May 19 2000 Livechart30- minute
T-Spread Volume
Put Volume
Oh, so close! You got a little incentive to stay short (if you decided to do so) at the close as the futures sold off after the market closed. We have had a good two weeks. If you did stay short, I would close out the position on the open today. The 750 level could play havoc for traders who are trading expiration today. I want to highlight this chart for the astro non-believers. I don't think you could prove the astro price lines are flukes. Have a great weekend! Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
BTW if you are looking for a rather unique email address, I have put his site up just for you.
May 18 2000
I still think we have a shot at the 790 level. I would stay short only if we close below 762. I have no thoughts as to what might happen today from my end-of-day indicators. The DOW system has gone back on a buy.May 17 2000
I thought 787 would be perfect. Today could be tricky for people playing expiration. If we don't get a bounce from the 772 level we could be on our way to 755. There is a chance we could make to the 790 level today. Stay short. Fund traders that went long on my recommendation on the17th should go flat here. The DOW system has gone back on a sell.May 16 2000
That was a little more than a bounce!. We didn't quite get to the 755 level. Today I would look for a short entry above 785. 787 could be a perfect entry but I would settle for 785. Only a few at the money puts. This is not an expiration play. I think the market is going to prove all the "nay sayers" wrong again. I think the only big correction we could get is a massive sideways one. People still don't realize how big the Internet will be. The Internet will be generating new industries and jobs for the next ten years. Now if only Omega would put out that fix that was supposed be out last month. I think the NYA system is a money machine for S&P traders.May 15 2000
The long trade worked out rather nicely. I don't see an ideal target to shoot for today. My only suggestion would be to look to the 754-755 level for a possible bounce. The worst case is we may see the 740 level.May 12 2000
So far the entry point I suggested is proving to be a good one. Master11 and MSI are both still in their buy alert zones. My suggestion would be to close out any longs at 767 today, or if you are greedy, add to your longs on any pullback. If you do this though, stay long only if we close above 769. Use 737 as a stop for today.May 11 2000
Well, the market hit my target, but I have the feeling we won't rally from here. MSI never quite made a buy pivot. One positive here is that Master11 has dropped into the buy alert zone. I think investors are fearful of a clean crack of the 200 day average, which I mentioned we could see probed a few times. I think there is an excellent chance we could make it to the 720 level. You might have to sit through that move if you did go long here. Of course, I could be dead wrong.May 10 2000
Same plan. Only a small long position from the 740-746 level. I wouldn't play the expiration at this point. Two notes: CMO is close to the oversold zone, and MSI is at a possible buy pivot point. It may be prudent to wait for the pivot.May 9 2000
I think this market is baiting us. I don't like the way anything is set up here. I would only consider a small long position from the 740-746 level if the OEX decides to go there today.May 8 2000
I am sorry that I don't see any great trade setup today. If you are a bull, you will want to see the 764-765 level hold today. VIX is still high, so don't be surprised if we test the 740- 746 level if 764 doesn't hold here.May 5 2000
Boring day yesterday, but so far it looks as if we could be hot out of the box on the open. Maybe we will even challenge the OEX 770 level today. No short position is recommended here. I think the worst that may happen now is that we could still see the 740 level. No bet though that we will see the 790 level by expiration.One quick note. We are seeking capital to develop Zubee! If you know people in the venture capital business, please make them aware of this site. We had something lined up last month, but since Internet stocks tanked, the people have shied away. I have deals in place that would put Zubee! on the map. Thank you.
May 4 2000
Have a cigar everyone, I am an uncle! Seven pound Marcus was born at 1:00am last night. I am extremely excited!Sorry, I forgot to take into account the rising price line at 750. Was a bear born yesterday as well? I think we could still see the OEX dip a few times below the 200 day if we haven't already seen the bottom. Strangely, the OEX and the Dow system have both gone back on buys. My first thought was to look for a short entry today at 780, but I don't want to risk Friday. I have the feeling Friday will be up strongly. My apologies again for not having my intraday charts. I hope Omega comes out with its fix this month, as I am dying to implement some new easy language code that I got from Omega. This should fix a few of the bugs we discovered while testing the real time NYA system, which I believe to be an excellent proxy for trading the S&Ps.
May 3 2000
Well, the market hasn't given me the perfect trade setup, but I have really tried to get you short. As for the long side, I wouldn't consider an entry unless it is from the 750 level. That would be for a hit and run trade. I do think we could possibly make it to the 716 -720 level, eventually.May 2 2000
A trade setup? Well, the market is taking its time here. Cumulative breath is hanging just below the 30,50,and the 150 day Moving Averages. Do we break out here and go to record highs? It is possible. The OEX is only forty points from a record high. I suspect the place to enter into puts is above the 816 level on the OEX; that is, if we get there today.May 1 2000
Sorry for the late update. There doesn't seem to be enough time to get everything done these days. I would look for another short entry above 803 if we get there today. Shorts should target the 773 level if subscribers are looking to close out a quick short, otherwise, stay short if we close below 767 today.April 28 2000
Just a reminder to new subscribers. We do occasionally send out email updates. You have to get on this list: : http://www.onelist.com/group/OEXTrader in order to receive them. No news from Omega yet. The DOW system and the OEX system have both gone on sells again. Continue to hold a few puts here. Don't go overboard on them.
April 27 2000
A great entry point never materialized, but we may have a seen a short term high here. If not, we are usually within days of a short term high when this cycle is correct. I would look to enter into a few puts on any possible rally that may materialize today.April 26 2000
We may see a short term high today. I would look to enter into a few puts above 816 for maybe a two day hold.April 25 2000
It now appears as if the 26th may turn out to be a high rather than a low, since we have bounced off of old support. I would prefer to look for a short entry on that date. I am sorry that none of the intraday astro charts are updates. I switched over to another BMI feed on Monday. Everything appears to be working normally now. Now, if Omega could get its act together, and come out with the patch that was supposed to be out last week, we would see all my system updates running smoothly again.April 24 2000
I have added a Volatility Indicator to the index page . It is coded as a system, but you should ignore this. The arrows only indicate that a sharp move may be ahead. Anyone have a spare Cray Computer and a programmer not being used?It is still dangerous to buy the long side here. I see a low coming this week, and the Astro charts may be indicating a "buy" date which I will share with subscribers tomorrow.
April 20 2000
I forgot that it was a holiday on Friday! The DOW system has gone back on a buy. A gap has been filled, and we couldn't break above the 13 day ER average. Where does this leave us for next week? People that may have been able to avoid margin calls by borrowing more from other sources may take this rally as an opportunity to reduce their exposure to risk, thus lightening up on positions still held. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 740 level. No position is currently recommended. Have a great holiday weekend!April 19 2000
I have the feeling a juicy short may be lining up off the 800 level on the OEX. I do think this would entail holding overnight to pay off, if in fact we do hit a high there today. MSI is in the sell zone, but remember it is coming off of a sharp rally, if you want to read anything into Trin here. I would make a recommendation if I had my Trade Station running, but Omega still hasn't put out a patch.Until the patch is available, I will have no idea how the internals that I follow will finish at the close today.April 18 2000
We are not of the woods yet. VIX is still high and may be indicating there is still real risk in this maket. I am sorry I can't make any recommendation here for options traders here.April 17 2000
"The Nut Crash"? In case you haven't heard, the following is the site to visit if you wish to share your mom's apple pie recipe with other people. However, I don't think people were searching for apple pies on Friday! (Please don't email me on how to use it. This is all thanks to rogue programmers at Nullsoft, a subsidiary of AOL, who posted the program for a few hours on their site. Thousands are using it now.) Thus, if you own stock in a MP3 CD internet company my advise is to dump it now while you still can. This will kill Napster as well. I am only mentioning this here because not only can you download CDs , but you can download any other software program or file that is made available, whether or not it is legal or illegal to make a copy. I saw Adobe Photoshop being downloaded. The best part, I guess, depending on whether or not you are a software developer is that no one can trace you or stop you, at this point. It will take some Orwellian 1984 -type legislation to try and stop it. This program will cause one of two things to happen. Software developers will stop putting out new programs until this can be stopped, which I don't think can happen, or people will pirate a copy and try it, and maybe then buy a copy with full support for themselves. Who knows? I have not thought of all the implications yet for software developers. This could also really tank stocks like CNET, possibly.Enough of that. The daily CBOE put volume has given a major buy signal and the weekly cycles may be marking a perfect bottom here. Fund traders should be looking get back in here with a 50 % position. It would have been perfect if the weekly had also given a buy. For the OEX, I see two possible targets to shoot for- 701 and 678, if you have to buy some calls here. This not a recommendation.
Weekend Guests
In case you have not noticed, we have dropped our price down to $12.95 a month to match the prices of a lot of advisory service that are now being offered on the web. In the future, we will be putting banners on all the charts to offset some of the costs of providing this service. It will also possibly enable us to add 3 more excellent traders to this site. Please check back . We currently don't have a time frame set.
April 14 2000
Yes, it is Friday with the Nasdaq perhaps one day away from the lower average. The 200 day is currently at the 734 level, and may be begging for a tag here. I can't make a recommendation. If you go long here, which may not be a bad idea at the close, beware of Monday as we could see a low on that day. I can't advise holding a position overnight.April 13 2000
So much for a short squeeze. I did warn a sharp drop could be just around the corner. I have the feeling we may have only seen half of the decline. I would only consider a hit and run trade from the 774 level today. I have two astro cycles bottoming, one on the 20th and the other on the 26th. I think one corresponds with Jon's ROCTrader date, so I don't expect any rally that may happen right now to be sustainable. One other note; the Nasdaq is close to a level where previous bottoms have occurred; that is, from the lower average.April 12 2000
My apologies to Don. I neglected to mention Don coming on board again with the Range Trader. Welcome back!I am sorry that the old system we were on with the other ISP is still sending reminder notices to members whose subscriptions are expiring. Please ignore these. So far,VIX is still rising,suggesting a sharp drop may be around the corner, but maybe not before one more short squeeze to the upside. I would look to enter a small short position at the 836 level if we get there today. I suspect that today we may see the 826 level,but that level is a projection for Wednesday's action only.
April 11 2000
Continue to hold puts. Stay short only if we close below 809 today.April 10 2000
It looks to me as if the weekly cycles could bottom after expiration. If the market does rally right here into expiration, it will probably get slammed hard if the two cycles are correct. Short term ,I do think traders should be scaling into a few at-the-money puts here. Preferably, on any rally today. The oddlots are at the point where we could see a reversal at any time. I do think we will test the recent lows again.
April 7 2000
I really don't want to commit to a position here. It looks like we got a washout low so far, but I am very leery of two weekly cycles which are bottoming in this time frame {which could be this week coming up}, and my end of day indicators don't give me confidence right now.
April 6 2000
No recommendation today. We are getting close to a bottom with two weekly Cycles looking to bottom in this time frame.April 5 2000
Well, all I can say is that the surprise wasn't really a surprise. I have been trying to keep you in a few puts all week- backed up with a strong suggestion that the 780 level could get hit. I think it is sheer folly to try and trade the next few days {unless you are the nimblest of the nimble}. I may only post charts tomorrow. Commentary will be posted if I see anything worth noting.April 4 2000
Bob may be right. This does have the feel of another leg up, and even the oddlots are at again. However, personally I can't recommend a long trade here. I am just not comfortable doing it. There could still be one more surprise on the downside. This is nota normal market right now.
April 3 2000
Keep some shorts on if you still have them. It was close on Friday with the OEX almost hitting my stop. I have no entry to recommend today. I suspect if we do get a bounce it will be from the 801- 804 level. This not a recombination to go long. If bulls are lucky we may tag the 815 level again. Omega has told me the Trade Station patch should be out this week.March 31 2000
822-824 may make for a good short entry today. I am not sure how much you may get to the downside. 815 may be possible, or the 800 level if you are lucky. Use 830 as a stop and only a few at the money puts. If I had Trade Station running I could have been in a better position to be able to tell you to hold overnight in an email update if the trade materializes today.March 30 2000
Sorry, I am running a bit behind today. So far it is looking like a sharp drop on the open. I still don't have my intraday indicators so I couldn't tell you with any strong conviction whether or not you should buy the open, or a target to buy at. If you are still holding puts, I would sell only a few here. I would only consider a stab at the long side from the 780 level, and I wouldn't hold overnight unless you get 20 oex points to the upside.March 29 2000
The trade was to buy near the close, so far. As soon as other traders like Bob starting noticing these patterns, they change. The OEX Trading system finally gave a sell,thus locking in a nice gain from the recent rally,and that's what our tested models trading is all about! Today would be just a guess for me as to what might happen. Note VIX, we could get quite a surprise to the upside ,but I think there is real risk on the downside at this point,perhaps to the 780 level. We may see the 852-853 level.March 28 2000
Well, we couldn't quite get to the 840 level. So far Bob's setup appears to be materializing on the open. The only bullish indicator I have is MSI. I don't have a trade setup for today. A rally that fails on the open may be the first sign of trouble. We are at a possible Astro turning point as well. I would be very careful on the long side here.March 27 2000
844 was an almost perfect short entry point, but it might not have been the top. The Astro charts may be suggesting the 753 level could still be hit; however, I would hold a few puts even if we do get a rally here. Alternatively, the 840 level could be another nice short entry for today if you want to try the short side again.
I manually added all the passwords. Please ignore the expiration date on the email you should have received - it is not accurate. I am manually keeping track of subs on the old system. You will not receive any email updates unless you sign up here: http://www.onelist.com/group/OEXTrader Please notify me immediately if your password is not working. Thank you.
March 24 2000
All I can say is that 844 may be an ideal short entry point if we get there today. Hopefully, everything will be back to normal next week once I get the patch. On a side note, this is starting to look a lot like 1987 right now to me with this huge two week advance.
