OEX TRADER
November 11 1999 Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
I don't know if today will be any different. I think the next move of any significance will be down if the ratio oscillator and the 1440 minute bar chart are any indication . Look for a short entry at the 729-733 level still, and use 736 as a stop. At the money puts. Will send an e-mail update if the trade is triggered and our stop isn't run if I want to hold the trade overnight. HEAR has made a 40% move in two days. I expect we will see twenty before the year is out. Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.November 10 1999
We just missed missed our short entry, and thus an over ten point drop. I should have marked this old trendline on the five minute chart as an aiming point. In all honesty, I probably would have kept you short as long we were playing with the house's money. The NYA system has gone on a sell. In analyzing two charts tonight,one can see that they have the 723 level and the 711 as possible points of support and resistance. A close below 711 may indicate a sharper move to the downside. I think in all likelihood the 706 level will hold today, and we probably won't close above 723. Closing above 723 may indicate a breakout to the upside. Please note I used the word "close" for the 711 and 723 level. Today may be another day for day-traders.November 9 1999
I try to be market-neutral, and let the price action itself tell me which way money flow wants to go.For this,I use my indicators, Gann charts and trendlines. We have safely played the short side and we haven't gotten burned. There is money to be made on both sides."If we break out here above the 724 level on the Gann hourly we could go higher. I am not recommending holding any short over night unless we close below 715. I won't be around for the close." {This was from the intraday www e-mail update.}
I was watching one minute cum vol. and intraday breadth going into the close, which were both moving up before I left. The 710 level was a good exit point if you took it,although it wasn't quite a Fib hit. This could be a great short setup here. The 732 level may be a perfect entry point; at the money puts, but use a 3 point stop and only a small position. I am little leery of making this recommendation as breakouts to new highs can be rather powerful if that is in fact where we are going. The NDX system has gone on a sell, locking in a nice gain, and the OEX system has gone on a sell as well. I wish they had come down on Microsoft years ago. The web would have been much better now if companies had been free to develop new technologies without Microsoft's interference.
November 8, 1999
"We got a good entry this morning. We may still see the 733
level on Monday. I recommend selling half of your position
here."This is from the e-mail intraday update sent 14 minutes before the OEX closed on Friday, November 5th. Sometimes when you get these astro hits they are off by a day. I was going to recommend going short again if we did rally on the open. We also tagged this trendline on the hourly which has been posted here for many days. Sorry... I was off by a few points in my calculation of the daily Gann chart. I recommend staying short. Use the 733 level as a stop for the remaining puts. MSI could make a pivot any day for the bulls, but I am also looking at the ratio oscillator which clearly is showing a peak. The same chart also has FIB support around the 710 level. The 1440 min bar chart may be suggesting that the 700 level could be a good exit point. Look for an e-mail update if I change my position. I suggest staying short if you got a good entry point. I would like to see the 693 level get tagged first. The OEX system went back on a buy. November 11th may be the next possible turning point. Cheers Mr. Bill Gates!
November 5, 1999
We may have already seen the high, or we may peak at the 726 level today if we get above today's high. If you take the possible short trade setup, I would use the 737 level( just above a Fib zone) as a stop. At the money puts. If we break down on the open,a consequent break below the 709 level will confirm the trend is down. The 30 minute bottoms three hours after the open.November 4, 1999
Stock Symbol: HEAR. The other great thing about the technology is you can talk long distance without any charge. I suspect advertising will pay for the service. http://www.hearme.com/ is the web site address.
As for the OEX, 717 looks to me to be a key level, a close above may suggest the 733 level. The NYA system has gone back on a buy. It may be best to wait until tomorrow to enter a short trade.November 3, 1999
Sorry folks... it appears that the 707 level may have been a perfect entry on the long side.Unfortunately, it just came too close to the end of the day. All the systems are now on sells except for the NDX system. Not much has changed for today other than the fact that the 30 minute may be primed for another bounce on the open. If you short it,be aware that I have the feeling the cycle section may take you short again in the morning. As long as the OEX doesn't hold above the 715 level for too extended a period, I think the short side may be a good bet, if we do in fact rally. If you are going to play the long side here, it is with Trix rolling over, and thus you would be looking for CMO to make one more peak. Twin Peaks may also be marking a top.November 2, 1999
My apologies once again, and also for a few of the charts not being updated. I have considered switching providers, but this outage problem seems to be the norm once or twice a year. I am not sure if the grass is greener on the other side, and usually the site is quick to access.Wow, Bob from MomentumCycles sounds a little bit bearish! I am sorry bulls, but it may be the last hurrah this week. All I know is that I would feel a lot better if those on-line trading commercials; went off the tube. It may take a
sound beating from the market to make that happen. The question is, " do you bet the farm here on the short side?" Well, the NDX system went back on a buy. Cum vol. may just be making a last hurrah here. Mercury goes retrograde on the fourth I believe. You saw what happened in August the last time that happened. The intraday system is currently short and will exit if the OEX rallies four point intraday. MAJ on the daily is close to the upper band. If this is truly a trending market we should see a breakout above the band. Hourly MAJ tells a different story while the 30 minute looks primed for a blast off. I think this 15 chart best illustrates what I am looking at. The 705 level is also where the 4 day average is at. I would look to go long at the 707 level. ( in case we only get a partial gap fill , which would be very bullish). Use 697 as a stop, at the money calls , but only take a small position. Look for an e-mail update late in the afternoon. Those not on the e-mail list I would close out the calls at the recent high of 723 if the trade is triggered. I won't try and forecast any further.November 1, 1999
It looks like this is going to be a very short commentery. I see the 704-705 level as holding today if you want to try the long side here. Use a five point stop and look to enter a short at the 733 level, five point stop. I suspect we may just see a trading range for the next few days. The best short setup may come on the 4th or 5th from the 745 level.
October 29, 1999
It doesn't get more exciting than this. The 30 minute cycle seems to be bottoming almost perfectly on a regular basis right now. The NYA system and the OEX system have gone back on buys. It would be nice if they caught every single big move. I knew that short trade set up was a a waste of time with the US dollar breaking out. This momentum may last a few days. I think the 718 level may be a good momentum peak today if you dare to try the short side. I am not sure if the cycle section has already posted this chart, but the 711-718 level looks to be tough sledding here. The intraday system is on a buy here and will close out the trade only if the OEX falls 4 points intraday. I was working with someone from Omega to implement the e-mail system updates but he went on a holiday. Great calls guys!For October 28, 1999
It doesn't get much more boring than this. The 675 level was a good exit point. The 30 minute bottoms right on the open, and the US dollar may have broken out from a downtrend as mentioned in the e-mail update.This may be bullish for bonds and stocks. I am cautious here. We are in no man's land when it comes to most indicators here. The 668-670 level I have as support. I think the 692 level needs to be broken for a breakout to the upside. NAZ cum vol. is also at a "make it or break it " point. The NYA on top, which I don't usually post, is also at a "make it or break it" point. I think the NYA will lead the market down if it doesn't break out today. We may make a run for the 668-670 level. My best guess is to look for a short entry at the 687-690 level. Use a five point stop if you take the trade: at the money puts. I don't think it is a perfect trade setup, though. You will get burned if you are on the wrong side here. The 30,50,and 150 are all bunched together. Astro has the same setup going into the 5th as it did earlier during this month if we do in fact rally into that time frame. I will say it first- DOW 20,000 next year. No problem now that MSFT and INTC are joining the index. ;-)For October 27, 1999
You couldn't have asked for a better entry. Maybe I should have used a higher strike, but I felt we would get a sharper drop on Tuesday. I am not so sure now if we will see the 660 level. A strong move above 685 may negate that possible scenario. I see the 675 or 673 level as a possible target today. However, all the systems have gone on sells. Usually you can expect a 150 to 200 point down day. The intraday system is on a sell, and will close out the position if the OEX rallies 4 points intraday. You may want to use the 687 level as a stop today. If the dollar index holds the 98.24 level we may get a sharp rally. Tuesday was a perfect example of how well Bollinger bands can work if you were trading the S&P intraday on the downside.For October 26, 1999
The OEX system went on a sell. Today should be interesting. I really don't know if I can catch a good entry point today. The five minute chart looks perfectly set up for a sharp break here, and the oddlots are at their lower band. This makes me think a short entry here may be low risk trade. Buy the OEYWLs under 8 dollars. I am not using a stop here. Put on a small position. If I am right we should only get a rally up to the 685 level today. A subscriber asked me if I give S&P futures recommendations. I am sorry,but I don't. My only tip for futures traders is to use a 10 minute chart with a ten period Bollinger band. Of course you have to establish the trend for the day. If you are trading Futures I really believe you should have at least $100,000 to play with, and you should only trade one contract. Add other contracts if the trade is going your way. The reason I advocate such a high amount of capital to start with is that you want to take emotion completely out of the equation. I also believe the OEX is the best proxy to use. I see trendlines get hit on a regular basis with the OEX, and the futures usually follow. I think it is a fallacy to believe the futures are leading the market.For October 25, 1999
689 was another good entry point. I just didn't think we would get much of a pullback. I expect the 673 level to hold. I am not recommending to go long there. The DOW system went on a sell. It may lock in another nice gain if we gap up on the open. RSI shows we may be close to a peak on the 1440 min chart but CMO still has lots of room. CMO on the 3vol bar chart is close to peaking though, and TRIX may be rolling over here. The only trade setup I see is to look for a short entry above 693, but I would only put on a small position. Use 698 as a stop; at the money puts. This is not a high confidence trade. I am thinking we may just go sideways today.For October 22, 1999
"Just catching up on the news. IBM has a gap to fill at the 86 dollar level. Sell half 1/2 your puts on a probable gap down today below 100 or be greedy and hold for the 86 level. I suspect the gap will be filled rather quickly when it does happen, so put you orders in ahead of time at level where they may have a good chance of getting filled. It may not happen until next week." From the e-mail update for traders that aren't on the e-mail list" Now if only MMM would come in as well. I would close out the remainder of the IBM puts into any weakness today if we get it. The 667 level was a good entry point for traders that decided to play the long side. I am actually worried about making a short trade recommendation here. The 685 level has a run away gap to fill while I see the 689 level has being the most probable point for a rally to fail. A lot of people are trying to short this market. I have to wait for a better setup, but I think the 689 level is your best bet for the short side. I just don't see a big move coming on the downside yet. You might get lucky and see a ten point move on the downside, but it may mean holding overnight. Hourly cum vol. is above the 30 which means whipsaws.For October 21, 1999
It is getting to be an expectation that when all the systems at OEXTRADER go on buys readers can almost always expect a big move up. I did warn we could get a dramatic move in either direction. Bulls get the nod here; we should see the 667 level hold today. It is most likely that 667 will hold as a closing price. I am not sure anyone wants to hold a position overnight. The vol. bar chart is right at a possible reversal level {or you might call it neutral}. All of my indicators are no longer oversold. The only indicator nagging me is MSI. No trade recommendation tonight.For October 20, 1999
We got stopped out for a decent gain {using a trailing profit stop}. The DOW system avoided going on a sell, and the NYA system gave a buy signal. I still don't have any trade setup that I am highly confident about today;especially after looking at the charts more closely{as mentioned in the e-mail intraday update}. I may provide an e-mail update Wednesday if something jumps out at me, but it is more likely that I will go golfing today. The market could move rather dramatically in either direction here. Be careful you don't get caught on the wrong side. My personal bias is for higher prices if we can close above 665. You might get a good short entry there as well. Hourly cum vol is close to a "make it or break it" point.For October 19, 1999
Sorry,but I forgot to mention this yesterday.The 30 minute cycle was also projected to bottom one half hour before the close. We could gap up very easily on the open as I suggested in the e-mail update. Traders that remained long should trail a 5 point stop. The entry point was also a perfect Gann line tag on the daily Trix chart which may also be turning up here with some other indicators. As you can see, a lot of my intraday indicators are still somewhat oversold. This market could very easily break either way here. Hourly cum vol. is still bearish, but these are the conditions that can spark sharp rallies. My other target on the downside is 630 and 618. Today should be a key date if we can get a break above 661-662( which is also the 50 bar average on the 30 minute).If that happens we could see the 667-673 level.If what happens instead is a break of the low made on Monday the result will probably be the 618 level. The NYA system went on a sell, and I also think the DOW system may give a sell tomorrow.
