Looks like we may have some weakness on the open. Yesterday's selloff pretty well killed any chance at record highs this week (unless the Fed pulls another fast one at 2:00 p.m) as cumulative volume started to drop right after the open on the 15 minute chart . The volume/breadth bands are now in the oversold zone and can go deeper but we should be looking for a long entry setup. RSI on the 30 minute chart was diverging the whole afternoon so I think we will get a healthy bounce this morning after some possible weakness. I have drawn a trendline at 546 which I think would be a possible good entry point this morning but we may not drop that far on the open. That is the target if we get it, use 543 as a stop. Previous support at 550 is the target for day traders. Stay long only if the OEX closes above 554 for position traders. At the money October calls (550 strike). Jim has an update tonight, I think you will find he adds another dimension to the page. The Gann line on the NDX made an almost perfect tag ,if you took the trade I would be looking to get out today. No change with MSFT. I will post the 15 minutes chart around an hour before the market close just hit reload on the chart..

They are playing mind games with the bears as evident by the sell off at the end of the day. The OEX found support at the lower trend line again but that may have just been because it ran out off time, however cumulative volume on the 15 minute chart was turning up while this was happening and bears may pay the price this morning. Did someone know Intel’s earnings report ahead of time? Anyway this should bode well for MSFT today. GM and IBM look to be breaking out here so the OEX could easily reach the 563 level. The volume/breadth indicators look to also be oversold. I wouldn't yet go short, I have to entertain the possibility that the OEX could come close to making a record high this week look at the NDX . It is so tempting to go short at that Gann line if I could afford the puts.

Is this is it for the pullback? Maybe, so far the lower trendline as held on the 30 minutes chart but MAJ is already reaching for the upper band and cumulative volume hasn't yet broken above the lower average so we may be set up for some weakness this morning that may possibly lead to a rally to at least the middle trendline on the 30 minute chart possibly even to the upper trendline. The volume/breadth indicators are still hanging around the middle band which means the market can break either way here. I am still looking at the 563 level to setup a possible short trade but I need some more evidence as to market direction, playing the long side right now I think can be compared to dancing on the edge of a tall building but as long as the VIX indicator is sill below the lower band and this Trin indicator hasn't tagged the lower band, I have to give the bull the benefit of the doubt. Here is this week's sentiment numbers. On another note, I only caught the end of the story on CNN, the story alluded to a per hour charge for Internet access being discussed by some U.S. government body. If something like that passes these Internet high flyers could take a series tumble. I found this last night surfing: NetBoost , I use a phone line with a 56k modem to access the web and it made a significant difference, Gifs have never been this fast.

And the site continues to grow! Jim Curry a full time trader I think will help us to improve our market timing. Welcome Jim. He is using a Macintosh and learning how to create web pages. We are still tying to iron out some kinks. I don't know of a web site so chock-full of information for traders other than the OEX Trader.

The bears cried Uncle, Popa and *%&#. RSI has maxed on the NYSE but I don't think that means much other than we may get a shallow one day pullback. This Trin indicator still hasn't tagged the lower band. If it repeats we could be two days away from a top. If you just have to have a one day short trade look to the 563 level on the OEX just underneath a parallel Gann line. The OEX still hasn't broken above another Gann line(559.30) that I follow but I would leery of the short side if it does. We could see a top right on the open in the context of a shallow pullback. MSFT looks to be about to break out here and PVI is also showing a possible breakout pattern. The December 110 calls might be a good play but you don't want to pay more than 6 for them(Thanks GB).

The OEX found support just under the lower channel line and then cumulative volume kicked in and the OEX broke above the upper channel line. I am not going to chase this market up. I will give the bull it's due. I see at least the 566 level and possibly the 570 level. This breakout seem to be similar to the market run-up in July, the market started to turn when cumulative breadth tagged the white moving average line, CCI also went flat at the time as it is doing now and the Bollinger Bands on another Trin indicator I use started to narrow as they are doing now. I am now using the other VIX indicator on the index page. Have a great weekend!

The OEX followed my script almost exactly unfortunately unless you added to positions at the 552 target zone which also happened to be marked by the yellow Gann line. But where to from here is what is important. The OEX -3 volume bar chart is suggesting further downside . The fifteen minute chart suggests some rally this morning but I like how cumulative volume appears to breaking down intraday. The half hour chart I think paints the best picture using the channel lines from the five minute chart. 550 now looks to be a good target to enter into some puts for a day trade or to position yourself for a possible break of the lower channel line (544) which is what I am trying to do. This market could still defy gravity and make a stab at the 570 level so it may be best to enter into puts slowly. I am also looking for a possible break of the rising Gann line (537)on the OEX -3 volume bar chart over the next few days which I think may eventually take the OEX to the 510 level. You want to be holding puts before that possibly happens. I don't give this bull it's due yet as the 100 day momentum is flirting with the zero line.

The volume/breadth indicators have tagged their upper bands. The OEX -3 volume bar chart is still looking toppy. If you are already short like I am, stay short as long as the OEX doesn't make a major break above 552 today. The 548 level on the five minute chart maybe all the OEX can muster. A down close today will keep me short or if the OEX closes up only a few points. The links below have been updated.

Well the market rallied right into my target area and made a minor pullback. Right now I think traders should be using rallies to sell calls into. We may still go a lot higher but when the volume/breadth indicators approach their upper bands it is not wise to be long usually. Elliotticians note the previous consolidation ended at the lower bands. I am currently holding the 550 puts but I think my entry may have been premature as I think the OEX may still take a stab at the 550 level. It looks like we are forming a top on the five minute chart with maybe 546 or so being the upper end of the range. VIX #2 is now at a possible reversal point. It is a mixed bag with the intraday charts with the OEX-3 volume bar , suggesting we are topping out while the other charts: 15 minute chart and the 25tick chart are suggesting weakness on the open. The OEX -3 volume bar chart acts almost like an hourly chart. I am looking for consolidation today but a hint of a small top is there. Note the NYSE closed just under the 150 day. Here is this week's sentiment numbers.

So much for resistance this is looking really good for the bulls so far with the NYSE finishing near the highs. I think the five minute chart show likely areas for support. I am still targeting 547 but 545 might be all she wrote. The surprise could be that we easily power through those levels as well. The 25tick chart shows promise. I am trying to ride this up as far as possible. Use 530.25 as a stop. All the links below have been updated.

Why is it every time we get a sharp up move we get new subscribers? Is their a lot of bearish advisory services out there? Well we are not gurus here but we do try to do our best to position traders for the next move in the market. We don't always agree either. That being said, should bears abandon all hope. Yes. All we may get here is a minor pullback if this indicator acts the same as in previous thrusts up. The moves didn't end until MAJ broke back above the lower band. However DOW PVI didn't turn up yesterday and the OEX should be sitting at previous resistance right on the open. We are also right back at resistance that has yet to broken on the Gann chart. Note also the NDX. I think we will break through all these levels if the DOW puts in a stellar performance today as PVI on the NYSE looks to have broken out. If we do it right away all that much better for the bulls. The upper band on the weekly price channel comes it at 547 on the OEX as does a trend line on the bondspread indicator chart. I think we have a good chance to have a crack at that level next week based on what the indicator I first mentioned above is telling me. I don't recommend any new long positions though. The intraday charts are suggesting we should see a top on the open but whether that translates into any meaningful pull-back is debatable. I suspect we will just see some backing and filling as cumulative volume intraday seem to have broken out and Adlinex is well above the zero line intraday. Here is the OEX-3 volume bar , 25tick bar chart and the 15 minute chart. I suspect the December SPX 1095 level will contain any pullbacks. Thought this was worth noting. Somebody bought 17,000 June 99 SPX, 1500 calls. Thanks GB. Have a great weekend!

Not much to add to the Cycle sections comments this morning other than the OEX is testing the 200 day average from above and MSI is still looking to make a pivot. I suspect we will break out to the upside but so far we have been trapped within the trading range bound by the Gann lines. The only think that changed is, Adlinex made a minor dip. Here is the 15 minute chart, OEX-3 volume bar and another intraday chart.

I have very murky picture to paint. It is basically this, as long as today's support holds within two or three OEX points we should be set to rally from here. The end of day charts aren't presenting a great road map to follow. MSI still hasn't made a pivot, and the volume/breadth indicators never quite reached oversold. We look to be oversold on the one minute though. Adlinex on the daily and intraday charts so far refuses to break down. They may just be waving a red flag in front of the bulls. Maybe Travis will be able to offer some concrete game plan. Right now I am thinking it should be safe to enter a long position this morning but I am not confident about it. VIX did rise to the middle SEB band, so this could have been it for yesterday's panic selling.

Nothing has changed from my last commentary. Still long as the Nasdaq put in a good performance yesterday. MAJ on the 15 minute chart is indicating to me a rally should start sometime this morning. We need to close above 531 Gann resistance to have a shot at the 540 level.  A sharp selloff I think would be a gift to the bulls. MSI still hasn't made a pivot. The OEX is above the blue KC line, the red line should come in at around 520 today and should provide support for a bounce if we do get a sharp selloff. I don't like what the OEX-3 volume bar chart is showing. Maybe a nice rally will take care of that.

Well we did get the selloff at the end of the day and the volume/breadth indicators may have found support at their middle bands. Will they hold today or is a better buying opportunity going to present itself on Tuesday with possible tags of the lowers bands?. I am holding the 525 calls as a position play. The MAJ indicator on the 15 minute charts seems to provide good buy and sell points and is looking good for the open so far. It seems to turn before MACD does. I will be looking at ways to deliver intraday updates in the future, maybe next year. RealPlayer live broadcasts may fit the bill. The OEX is slowly edging up towards the upper Gann line and maybe poised to break above it. MSI is in the buy zone waiting to make a pivot. Notice OBV is above the upper band on INDU chart found in the Cycle section. Looks like a possible break-out to me. The two charts that are bothering me though, Astrocast- I think it got more bearish and the VIX indicator, but that indicator can hang around the lower band if the market starts to develop a trend to the upside. And not to mention Travis' bearish posture. Also my cycles have been surprisingly accurate and a minor one looks to be topping this week. Here is t Was looking great on the Globex and Adlinex is right at the zero line. I want the DOW to at least close positive today with maybe some decent breadth to continue holding my long position. You can see potential targets on the daily Gann chart. Here is this week's sentiment numbers. I have updated the DOW system link and provide a system report.

A real yawner so far. Cautiously long 525 calls. Adlinex has not broken down yet.

It still looks like this market is positioned to break out either way but the volume/breadth indicators are already reaching for their middle bands and could find support there today. One chart, the OEX-3 volume bar is showing we could be developing a trend to the upside and is suggesting all pullbacks should be bought if MAJ is also any indication. This time frame is new to me though and I am not yet familiar with the indicator patterns that are generated in this time frame. MAJ does not yet have enough data to generate support and resistance bands but the indicator is turning up. CMO on the daily chart made a nice punch up. This is usually a sign of market strength but we may and I do mean may, get a sharp pullback before another launch up. The daily Gann lines are still providing resistance on both sides. My guess is the break will be to the upside but they won't make it easy for you. I see two possible scenarios today. The market may make a slow steady climb today and close above Gann line support (534) or we are up sharply all day with a selloff starting in the last few hours bringing the market back to 534, giving the bears some hope for Monday and maybe setting up for a gap up open either way. There are no support/ resistance lines to plan a high confidence trade today. The 50 minute bar average was a good setup yesterady but it was too close to the close for my liking. Here is what MAJ, Adlinex and cumulative volume look like on the fifteen minute chart. MAJ may bounce off the upper band this morning before setting up for a sharp sell off later on the morning and maybe setting up for a nice rally into the close. Look here today around 9: 30 am PT for a posted chart. I am not yet willing to commit to intraday updates though. Hit reload and have a great weekend!

It is pretty hard to find a bullish advisory service on the web. MAJ is at a break out or break down point still. The VIX indicator looks to be trying to pop below the lower band. Intraday seems to be where the action is currently, with the OEX bouncing between the Gann lines. I have two possible targets today for a short trade setup,529 -530 and 534 + or - a point. Look for the 50 minute bar moving average setup going into one of those points to trigger the trade. I would be leery of holding the positions over night unless you can survive a possible ten point gap up open on Friday. 544 is where this rally may ultimately peak.

Tracking the 50 bar average on the Big Chart link? It provided a good short entry setup on the 1 minute chart in the afternoon just like last Thursday minus the interest rate cut. There is a cluster of Gann lines where the OEX peaked intraday. The OEX was finding support intraday at the 50 bar average before breaking down below it. Sure enough it broke back above the average right into the Gann cluster. Using this moving average setup you would have got in the trade within a few points of the top. I don't use it though unless I see some type of resistance markers such as Gann lines. Today the OEX may find resistance at 516-517 before maybe trying to make another push higher. Look at 527 to maybe be the peak for the day. The DOW trading system will give a sell signal if we get a rally today. The MAJ plot on the Nasdaq and the NDX, doesn't give me a high degree of confidence that we will see any serious downside action yet.

Travis you are not alone. MAJ and the VIX indicator have lined up for what could be an ideal short. I don't know though if we will start to crash . The PFE indicator plotted on VIX is also hitting at a top here. The OEX is so far bouncing between support and resistance. Adlinex has also started to break down. Something has to give. If MAJ powers through the upper band, I suspect we will see 527 on the OEX. Travis and the Cycle section have outlined short entry points. If the market is weak tomorrow I suspect MAJ will make a pivot at the upper band. The US dollar could give a boost to the bulls if it pulls out of its free fall. If not, I think it will wrap up Travis' scenario quite quickly.

You would think I was a "perma-bear" after reading the last two months of my commentaries. We have to consider that this market could go a lot higher from here as cumulative volume and breadth have pierced their falling averages. I don't think we will get any excitement to the downside this week as the volume/breadth indicators have made a strong push above their upper bands. The five minute chart doesn't provide any great reference points to trade off. The brown Gann line at 517 may now provide support. The OEX is now sitting at previous support which has now become resistance. The OEX closed at 520.95 within a hair of 520.7. 527 now looks to be a likely target if you are looking to the long side. These sentiment numbers may be indicating an even bigger move up. A market crash is still a possibility but I think the time frame will be November. A lot will depend on what happens this week. Below the lower band on the VIX indicator could be the ideal short entry point. We currently have 70 people on the free two trial. I am sorry I can't answer all your questions. If you are trading funds, I suggest using Adlinex or the DOW system. I present this site as a tool for traders. When I feel that there is a good trade setup, I will mention it in my commentary. If you are looking for constant action I suggest Vegas, where I will be taking a one week Holiday at the end of November. It has been two years since I have taken holiday. I need to step away from a trading screen for a while