OEX TRADER
For September 16, 1999 Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
The OEX system has gone back on a buy. The hourly cycle bottoms two hours after the open on Friday. There is old support at 684 if we get there today, which may provide support for a rally. A 698 price line may provide a good opportunity to go short. Use a 3 point stop. I should have mentioned the upper Fib zone yesterday which provided a good entry point to go short. One of the Twin Peaks is right at a reversal level, so anything is possible from here into expiration if you are trading the remaining 2 days. Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.For September 15, 1999
There was no fuel to power the rally as mentioned in the e-mail update. I use the 30,50,and 150 MAs with one minute cumulative volume. Right now we can't even get above 30 MA. Is it the light at the end of the tunnel for the bulls? Well... this trendline is right at 697-698 on the T-Spread chart, and so far has held. We have Fib support at 695 so I would use a stop at 694 if you are going to atempt the long side here. The account won't be taking this possible trade setup. We could have a big down day today as daily cumulative breadth has made another low. Here is the weekly Twin Peaks chart,and here is the daily.They may both be making downward pivots.For September 14, 1999
I am sorry; I just don't have a high confidence level at this juncture with my indicators. The problem I have is that some of the weekly indicators could be rolling over. The 710 level is important, as noted in the e-mail update. It is also a red Fib zone on the Astro2 chart. Watch for any rally that fails at the 710 level, but realize a decline may only entail a move to the 703 level. Likewise, any breakout above 710 may just be a for a few upside points here. I will wait for a better setup.For September 13, 1999
The NYA system has gone back on a buy. Cumulative volume is flat going into the open. It looks like we have a rising wedge on the daily, with 694-695 being the lower end and the 720-721 being the upper end. Note the Fib zones are starting to narrow. Naz cumulative volume held up quite well and is still rising-thus not confirming the OEX drop. I have no trade recommendation tonight.For September 10, 1999
Here is what I was looking at for that first e-mail update- Naz cum, and NYA cum. I could have saved a point on the contract when I warned that I was considering closing out the trade. When VIX did confirm the breakout, we shot up rapidly. I have posted that chart once here before,but I won't post it again. The small trading account can't afford a whipsaw in the morning.However, LDQIP may still pay off. I am trying to manage the account as well as trade.The account can't afford two losers here.I have never seen this happen before... the DOW system has gone back on a buy and OEX system has gone on a sell on the same day. The 30 minute bottoms four hours after the open. OEX Trader futures are up on the index page.For September 9, 1999
Welcome GB! Another trader who has made previous contributions to the OEX Trader has agreed to share some of his expertise, and offer some more diversity to this site. I hope he enjoys his stay and ends up becoming a regular contributor.I think we are going to live and die by the dollar the next few days. Anyone care to give an Elliott count on this chart. Ignore the gaps, I shut down the server at night. If we are setting up to take out the recent lows, bears are going to be rather happy next week. Use 718 as a stop for yesterday's entry at the close. I am hoping for a gap down on the open as Nasdaq cum vol. was falling and NYSE cum vol. couldn't quite bust out. I also knew that Twin Peaks was at a crucial juncture. I also alluded to the poor breadth. Well we just broke below the 1997 lows again This market is due for a severe bruising soon and we are just above the 30 and 50 day as well. Only one problem there are still too many bears according to this survey I just got tonight.. I hope any morning rally fails at the 1350- 1356 futures level. If breadth continues to deteriorate we may get a shot at the 686 level or lower early next week. The NYA and the NDX system have gone on sells.
For September 8, 1999
I was out cold for the rest of my morning. When you have MS it really hits you when you get sick. Well we are flat now after closing out the position. I was hoping we would see a sharper rally after the bond market closed as Nasdaq cum vol. was no where near as bad as the NYSE. A Fib zone has now appeared just around the 719-724 level and one at 704. 720 or 730 ? You may want to try the 720 level, but I am not making an end of day recommendation here. We have our first post at marketpit.com. I have long forgotten the answer to the gentlemen's question.From Bob's e-mail update. The great Yardenni? I don't know who he is, but I remember reading about a market analyst, who I think is in Israel. His calls have been right on the money, but I can't remember his name. Barron's interviewed him maybe 10 years ago . I don't think his name was Yardenni though.
For September 7, 1999
e-Mail update:
I have been a bit under the weather the last two days. My tonsils are painfully swollen. I had a commentary thought out until I passed out on the couch. Anyway, look to the astro2 chart, 724 maybe a good spot to close out our long if we get their today. I will be surprised if we fall below 710 today. I would hold all longs here.For September 3, 1999
I have put a tentative arrow on the bondspread chart that I referred to in the early morning e-mail update. I wanted to add another position, but since I am only starting the account with $3000, I thought it prudent not to. I am far from being in the very bullish camp, we are getting a perfect crash setup here. There may be on more peak on the daily chart near the upper trendline on the bondspread chart. This is for the benefit of guests, the hourly bottoms an hour after the open, and cum vols are not giving any indication for the open.. Look for an e-mail update if I decide to close out the long. Premium is now becoming a factor as we didn't get a great entry.For September 2, 1999
The dollar drop is taking over here, I warned yesterday it could be in a crash wave here. The OEX pretty well followed the dollar tick for tick yesterday until trading stopped an hour before the market closed. The only positive at the close, was NYSE cum vol. was blasting off, but the Nasdaq didn't confirm it. The NYA and the NDX system are giving buys into a probable plunge on the open. I will send an e-mail update if I decide to close out our one contract and go short. Marketpit.com has been setup, you can even post charts there if you want to promote your web site or point of view.For September 1, 1999
Thought I would start September off on a different note. I am starting a trading account geared to smaller investors. $3000 US to start, and we will only be trading one OEX contract at the money, or around $1000, total trade value, if I am trading more contracts. You probably got a lousy fill as the OEX took off shortly after I sent the e-mail update. The first trade will go in the books as a looser so far, and I will mark at as being filled at $12.00. Let's see how long this first $3000 lasts. I will be using a liberal $50 dollars for commissions. Didn't Precther turn $10,000 into $100,000 trading OEX options? Let's see what happens. I will probably hold this position all day today. I was so focused on Nasdaq cum vol., I forgot about the 30-minute, it bottomed right at the close. I don't expect a zoom up here, as there are a lot averages to break through here, MSI is trying to make a pivot here. The NYA system is still on a sell. It gave a buy, and a sell intraday, but we are trading it on an end af day basis. The OEX system went on a buy. I am not super bullish though as the dollar could be in a crash wave here.For August 31, 1999
You have to look for the setups from your indicators, but I wasn't really enthusiastic about MSI, we didn't get the buy pivot. Intraday breadth indicators are still pointing down. Usually when Trin based indicators don't work, are right when you are in a crash. I think I will wait for the actual pivot. It could come today. There are two interesting setups here, one from the 690-691 level on the hourly Gann chart, and the other from the 683 level on a daily. Both have provide support for a sizable bounce. If we don't get one immediately from Fib support. Daily cum vol. is right at support so we could be right in the time frame barring a mini crash here. Yesterday may also have marked an astro low. Raw VIX is also at the upper band as well as the oddlots. I can't give an end of day recommendation here with intraday cum vol still dropping.
For August 20, 1999
The boys did a good job on Friday! Hourly MAJ is no longer favoring the bears here. MSI could also give a buy pivot here. All we need is both intraday cum volumes to start turning up, usually they will flat line before a breakout (I learned that from Bob), the key is not to jump into soon, but I won't be up in the morning. Bulls may want to try a long entry at the 704-706 level, at the money calls here. Use a stop at 699. This not a super bullish recommendation though as all my trading systems are now on sells, I would only put on a small position. I have added some new blue trendlines to the five minute chart. The 714 level also corresponds to the average on the 30 minute chart as well. I wonder what the internet would have been like during the 87 crash? If something like that happens this year, I bet brokerages and dicounters will be caught of guard. If you trade on line, you might not be able to place an order. Be prepared if you are going to hold long positions over this time frame, unless you want to ride it out. I don't think we are going to get a crash as severe as 87, but who knows? I only see 100 OEX points to the downside of possible pain here. I don't know how they managed a trendline from the 87 crash on this chart link, posted by the Cycle section . I think that firm might have made an error, or Supercharts is wrong. as the weekly Gann chart's lower blue Gann line, is right off the 87 top. I don't think my chart is in error as the scaling is set to the entire price series, not to screen, but it doesn't really matter.For August 27, 1999
A rally is possible right of the open as we are sitting right at support on the 3vol bar chart and the 30 minute chart. Nasdaq and NYSE cum vol. are both suggesting a gap open to the downside. NASDAQ cum vol. looks less bearish as it flattened towards the close. Translation no trade recommendation tonight. I will stick with yesterday's short entry target for the moment. What a busy week for me. We have the marketpit.com site up. There is no URL to the board yet, as I am testing it. I hope to have it up on the weekend, but I have wedding to go to. We will be getting futures, quotes, and news here at OEX Trader from a futures firm as well. I hope to have this setup this week also. I hope to have the script errors messages on the closing bell, and charts of interest link fixed for Explorer users also. It would be great if everyone just switched to Netscape Communicator, but it isn't going to happen even though it is a better browser. One other note for .traders that inquire about the trading systems. Please read the two commentaries on the 25th and 24th. That is another project this site needs also, an FAQ section. One more note, I may be offering a promotion to the first 100 members of marketpit.com. I have to talk it over with the other traders at this site first. So check back at marketpit.com next week.For August 26, 1999
Not much to say tonight. It was just a guess. I didn't get up early enough to catch the cum vol. breakout. It looks like we may get a short setup here. I would look for an entry at the 730 level with 735 as a stop. At the money puts. A lot of my charts show trendline, Gann, and Astro hits at that level.For August 25, 1999
It was a good trade setup. I chose the 722 level as a stop in case the OEX overshot the trendline. I couldn't keep you short overnight as Nasdaq cum vol. was rising into the close. Nyse cum vol. was testing the averages from below, not enough strength to go long. I have no trade setup today. My guess is the OEX will lack any direction. Just to finish my commentary from yesterday. I like the NYA system better than the OEX trading system for one reason only, more trades. When we were developing these system for options trading, my main criteria was to get as many signals as possible to negate premium erosion. The NYA system has so far come the closest to reaching that goal. The DOW system I don't really recommend for trading options as the signals can be far apart. Note, what I do recommend for trading the DOW System. There are so many ways that you can trade these systems. If you do use options to trade the DOW system or the OEX system I would use expirations three month out and at the money or even in the money depending on your bank roll. The other trading vehicle that we don't touch much upon at this site are Leaps. They may actually be the perfect way to trade these systems. They would probably be the perfect vehicle to trade Travis' NDX qqq account as well. I think his return would have been a lot higher unless he is using margin. As you can see there are so many ways to trade these systems, that is why I don't make recommendations based on them. Your own money management is the most important factor. I hope this helps you out. We almost always trade the nearest month here for our own trades. You only need only one good trade a month to pull 10,000 out of the OEX every month. I know Bob and Travis usually trade ten contracts as do I. Yesterday could have come close, but we didn't get a comfortable drop to hold overnight plus the Nasdaq.
For August 24, 1999
Close your eyes and buy every dip? Sorry I had to leave before the close, Marketpit.com is taking me longer than I thought it would to set up, anyway I knew we were going to rally into the close, and possibly gap up as per the e-mail update. I forgot to mention yesterday, we could be breaking out above the 30 and 50 day also. Didn't get much of a pullback to buy after the open. I think the five minute chart provides a good road map today. For day traders, I think the 706-707 level should be bought with a stop at 704 and the 712 level should be sold with a tight stop at 713. I wouldn't holding overnight unless I send an update. I am not considering a short here yet, unless we hit the 717 level on the weekly Gann chart. Use 722 as a stop, as always at the money strikes. The OEX, and the NDX systems went back on buys. I don't talk much about my systems. Sometimes the OEX system goes through a bad period like the one that you have just seen. You can have the best systems in the world and still lose money. With any system you trade, the success of the system will be based upon your own money management. Put all your capital into one loosing trade to start ,and you can end up being toast especially if the next one goes against you. One way you can trade my systems is two split your risk capital amongst all them, if you are using options to trade them. I am seriously considering taking the OEX system off this page as I think the NYA system is much better, and you can use the OEX to trade it. There are options on the NYA, I prefer NYA options to trade crash setups. Incidentally we tested the OEX systems on the SP500 seven years ago, using futures data.You would be millionaire now with that system, as the system has got even better. I notice Travis sometimes mentions that this is an option based advisory service. I think anything goes here. I am seriously considering opening a futures account. I like the idea of not having to take premium erosion into consideration plus being able to get more sleep as you can use stops.For August 23, 1999
I hope you like the new look. Just need to make a few more changes, but I will be sticking with the background you see. If you went long on the break of the 692 level, I would consider selling any longs on a possible gap open today. I have resistance at the 707 level, and the 711 level if we break above resistance on the 5 minute chart on the open. The 30 minute cycle bottom 3 hours after the open, so we could get a nice rally into the close from a possible dip to the 700 level. The DOW system went on a sell. A solid four hundred points+ with a bad entry. They NYA system went on a buy again.For August 20, 1999
The NYA system has gone on a sell. Cum vol. suggests we gap down on the open, but intraday cumulative breadth has been improving. 692, I believe is key resistance today. The fireworks could come if we bust through there. Currently we are sitting right near support. Look at the congestion on the astro2 chart. I think this is one e-day I will pass on. One of the long term hourly cycles is putting downward pressure here. The short term hourly bottoms 90 minutes before the close.For August 19, 1999
The OEX system is now on a sell. It has been tough this week to get an great entry point. My Trade Station password expired yesterday, and the new password doesn't work, so there may be few charts that aren't updated or are different. Daily Trix maybe making a pivot here. SC4 intraday cumulative volume is telling me nothing here. If intraday cumulative volume plotted correctly with SC4, I wouldn't have upgraded to Trade Station. I have no recommendation today. I think we may find support at 688-689 today. The bull may still have some more kick here. If we don't find support today, a trip to the 685-687 level maybe in the cards. I have added some more content to the index page. I know it looks messy , but it does the job. One day I will spend the bucks to get a professional to do it.For August 18 1999
The NDX system went on a sell. The only trade setup I see for shorts for e-week is a tag of the 703-704 level with a tight stop. At the money puts. I would use 1.50 point stop on the option as usaully recommended by the Cycle section . Of course if we blast through that level on the open, I wouldn't try it. Cumulative volume is testing the falling averages here, so there is a good probability we could see a turn. This was the case in 97. Cumulative volume pulled back to the 150 again before the real rally started. The only problem that I have with that trade is, MAJ is not in the ideal location for the short side, and one minute cumulative volume is still looking healthy. If you trigger the trade I wouldn't look for no more then a five point pullback. The astro chart has a better setup with the 707 level. Use 712 level as a stop, and I would trade at the money Seps. Fund traders should seriously consider liquidating all holdings here before the 24th. Jupiter is going retrograde. This bull could be dead, I only see the possibility of a tag of the upper channel on the bondspread chart. Use saw how powerful the rally was when Mercury went direct.For August 17 1999
Good timing Travis. I did say it was a rising trendline, it just took until late in the day. The Nasdaq is clearly powering this rally. The intraday system is on a buy from two days ago, and will exit if the OEX falls 4 points. To short or not to short. There is a lot of bears out there. I have the 694-695 level as resistance, and just above the 700 level on a quite a few of my charts. The 694-695 level is a Fib zone also. I am not going to make a call here. UBRT could be in play here. This could be an easy triple. I think they have about 400 sites now, for the first phase, mine included, ZMUSIC.net, which I am still waiting for from my ISP. Anyone can put one of these sites up. I am still very bullish on GOTO as well.For August 16 1999
What a great golf tournament! At this rate, maybe we will see a PGA winner who hasn't yet graduated . What is our excuse? I am aiming for the Seniors Tour. The OEX. Well today may be a day traders delight. Look for support at this rising trendline at 685, and the 692-694 level may be a good short entry today. I think the ideal short entry point may be just above the 700 level tomorrow, that would correspond with an MACD crossover (sell when they buy), that may also correspond with a zero line Twin peak tag,or wait until the NYA system goes on a sell.
