Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
Put Volume
March 24 2000
All I can say is that 844 may be an ideal short entry point if we get there today. Hopefully, everything will be back to normal next week once I get the patch. On a side note, this is starting to look a lot like 1987 right now to me with this huge two week advance. Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
March 23 2000
Other than some email glitches the new credit card system seems to be working fine. There will also be a page where you will be able to cancel your automatic renewal. Well, we saw the 812 level today as I thought we might. That has been about the only good call I have made this week. I am not really comfortable giving recommendations without my Trade Station charts. I talked to Omega research today to two people there. One said if you reload Trade Station it might run in Win 2000. The other said it won't and you would be better of to wait for the patch. I am going to wait. My best guess for today is the OEX may find support at the 805 level and we bounce up against Fib Zone near the 812 level again. If bears are lucky we will close at the 796 level.March 22 2000
It is like driving in the dark with no lights on when I don't have Trade Station. We may get a shot at the 812 level today. If we do, I expect at least a pullback from that level. If you took a small short position, I would hold onto it as we approach a possible Astro turning point. Current subscribers will be credited with this extra promo week. Sorry, if you send me email right now I will not be able to reply until my ISP changes some settings.
March 21 2000
The sentiment has turned rather dramatically with the oddlots taking a severe beating. They have stopped shorting and maybe hinting a market turn may be a around the corner Put volume is also close to out right sell. I would consider getting a few puts here. Dare I say a 400 point down day is near. Maybe. The DOW system went on a sell as well.
March 20 2000
No trade for today. I don't expect a very wide range today. We are waiting on Network Solutions to complete the domain transfer. We will not be accepting any new subscriptions until probably Wednesday. We will have $9.95 two week trial rate. I have decided to post charts in a 600x800 resolution from here on. A 56 k modem is very quick with a browser accelerator, if you still have to use a modem. The new faster computers that have just come out, pages load almost instantly. My friend who has ADSL at work says there is almost no difference between my browser speed, and his browser speed at work. It might be though because WIN 2000 uses a new files system and your internet connection is very stable.March 17 2000
Wow, what a rocket blast! I didn't think it would be that big. The oddlots are still add it, too. OEX put volume has increased. Sometimes, this can be attributed to the professionals who usually load up before the market actually turns.The DOW still has not broken above the 50 day. If you are going to consider a short here I would look to the 800 level or higher at this point.First off, I would like to thank everyone that has supported the
OEXTrader up to this point. A lot of you have been faithful subscribers from
day one! There are not enough OEXTraders to support this site at this price.
As you know, I have experimented with different price structures to see
where the demand is for this service. There are presently at least 20 more OEX trading advisories on the web, and some of them have priced themselves
lower than $50 a year. We have decided to price this service at 12. 95
a month using automatic credit card renewal. You will also be able to pay
by check or phone. If you are currently on; a 3 month or 6 month plan
you will be credited extra months accordingly. There will be no one time
payment option available. A site transfer usually does go perfectly, but with the implementation of a new payment system I expect some bugs. The site transfer will initiate after the market closes. We expect to resume normal operations by Wednesday. The site will be open to the public until then. Please register here: http://www.onelist.com/group/OEXTrader in case we need to send updates or some charts via email. I may not post any commentary until Wednesday. Sorry, no Trade Station charts are updated in the OEXTrader section do to my upgrade to Win2000. They won't be updated until Trade Station comes out with a patch this month. The NYA system will also be updated in real-time via email. Thank you!
Rick Pereira
March 16 2000
So far weekly support has held. Put buying actually increased with the rally and oddlots continue to short like crazy. I wouldn't consider a short
here.March 15 2000
I repeat ...from the email updates... please sign up here http://www.onelist.com/group/OEXTrader for email notices in case the site transfer does not go as planned. Thank you.The day played out pretty much as I suggested . I left it up to you to decide on a short entry point as I currently do not have Trade Station with which to base a solid recommendation. CBOE put/call indicators may be suggesting a bearish couple of weeks ahead. Weekly twin peaks may have room for more downside if the market decides to go into a free fall. We are currently right at weekly support on that chart. I won't even suggest what might happen today. The best thing the market could do for the next two weeks is go sideways in order to confound the bearish oddlot shorts. Moon price lines, cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
March 14 2000
We are going to be moving OEXTrader.com to a new server next week after options expiration and setting up a new credit card system. We won't be using the emailer after
the site move completes. In order to receive announcements
you should get on this mailing list as soon as you can.
http://www.onelist.com/group/OEXTrader
I am trying to make the move as painless as possible.
I will add your current passwords to the new system.
Thank you.We could have more of the same today. My guess is we close near the lows though and the 200 day could be tested again this week. CBOE put/call is very bearish but we have the oddlots shorting like crazy. Two contrary indicators at
odds.March 13 2000
All the chart are updated. I don't feel that I have
anything useful to post today to add to the Momentum
Cycles commentary. I am just guessing without Trade
Station as I need to look at my intaday vix and cum vol to
make some of my recommendations.
March 10 2000
My best guess for expiration today. I would look to the 750 level or so for support and we may get a close above 767.March 9 2000
I found out the hard way that Tradestation 2000 is not compatible with Win 2000, go figure. I have to wait for a new build to come out this month sometime. I am lost without the 3vol bar chart, as it gives me a rough idea where the OEX is sitting.Perhaps we will see 750, or 722, which may come first. I would look to buy the 722 level today if we see it. I think there is an outside chance we could see the 715 level though, so bet accordingly.March 8 2000
Well, so far it is a perfect long entry at the exact low {from the email update, if you took it} . I couldn't recommend it though, as I knew it would have had to be an overnight hold so close to the close. I would look to close it above 739 if you took the trade.I bit the bullet and upgraded to Win 2000 professional edition. So far my monitor doesn't work properly, and I can't get Tradestation to run because it won't accept or find the password. The upgrade was less painful than I thought it would be. Sorry, none of the intraday charts are updated today, except for the Astro. I do know the NYA system went on a sell at 600.75. As soon as I get ADSL, that system will be updated in real time.
March 7 2000
We were denied a good entry again. I am sorry, I have no idea for today. All we got was a small rally off of the 13 day ER average. I won't venture an entry point for today. Here are the following charts:March 6 2000
I think Jon wants another stock recommendation {grin}. Well, it is pretty hard to top recent ones; RRRR which has almost doubled here very quickly, and TO :ANP which I recommended at around 15 dollars a share, and which is still not showing signs of a top. One stock being plugged up here is Book4golf.com symbol :BFDG. Their web site went up on the weekend... probably due to a negative article in the local paper about the stock trading at 17 Canadian on no revenue, and no web site. Yorkton Securities was in for .20 cents a share, I believe. The potential is there, but you are buying someone's dream. They are supposed to have deals in place where they get a five dollar cut from Green fees booked. If everything does come into play and they don't get killed from competion, this stock could see 300 dollars a share long term.
The OEX... as I stated in the afternoon email update I wouldn't want to hold a short overnight, as we didn't get the reversal. I would look to the 772 level for a short entry today, and use 780 as a stop. At the moneys. Not sure if the market will turn sharply enough for a good expiration trade.
March 3 2000
I was a little too optimistic on the long/short exit entry point yesterday. I was prepared to put out a email update at the close to stay long as the 30 minute was bottoming right on the close if we had gotten the long entry point. The only possible trade setup I see today is to look for a short entry at 761-762 today. I suspect any rally may fail today so I am reluctant to set a stop here. 762 also marks a price line on the moon chart.March 2 2000
"I wouldn't want to hold a short overnight if you are
trading the March contracts. We may get a gap up to the
750 level on the open as cum vol is still looking strong."
From the email update sent out ten minutes before the close.The 747 level was almost a perfect entry point as I had thought it would be... we just didn't get much follow through on the downside. Today we may get a slightly higher high, and a lower low. I would use 734 and 754 as stops if you want to play both the long and short side today from the 737-738 and the 749-750 levels, use at the moneys, and I wouldn't hold overnight.
.March 1 2000
No change in the strategy. Don't load the boat though above 745 especially if you are playing March contracts. If I am correct the OEX will not get above 757. CCI has not yet broken above the zero line, that is close to where you can expect a market turn.
February 29 2000
The retrace started right off of the 200 day. We may continue to get a sloppy rally here as we are still oversold on some indicators. I was surprised that we pulled back as much as we did yesterday when I sent the email out at the exact top of the day where I was considering a short, but cumulative volume was very positive. It will probably result in a gap up today. The hourly Fib Zones have shifted upward slightly for today. My strategy would be to scale into at the money puts here on any rally above 745. It may take the market a few days to turn at this point. 747 may be the perfect enty point, and I would allow for a rally as high as 757 this week.
February 28 200
Well it could be the 700 level is still in the cards. I don't have much to say today other then a possible retrace from the 711 level or so before another possible down leg, then the 706 level and then possibly the 700 level, and if the 700 level is broken the 680 level before I would consider the long side right now.February 25 2000
The 727 level held only briefly. I wasn't that optimistic it would; if you did take the entry point you had to sit through a ride to the Moon price line, where we got a decent reversal. I didn't take the trade, so I didn't send out an update. I was too focused on support breaking there. I still can't put down a concrete trade setup. I blew yesterday's. There may be a W bottom on the hourly as well. I am mad that I didn't see that. Sorry, no recommendation today.February 24 2000
As I said in the intraday update, we could break sharply on the open either way today. If we are going to establish a trend up, I would like to see the 727 level hold today, but, as noted by Momentum Cycles, put volume has made a sharp reversal. The 727 area may be a good long entry point if we do test it today {that is, if you want to risk playing the long side here} but currently I wouldn't hold any position overnight. Here is the 60 minute -please note that the normal astro chart doesn't show upper zones.February 23 2000
This market is so weak right now, it couldn't even manage a move to the 736 level. Daily indicators are creeping into oversold zones. Here is my feel for the market right now. If we can't manage any rally today with strong conviction, I suspect the OEX may test the 700 level this week. The only solid positive is the DOW system has gone back on a buy.February 22 2000
To quote from the email update sent out two hours before the close for traders that were considering going long "We could well be setting up for a mini-crash on Tuesday." The OEX then proceeded to drop ten points into the close. We need to gap down right off the open for that to occur. We closed right on the 150 day. A close above 736 may suggest further upside here if we are putting in a v bottom on the daily, and could suggest a runaway breakout to the upside. Note the put volume. I will suggest that the 740-742 level may contain any upside move for today.February 18 2000
Looks like the best way to upgrade to WIN2000 is to buy a new computer with compatible hardware already installed. No wonder techs are still rallying. Half my hardware is not currently compatible with Win2000. You can get a system check download from the MS site. Pretty wild bull and bear battle on Thursday with no resolve. I did have the feeling it would be this type of expiration. I don't think it is safe to hold a position for more than one hour, currently. What do I think might happen today? No clue, but I do suspect we may make it down to old support at the 740 level; if not today, maybe Monday or Tuesday.That is where I would consider a nibble at the long side, but right now I am still hesitant to recommend any position.
February 17 2000
The only chart that looks bullish to me is the 30 minute chart. All the other charts are not giving me any strong indications either way here. Maybe the CBOE put volume is trying to turn around here. Regardless of what happens at 10:00 am today, the market may just shrug it off, and could continue its bullish way, or else we could make one more lower low on the OBV on the OEX. The bands are tighter now. Sorry... I can't make any recommendation today.February 16 2000
It turns out there was a fake out move to almost the 746 level, which was a good buying opportunity if you took it. It came off of the Mars price line again. I am still amazed by these price lines. I would sell any calls on any move above 765. We could go to 770 here, but I have the feeling we may pull back from the 765 level. Not a recomendation to go short, though. Use 758 as a stop for today if you are long here.February 15 2000
Guess the OEX Friday? Not this week. Pretty tight range on Monday, with the OEX hanging around the daily astro price lines. We may be finished with the downside here with OBV perhaps putting in a bottom, but I don't like how far the bands have spread. All I will venture to say is that a close above 760 may indicate further rally here. We may still put in a lower low with a fake out move to the 746 level, but that might not be as likely now.February 14 2000
Well, the possible scenario I laid out on Wednesday certainly took place almost perfectly, but it happemed over two days. All I will say for today is that we may get a possible rally either from 742 or 744, if you want to bet on it. A Hail Mary rally may only get as high as 755, with a possible shot at the 761 level. No recommendation today. Just another quick note on Linux. Almost all of my sites will be hosted on a server using Linux next month. Currently only my sites at Smartt.com are on a Unix system.February 11 2000
It looks like I am going to be moving the site as soon I can get new credit card processing, and get a new emailer set up. It could happen by the end of March. I haven't been able to FTP all night again. Well the 763 level was almost a prefect entry point and we got as high as 669 into the close. I have no idea if you stayed long. If you did I would use 763 as a stop. I think we need to close above the falling average at 673 to get a gap up into Monday. The DOW system did go on a sell. None of the astro charts are updated back at the site as my data feed went down. If anybody knows how to get tick data into Galactic Trader please send me an email.February 10 2000
Maybe we should start betting the farm when this sets up again... screw the entry point. Even the 784 level tag was was momentary and there was no real chance of trading it on the open unless you had a market order in. Where to from here? I still see more room for downside action here, but we could get a rally right off the open, and the market never looks back if we are forming a V bottom on the five minute. If you do want to trade the long side at this point I would look for an entry at 762.59. Let us just say 763, but realize we could go as low as 757 if we are presently putting in a very short term bottom. The 760 level has a Fib Zone, and there is a daily Gann line there as well. Give yourself room, and use 755 as a stop, but only trade a small position. I would only target the 770 level today. We could go higher if we do put in a bottom today, but with this market right now anything goes, including a retest of the 730 level. I think the worst case for today could be the 753 level so I wouldn't bet the farm. Now that I think about it, if we do bounce off the 760 level or so and tag the 770 level, we may see 753 all in one day. I wouldn't be surprised. Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.February 9 2000
I had a good laugh today! I couldn't believe it after watching this program on NOVA. Everyone knows about LTCM, but I didn't know their strategy was based on the Black and Scholes model, and guess what... there is going to be a LTCM2. Please, if you want to burn money sent it to us. At least you have a good probability of getting a big return.
The OEX... a possible trade setup today is to look for a short entry above 790 and to use 795 as a stop. Target 784 and don't hold overnight. This trade may only materialize if we blow through 784 on the open. Otherwise we may see the OEX trade between 784 and 777 today.
February 8 2000
Blink of an eye... that is how traders should think. I see two possibilities here; the second one is what concerns me. The market looks neutral me, and maybe even a little oversold if you look at MSI. The daily indicators don't look so bullish at this point because the market couldn't manage a nice selloff, but we do seem to be forming a reappearing pattern as noted on the MAJ chart. A little slippage, sideways movement, and then a burst up. I wouldn't hope for any more than the 792 level if you are going to play the long side into expiration. A clue that you may see a breakout to the upside is that you may see the OEX tag the 50 bar average on the one minute chart,which is currently at 771, and then possibly rally strongly off it {if we do pull back here}. (Use the live chart links at this site. The OEX is in real-time.) I also wouldn't want to see the 768 level broken if you don't get a clean tag. I think we could also easily see a retest of the 730 level in a blink of an eye if they are setting this up. I don't like to go long when CBOE put volume has completely spiked down as in the recent past. It has usually happened within days of a short term top. Bottom line... I can't recommend a trade here and I don't see the ideal short set up either.February 7 2000
Oh yes, inflation is dead {abhor the consensus}. Just look at the CRB breakout out at Marketpit.com. It looks like we are getting the minor pullback, as I suggested. It came off of the upper daily Fib Zone, though. To go long or not? Right now I say no, but I have a target in mind if you want to take a stab at it. The 766 764 level. I would use 762 as a stop. The 766 level also coincides with the Mars price line. At the moneys as usual. Just by looking at some of my indicators, I am not confident we will get a strong rally from that level though, and the market may close at a level where holding overnight may be required to make the trade worthwhile.February 4 2000
The DOW system has gone back on a buy. Nothing much to add from this email sent out an hour before the close: "I would close out any longs here. We may see more upside
into the close, and a possible gap up open as cum breadth
and volume are acting very positive, but we are at the
upper RSI zone on the 5 minute."If bulls are lucky they could see the 792 level today. I don't like the bond euphoria though. Even though that wasn't a big surprise to us from the ten year COT chart posted at Marketpit.com. We could get a minor pullback into Monday or Tuesday. I don't have a trade setup today. The 755 level held perfectly. That level also almost coincided with the new astro price lines that I added to the hourly chart posted yesterday.
February 3 2000
It looks like a slow grind up for now. If the astro cycle continues to alternate, we could see a market peak a little after expiration. That is, of course, if the cycles hold. The last one was a low. They are currently alternating right now. We just barely got above the 770 Fib Zone on Wednesday. I would buy the dips here. You don't want to see the 755 level broken, though, and there is no recommendation to hold a position overnight. If I am right, and the bias for expiration is indeed to the upside, we may see the market continue to slowly inch up as long as the 755 level holds.February 2 2000
We could well be on our way to record highs in very short order. The 30 minute actually bottoms 2 hours after the open. We may get one more panic sell off to the 755-757 level today, but I think that would be healthy. We are right back to old resistance. Today we may see the true colors of this bull market, if it can power all the way through resistance here. If it doesn't, we could see a slow grind up along the trend lines on the five minute chart. Two possible Fib Zone scenarios: Tag the 780 level and bounce off the 770 level {if we do break strongly above it} or,alternately, bounce between the 750 and 760 level. Sorry, that is the best I can do today.February 1 2000
All the charts are back to normal, almost. My data files were corrupt. I still need to rebuild a few. This is the last commentary for this open house. In order to receive a notification of the next open house you have to register here: http://www.onelist.com/community/OEXTraders
Thanks. Marketpit.com is now up. It is still rather crude, especially if you use a Microsoft Browser, but it is a beginning. It is an interesting view from a COT perspective. Commercial traders seem to be indicating short term rates may be heading down, while the picture for long term rates still seems uncertain. Thanks Steve! Bulls got the retracemant off of a lower Fib Zone which was posted yesterday, {but I neglected to mention it} back up to the daily Gann line. I just wasn't sure if it would retrace to 744 or 752. Where to from here? We may get an explosive rally today, with hourly RSI jammed in overbought territory. ( I sometimes consider this as a contrary indicator, as everyone uses it). The only indicators keeping me from considering the short side here is the 1440 bar chart and the 3vol bar chart. I think the hourly cycle bottoms on the close. I think a close above today's high may indicate a breakout to the upside. If I was extremely bullish, I would like to see the 744 level hold today.
