OEX TRADER
For August 13 1999 Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
I was cheering for Travis near the close. I did warn we could get a sharp move in either direction in the e-mail update. If the OEX had busted through the 360 minute average he would have got a nice run. I wish I had gotten up earlier, the short setup was there. I wanted to buy the close, but Nasdaq cum vol. was falling. We could rally right off the open today. If NYSE cum vol. is any indication. The 669-670 level or so, I think that is where a rally could materialize from. I don't really want to give end of day recommendations right now as I don't have a high confidence level, but that is where I would be looking for a long entry with 664 as a stop, if we break down through there, the 650 level is within easy reach. If we bust up, I am looking to the 690 level before entertaining another short entry right now. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
Hourly MAJ and the other 15 minute chart.
For August 12 1999I am feeling talkative tonight. Didn't the CNBC commentators have sunshine coming out of their you know whats today! What did I hear also, AOL price target of 200 dollars? Yes, I would put clients into an overpriced Internet stock just before October. To me it looks like they are bailing early this year. September could be just as bad. The 30 minute cycle bottoms two hours before the close, but right now I am not focusing a lot on my intraday cycles in this time frame. I could basically repeat what Travis said tonight. My reasoning on Tuesday for choosing the OEYHPs even the though I got spooked by the sharp drop in the early morning Globex, was if you buy at the money close to e-week, and you are on the wrong side of the market, you get severally killed. I thought the OEYHPs had a good chance at a double, which they are currently close to doing. Now hourly MAJ is closer to a sell rather than a buy with MSI also near the sell zone. It would have been healthy for the market if they had let the market drop a lot more sharply on the 10th , but they are greedy. It is always the public that they are setting up for a fall. If you look at the 5 minute, hourly Gann, and the 15 minute chart, you will see a Gann line, or a significant trend line coming in around the 678-679 level, and we have the 684 level as a Fib zone. I have added a new intraday indicator to my own personal arsenal, Nasdaq cum vol with an OEX plot. It was weak towards the close as opposed to NYSE cumulative ,which was in party mode all day. I don't think Travis uses it, he amzazes me with his Elliott skills. I like to put on a position, see if it goes comfortably my way, and then go back to sleep. I don't like getting up at 6:30 in the morning. I want to tell you to go short, but I need to watch the market intraday to make this call, as a sharp break up could lead to further rally. I have been golfing all day today. I doubt if I will be able to get up early , as I think the target maybe hit very early, and I want to trade the Augs. Maybe Bob the God will set you guys up. Anyway, you have a good exit target.
For August 11 1999
All we got on the open was a test of the break. Sorry I referred to the wrong chart in the late intraday update with regards to the 654 level. "Look to the 650 level for support today if you are considering any long position today." was part of the very early morning update for interested weekend guests, so they know what page I am on. I knew they would run my stop. That rally near the close really had no power behind it. I know the other guys may be bullish here, but so far volume is indicating to me any rally should be shorted. The 150 was broken today. The Internets really saved the market today from a much sharper decline. I think we may get quick one or two day rallies from here, and the same goes for declines. I don't have a clue for tomorrow, don't know which animal is the kitchen right now. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.For August 10, 1999
It looks like the sharp break will be to the downside. Cumulative volume wasn't giving me any clues at the close. This trade recommendation is only for those who are holding IBM, and MMM Jan puts. If we don't slice sharply on the open through the 668-669 level, buy the OEYHP at market. Take only a 50% position. I think they may run a lot of stops today, as everyone seems to be using the recent lows as a stop. Leg in the rest of the position, or one position at 665-666 if hit. The DOW system has yet to miss a crash, and the 150 day cumulative volume has yet to be broken. Today may be the day for a mini crash, that is why I am only recommending this trade to those that are already hedged on the downside. Use 660 as a stop. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
For August 9, 1999
The NYA system has gone on a buy. Cum vol is right at support with cum breadth still falling. The NDX system has also gone on a buy. The hourly cycle bottoms one hour after the open. It looks like a gap open so far as I am writing this. The US dollar is right at the 150 day also. Buy the dips, especially the hourly cycle low? Maybe, but if today doesn't finish positive we could be setting for a very sharp down day if daily cum vol doesn't hold here. We have a possible pennant being formed on the 15 minute chart, and it looks like it maybe completed at the close today possibly setting up for a sharp break on Tuesday. I will try and provide an e-mail update at the close today. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
For August 6, 1999
I had the feeling that the 665 level, that I mentioned on the Trix daily chart a few days back, would hold. Since we didn't buy it ( I think Travis might of) on this side, I don't see any good long entry point today. The intraday seems to be working as I programmed it so far. Note, the 4 point trailing stop kicked in. Cumulative volume seems to have stopped dropping, but cumulative breadth is still falling. If Travis is correct about a sideways correction, the 685 may halt this rally and we could see a re-test low on Monday when the hourly cycle bottoms. A re-test low may come at lower level on the five minute chart. One minute cumulative breath didn't exactly rocket on Thursday. This is just speculation on my part, not a trade recommendation.
***As weekend guests may have noticed, I am trying to build a network of sites, from traffic that comes to this page. I haven't done much work on them of late as we don't get perfect golfing weather all year round up here. I hope to finally have marketpit.com up sometime this month. I am looking for anyone that may want to write a daily market commentary, opinion, or whatever, on markets, stocks, or commodities, that they trade or follow. If you think you got what it takes, drop me an e-mail. The pay will be zero to start. Raging Bull receives 30,000,000 hits a month, and makes all money from the revenue it receives. I don't plan on taking an active roll with maketpit.com other than to run the site, and use it as means of advertising for OEXTrader.com. Silicon investor is the only other serious competitor out there, and they charge for it. Who knows what could happen? The traders that have contributed to the OEXTrader past, and present, I have met through the Internet, without actually having personally met them. I think Raging Bull is successful due to the quality of writers that they have. The Internet is still young!
For August 5, 1999
WWF is going public, what's next the Jerry Springer show? Come on doom, and gloomers, come out of the woodwork. This is must have been what it was like just before the downfall of the Roman Empire. As I mentioned in the e-mail update, support was taken out and one minute cumulative volume is suggesting a sharp drop on the open. The intraday system has attempted to go short several times recently and has been nicked for very small losses. Right now it is currently short. It uses a four point trailing stop on the index price, and that seems to work good. I recommend the same for traders that are short. Sorry about BDK. for some reason I saw January puts being quoted which of course there our none. The othere sections are much more adventerous that I am on the long side. The Nasdaq maybe making a run at the lower band which is a 500 or so points away. The hourly cycle looks to be bottoming tomorrow morning. One other stock to add to my recent picks which so far have done nothing, EDIG. It is also an Internet music play. GOCA has taken a bit of beating, I would buy some more shares at this price to average your cost down.
For August 4, 1999
The NYA system flipped back to a sell. MSI hasn't reached the ideal buy zone. Hourly MAJ, and the 1440, minute bar chart are suggesting we are oversold, with daily Trix, and the Twin Peaks chart suggesting we are near a bottom. So why am I not bullish? Cumulative daily breadth, and volume are continuing to deteriorate. I think 675-676 level are crucial if we are going to get a retracement rally. There was some guy on CNBC this morning comparing this market to 1987. It is scary how the market does parallel that year. I was playing call options on the big cap stocks instead of the OEX, during the big run up. Now investors are trading the Internets in place of the big caps. Travis certainly had traders in them early this year. I think traders should be buying insurance with out of the money puts on IBM, and MMM this week. I like the Jan 105 puts on IBM. This is a hold until late November trade. IBM has two gaps to fill. I don't think the top one will get filled this year. MMM should rally along with the OEX this week if it in fact does. MMM is forming a rare diagonal triangle on the monthly chart. I like the Jan 80 puts. Traders should average into these on rallies. The ultimate play I think is BDK. Check out the Jan 50 puts. Load up on these cheap suckers. No stops for any of these crash plays. They are all low volatility stocks with cheap option premiums. I think these will be the best plays over the coming Months. The 30 minute cycle bottoms 30 minutes after the open. Bears may want to play a clean break of the 675-776, levels on the hourly Gann, and the hourly cycle charts. That could also be the level from where a strong rally could develop.
For August 3, 1999This might as well be a blank commentary as the market doesn't seem to want to generate an oversold or overbought state. Daily cumulative volume is starting to track down again. That perfect entry point seems elusive. You would have had to buy the close if Globex holds up. I couldn't pull the trigger due to cumulative one minute volume. Twin Peaks may go on a buy here. The NYA system has gone on a buy. The NDX system has gone on a sell, but I wouldn't give it a lot of credence due to MAJ. I am not comfortable recommending any long or short entry points today.
