get a big move until after Friday. I have added two trend lines. As long as we stay in them, we may not be headed down until after Friday. Adlinex is now at zero. There are a lot of shorts, if we are to get a short squeeze, it may start around the 600 level.


June 17, 2008
I have a confession, I love Tang! Maybe that is what the market needs to get going somewhere. If we are to get a rally soon, I would like to see the OEX tag the lower Gan line first. MAJ, and Master11 are where we could see a rally. I do not see an ideal setup unless we tag the lower Gan line. The below OEX chart is not suggesting anything to me. We look to be stuck in the middle of a range.


June 16, 2008
Poverty, guns, or lack of genuine gun control, may be one of the reasons education may be falling behind. Until some type of gun control is put in place, we can only hope. Young people, and teachers need a atmosphere that is conducive to learning, not one of fear. Gun control may also help address the gang problems that many major cities now seem to face.

We can not say we were not surprised by Friday, it is possible we may run up another 300 Dow points, but I think it is best that we remain cautious. It may not have been a good sign that VIX dropped back down so fast, as the Volatility Indicator gave a signal. We may be just days away from a sharp move. We may just turn down on Monday, as MSI is right at the zero line. I would have been happier if we had tagged the lower Gann line. Google may be setting up to be a great short, as I believe the massive gap will be filled on the downside, when we get a market correction. Their deal with Yahoo may not get approved. Yahoo calls, may still be a good idea. I have no idea when a severe correction may happen, as we are getting closer to elections, but we may still be in this one.


June 13, 2008
Yup, Friday the 13. Good a day as any to bring this up, all defense stocks may be vulnerable to a large selloff from here. The market does yet know who may end up in the White House, but it may be a sure bet if the Democrats get in, or any hint that they are going to win, defense stocks may selloff in a big way. This could be the third strike against Dow. The  weekly SPX chart is saying to me, we may still break down hard, it we get bad news today. There is room for another rally like the one we just saw, it could be rather sharp, as we are oversold on some intraday, and daily indicators. Ultimately it may just be another shorting opportunity, if we get one. We may get the PPT, if the market looks like it may be setting up setting to break the1260 level. Have a great weekend everyone.


June 12, 2008
It was a excellent, interview on the closing bell with Maria Bartiromo, and Meredith Whitney. You could tell Meredith Whitney was nervous, but was she ever couragous to come out with her opinion, as I am sure it may have upset a lot of people. Maybe two of the most powerful woman on Wall Street at the moment. If people were listening to this one, a great case was heard by me, that would be cause to throw any Elliott, Cycles, or TA out the window, if you are trying to time the market. It looks like we will see 800 SPX, as I have been suggesting. They may still help to guide us on the path to that target. We may even still see record highs, from short convering rallies, as I do not see how it is possible, one would not be thinking of shorting the market, from what was said in the interview. I have posted two Gann charts, there is still a lot of room below 600, if we do not stop there, I  think we should wait to see if PSI goes down further, before trying the long side. If bulls are lucky we may get 100 point Dow rally. I think recent support will be taken out though before we may get a good short covering rally. The PPT is still out there, but they may be waiting to possibly rally the market close to elections, as I suggested. Still no life with the Heartbeat.


June 11, 2008
10 15
Unbelievable that the market is not down a lot more with oil being up 6 dollars. We may be setting up to take out the lows on the Gann chart next week. Fisherman here are keeping their boats docked due to the high price of fuel. The fed does not need to raise interest rates, the price of oil is giving us the equivalent.


The market does not want to show it's hand. I get the feeling there may still be a lot of shorts out there, but that bet may not be worth making. I would wait, and see if we get a rally above 630 to short on the OEX from here. There is a nagging feeling they may just drop the market from here, as I think they would prefer to have the market rallying into the elections.

June 10, 2008
Dylan has one of the best jobs in the world, he gets to work with so many beautiful woman. I had a job like that before I got sick, and I miss the people there now. Where he is at, I could image what the 1930s were like, if one ever needed to cast a movie in that era, I know where one could find people to play the role. I think I grew up in the wrong era. Yes, I am being very complimentary, as I get a lot valuable information on the stock market from CNBC. Impeccable!

1930s, we should be concerned as it looks like my crash suggestion chart, I posted at the beginning of the year, may come to true. Maybe a slow controlled crash. Political scenario may be paramount at this point. I do not believe a woman has ever had this much power to make a real change in world events. Bottom line, if Hillary gets to be on the same ticket as Obama, there may be a real chance they will win. People's perception seems to be if the Democrats win, it is not good for the stock market, which I do not believe to be true, but it may have been one of the causes of the 400 point selloff. I believe we need change, as these people have overstayed their welcome. Fuel oil is a plague the world has never needed, and has only been a cause for war. They are starting to feel the oil pressure now. Electric cars may be setting up to start the next industrial revolution, if we are lucky from here. I hope traders have made some money from my suggestions. It is possible, I would not even have been doing updates, but choices for employment have been taken from me, this is a challenge for me, and helps take away some boredom of being disabled. I leave you with one Gann chart, if you are looking to catch a falling knife. Heartbeats have helped stay on the right side.

June 9, 2008
9 45 AM
The MomentumCycle section is updated
A quick note on USO. The Heartbeat is only flat on the daily at the moment, but we have it ticking on the monthly, and on the weekly. Dip buying on USO may be a good idea. Heartbeats are still flat on other indexes, suggesting we have not finished with the downside.

We got a rock of oil it looks like. A 50 dollar move down in oil, and we get a 500 point move up, if XLF was not responsible for the selloff. The big move in oil may also cause a labor shortage. How many people have day care, and drive to work every week? I know some people are spending 100 dollars a week on gas for a typical car. If it goes a lot higher, it may cheaper to stay home than to go to work. This may be another nail in housing. China may be making it so it does not matter what we do here, to keep the price of oil down. We may be helpless at this point, but if we are depending on foreign earnings to keep stocks strong here, there may be a few more rocks, as earnings for companies overseas may be cut in half, if the price of oil stays high. I think there will be a lot of pressure put on Saudi Arabia from here. Some systems are still showing a sea of red like the one below. We may get a rally this week that we can short again. I am biased to the downside at this point, even though a few systems are long. The DOW system on the main page has gone long. The 400 point drop will not show up in the system report, just as some other substantial drops have not. We may gap up 400 points in any case, which would make it meaningless. 1320 looks to be crucial on a weekly SPX chart, if we want to keep the bull party going.