OEX TRADER
Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
For October 18, 1999
" I live for Ameritrade!" Those commercials are dangerous. I bet floor traders haven't ever made money this easily. "Come on Granny... invest your life savings in a low PE stock because the research is free !" Someone should explain to the public that low PE usually means zero growth. I feel sorry for the public.Well, is the bull dead or just taking a nap? Put volume has soared above the 1996 high.The 1996 put volume high coincided with the exact price bottom in that year. Of course, the market didn't take off vertically from the low. The weekly put/call indicators have given a buy signal. Fund traders that aren't too sticky about an entry point should be looking to jump back in here. I would only commit 1/3 of your funds though. We came close to the 650 level and we may still see it today. The NYA system went back on a buy, probably locking in a huge gain if Globex doesn't gap up too sharply. As you can see, a lot of these gains don't show up on the system reports as Dial Data doesn't show a true open. It was obvious right from the open a call trade wouldn't work out. Looking for a solid support line for today if you want to bottom fish? Well, I have the 645 level as being support on a weekly chart. I would use a tight stop at 640;the vehicle being at the money calls. We could get a 200 point up day today as a lot of traders are expecting a crash Monday from what I have been hearing. I have a solid secondary target that I favor if the stop gets run today ( sorry no open house today). Most likely it will get hit tomorrow if support fails today. The DOW system has never missed a major crash yet and the oddlots are at their upper band on the same chart, which also favors a rally. I would close out the long position at the end of the day if our trade is successfully triggered. You may have noticed a change in my grammar. It usually gets edited before the open, thanks to Jon. I am in Vancouver and he is NY; that is why the commentary changes as he edits it over the web.
For October 15, 1999
675 was all traders could get today, as I suggested on yesterday's commentary. I only have one trade recommendation today. Buy the OEJOs on the open at market. You can probably get them for around a buck. They will either finish 7 points in the money or expire worthless. The next Fib support level is at 661. Today we got a perfect tag from the Gann support that I mention in Wednesday's e-mail chart update. The NDX system has gone back on a buy, locking in its second 100 point gain {if Globex is any indication}. The intraday system closed out its short position when the OEX rallied four points intraday. I hope to get Win Beep next week and see if I get some of these signals sent out intraday via e-mail if I can get someone to help me set it up. Raw put/call data at the bottom finally made a spike down, and we have put volume spiking so we may be close to a bottom, but I think we may still see these lows again next week even if we do get a sharp rally today. There is an outside chance we could see 650 on Monday or today if the market does fall apart here. The NYA system is still on a sell.For October 14, 1999
OEX system has gone back on a buy. So far it is looking like a perfect tag of the 669 Fib zone with CMO in the oversold zone, as I noted in the e-mail update. The Mars price line has also held so far. Traders shouldn't be surprised by a possible sharp gap opening on the Globex today. If you were playing expiration, and went long at the 669 Fib zone I would sell any calls on the open . 675 may be all you get today if you are lucky. We may get as high as 682 for Friday's expiration, but the market is moving too fast to make any predication for Friday meaningful. As Bob noted hourly cum vol. is in a free fall. Sharp rallies can be expected when cum vol. deviates too far from the falling averages. I expect a choppy market for the next two weeks, but the trend is still up as noted by cum NAZ hourly. A few more up and down sequences are expected as the OEX probes support here. I was debating on closing out our IBM puts today, but they may still go deep in the money. We are still waiting on MMM. Stick to the game plan I set out in the Aug. 10th commentary. Fund traders should also be looking to get back in then as well. Aug. 18th commentary. Exact date to be published later.For October 13, 1999
Timely NDX sell signal? Well... that remains to be seen. The NYA system has gone back on a sell. You did catch most of the rally, plus some of the sell-off if you had been trading that system. It looks like we will get our stop run this morning. I was debating whether or not to close out the position at the close, but I felt we would see a bounce back this morning. Cum daily Vol. is not confirming this downside action. I don't want to paint an overly bullish picture and thus ride these calls down to a bigger loss, but there isn't much point in targeting the stop this morning. The five minute chart shows two support levels, one right at 684, and the other right at 680. New daily Gann lines have support right at 680 also. We may get a sharp rally from either level as CMO , and MAJ are no longer in overbought territory. We may get a retracement back to the 692 Mars price line, which in all likelihood will probably be a good short entry point. If you can easily deal with a possible fall to the 669 Fib support level if 676 doesn't hold, I would hold your calls. I would consider selling half to manage your risk, as I would hate turning a losing trade into an even bigger loss. Bonds are right at resistance, so there is a possibility of T-bonds rallying. Bears should be hoping for yields to move up from here to the 6.4 level. I should start trading this system, once again it has caught a drop. It will exit the position if the OEX rallies 4 points.For October 12, 1999
The NYA system has gone back on a buy, and the NDX system has gone on a sell. We closed right on the lower trendline at the 797 level that I mentioned in the e-mail update. If we are not up from the open I would look for a call entry at the 692-693 level... at the money calls. Use 684 as a stop. I can only advise trading the Novembers here, as I have no idea what time I can get up. Cum vol. was bullish going into the close.For October 11, 1999
Cum vol. is suggesting a gap up on the open, but Globex isn't getting the message so far. Trade Station is fixed with the new upgrade. The 30 minute cycle almost bottomed perfectly as predicted (it actually bottomed two hours after the open) which coincided with an almost perfect tag of the 13 day ER. Wow, that was a nice call Bob, you missed the close prediction on the open by one point! Your new workstation is already paying off! I don''t have any strong sells other than TRIX may be rolling over here. I would like to see MAJ tag the upper band on the daily. If Globex doesn't cooperate on the open, a 3 point gap down may be the low for the day. Otherwise we may see a pullback to the lower line at 693. The NYA system has gone on a sell. Looks like our Indian summer is over. I managed to pick up a new book: Trading Systems and Methods , third edition, by Perry J. Kaufman. Don't let the title fool you. Systems are only a small part of the treasure chest that is in this book. This should keep me busy over the winter. It covers a lot of new indicators that you probably haven't heard about.For October 8, 1999
I am getting application error messages with Trade Station. When I try and bring up a trendline or a date,something isn't working correctly. I am working with Tech Support on it. It will be fixed as soon as possible. The 30 minute looks to be bottoming approximately 2-3 hours after the open. Today may be full of whipsaws if the OEX crosses below the 13 day ER. If the report is bullish there may be a perfect shorting opportunity. 678 may provide support for daring bulls {per my e-mail update}. It would be great if we did gap on the open and just kept going. Twin Peaks is at a possible reversal level and the OEX system went on a sell. Here is what the intraday system has been doing lately. I have been testing it for results. It will only close out the short if the OEX rallies 4 points intraday. 795 looks to be major resistance on these new resistance lines that I have been testing. A close or strong breakout through that level may indicate the next sharp move could be up.
For October 7, 1999
EBAY above 300 by January? You have to be kidding Travis; maybe by early November : ). When shorts panic they really panic. Anyway... good calls by all the other sections. I can't say I was surprised by today's move. It is getting to be an expectation that when all my systems go on buys or sells together then a 200 point move up or down will result. I should have been shouting about MAJ, Master11, and Twin peaks, not to mention the hourly and weekly cycles that bottomed perfectly. Instead I was concerned with the 200 day. (I don't promote this site's tools often enough)! I will venture to say we could see the 720 level on the OEX if we can get above 705. The 695 level should become support if we burst through it on the open today, and then a rally fails at 705.For October 6, 1999
Cum vol. was suggesting a big breakout to the upside if the news had been bullish. Instead,all I is see today is a bounce that perhaps may materialize from the 770 level Fib support. This level may also be Gann support. Whether that may translate into a ten point bounce I couldn't tell you, but I think Travis's prognosis may be on the ball. You will want to examine the Five minute chart. The NDX sytem went back on a buy.For October 5, 1999
Finally we have some trendlines that will help us trade. I see a possible short set up on the five minute chart and the 3 vol. bar chart. Look for a short entry at 687. Use a five point index stop. At the money puts. I would look to exit at 679 unless we slice sharply through that level.I will send an e-mail update if the stop or exit target is not hit. Perhaps 672 will be in the cards. I think the 677-679 level may alternately be a good entry if you are inclined to play the long side here. Today volume took over while they shot just about everything else.
For October 4, 1999
The Astro charts were the first victims of Y2K. They are all back to normal now. Friday was an interesting day. We had cum breath advancing while cum vol. was showing there was no real buying going on. VIX did give a buy intraday. MSI made a strong pivot on a down day, which makes me think any rally here will be suspect. It is a question of when we are going to break out of this tight range. I think the 682 level is very key and a close above it may indicate a breakout may be to the upside. I am still fearful of a break of the 660 level. I still don't have any ideal trade setup this week. I suspect Globex will lead the way on the open tomorrow or Tuesday which will probably entail holding overnight, regardless which way the break will be. Right now it has been a day trader's delight-which I am not inclined to do. I don't think I will be able to give any updates intraday tomorrow.For October 1, 1999
Sorry-there are no updated Astro charts tonight. I thought had the problem fixed with tech support. If I can get in touch with someone today, I should have it fixed by Monday. We finally managed to close above the 50 MA. We also closed right on an hourly Gann line. Cum vol. is above the 150, and the hourly cycles may have bottomed. A weekly cycle also bottoms today. I would be one cautious bull here as the dollar is plunging ( a new wall of worry to climb?). We could see very fast market conditions today. The 682 level looks like a break out point to me. Twin Peaks may also be giving a buy signal here. I have plenty of downside targets in reserve if we don't get a sharp rally today, and if as a result the recent lows get taken out. I will be looking for a low on Monday if that is the case. I have no ideal stop to use because the price swings have been so wide. The NDX system went on a sell.For September 30, 1999
Cum vol. doesn't bode well for the open. I think the safest bet for bulls is to wait for the hourly cycles to bottom at the close today or the open on Friday. This market is turning on a dime right now. MSI still looks like it wants to go for the upper band. Sorry none of the Astro charts are updated. I am getting an illegal function call.For September 29, 1999
The setup was there for a long entry from my Gann charts, and also in reference to Fib support on the Astro2 chart {for daring bulls}. I couldn't recommend a long trade because a break of the 200 day usually means a waterfall to the downside. This could be exactly what the current setup implies. MSI never made a strong buy pivot. The 30 minute cycle bottoms 90 minutes before the close, while we have two hourly cycles bottoming at the same time 2 1/2 hours after the open on Thursday. We may either see a massive rally Thursday morning or a panic low if these cycles are any indication. The 682 level, I think, is critical for the bulls. I noticed Bob has put up some new charts. I see the pitchforks, but I don't really understand the bars on the side of the chart. Sometimes it takes a while to catch all the implications inherent on his charts-but his analysis is very often excellent. It is becoming obvious that I can't get up sometimes so I won't be going through with the account for small traders.For September 28, 1999
Travis is bearish and the Cycle section is bullish and Rick is sitting on the fence. So, you want to quite your day job trading the DOW system? Well-I would advise you to do this only if you have the capital to make it through the occasional loser. I think the system alone is worth the price of a subscription. It has gone back on a buy as has the NYA system and the NDX system. MSI still hasn't made it back to the upper band. I am sorry I couldn't get up yesterday. I wouldn't have held a short position overnight as NDX cum vol. was holding up. I have no trade recommendation. What I would like to see is one more move down to the 645 level, but at this point I am not sure we will get one unless the DOW system is a few days early here.For September 27, 1999
My apologies if you where not able to log in. For some reason, smartt.com has been down most of the night and the e-mailer is not working as well. I have no idea when the problem will be fixed. The FTP works. I think this the first time this has happened this year.The NYA system has gone back on a sell. MSI hasn't quite reached the upper band. We didn't quiet make it to the 200 day and the Fib zones have shifted dramatically. Looks like a sharp gap up if Globex is any indication. I have resistance on various charts between the 678 and the 685 level. 685 maybe the ideal level, but you might want to wait until Tuesday to enter a short. Look for an e-mail update late in the afternoon if I decide to trigger a short today.
For September 24, 1999
Wild ride on the Globex tonight. Do you think it has worked off an oversold condition and stabilized for the open? Is everyone going to be looking to buy the 200 day at 660 if support here doesn't hold? Well, we also have Gann support here on the weekly with a Cycle bottoming in two weeks. My feeling is that we have to have a 200 point up day today to knock out any chance of a crash next week. I don't think we will get it; if any rally develops it will probably bring up cum vol. to the falling averages,thus setting up for a more severe plunge next week. The displaced average on the MAJ chart is at 645. Last September that was taken out with the addition of another ten points.The additional ten points coincided with MAJ tagging the lower band. You can now see with yesterday's action why I wouldn't contemplate the long side. You can't get out fast enough when a plunge starts. Look for VIX at 27 to contain any possible rally. This the chart I said I wouldn't post again. NYA system has gone on a buy and the NDX sysem has gone on a sell.For September 23, 1999
My best wishes to Travis and his family, and I will pray for his sister. I have the feeling he will be back.I think the risk for shorts here is a clean break above the 696 level, but I think the risk for longs is a trip to the next support level on the T-Spread chart at the 677 level. Personally , I am not trading the long side at this point yet. I don't like to bet against the DOW system unless other indicators are lined up perfectly. If this channel is correct we could see a move to the 700+ level as suggested by the cycle section;that is, if we break above 696. The chart also shows that we are in a downtrend on the 15 minute.
For September 22, 1999
Here is the chart that I was referring to when I sent out the e-mail update. Cum vol. still has a big task ahead of it if it is going to crawl out of the hole it is in. I don't expect any drastic moves today. The market may touch the 694 or 696 level, and then possibly test the low that was also made on the regression chart.For September 21, 1999
Cum vol. was set up up for a sharp break in either direction on the open as noted in the e-mail update. Note how the averages are all lined up. In regards to new subscribers who didn't get the e-mail update-please be aware that the 30 minute is set to bottom an hour after the open. I was hoping we would get a better rally on Tuesday to enter a short position, but it looks like MSI isn't going to give us one if Globex is any indication. We may only get a small bounce when the 30 minute bottoms. The boys with the big pockets love to "play burn the option trader". Note how IBM was down sharply on expiration when the OEX was up, and yet today IBM rallied,thus lending some support to the market. Maybe we will still get a rally to get short into, but I won't be surprised if we don't get one.For September 20, 1999
The DOW system has gone on a sell, probably a few days early. The NYA system and the NDX system have gone on buys. I have added a 1x1 Gann line to the 5 minute chart. It appears the OEX is following this line up. This may be targeting the 709-710 level. I have added new Gann lines to the hourly chart. Maybe we will get a good short entry at the 714-715 level if we get small pullback from the 709 level. I think is important for the bulls for the OEX to hold above the 700 level today.For September 17, 1999
What we saw was a perfect tag of the lower Gann line. Here is what I was looking at when I suggested closing out longs. You should have had a nice rally to sell into. NAZ cumulative volume did manage a spurt into the close. I think we may have just seen expiration happen on Thursday. The VB indicators are now at their lower bands. Daily cumulative breadth may have just found old support dating back to 1997. These indicators may now support Travis's bullish posture.Note that Globex has been tracking the dollar all night. The reason the account hasn't taken another position is that I am waiting to see if LDQIP will expire worthless. If you can get a dollar today take it. The account will hold into the close. The worst thing that market could do here is to drop right at the open. The hourly bottoms two hours after the open and the NDX system went on a sell. I would look for a short entry at 704.
