OEX TRADER
For August 2, 1999 Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
I have support now at 665 on the hourly. I would only consider a long entry from that price point today. What will happen today? We may find support at 675 on the five minute chart. I don't see a major crash happening until we see the 150 broken on the daily cumulative volume chart. When that happens the market will usually muck around before really tanking. Daily cumulative breadth is already suggesting the bleeding maybe coming to stop, so I won't be surprised if we get a quick rally here the from 675 level. This is not a recommendation. If the market does find bottom today, it will probably suck out option premiums for a few days before maybe starting another leg up. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.For July 30, 1999
The NYA system has gone back on a sell. It caught the drop, but it won't show up on the System Report. Traders using this system have certainly been profiting from it of late. Stopped at the 50 day! 150 day coming up? I think we may first see a 66% retrace on the 3 vol. bar chart, that could take us to the 699 level or the 697 level on the Astro chart first. It will be interesting to see if the lows hold today. I suspect we may see a trading range today, marked by the 688 and the 694 level on the five minute chart. MAJ on both the hourly and the daily maybe indicating we are close to a bottom, I just don't like where MSI and the VB bands are sitting. If we do get a panic selloff today, which I don't think we will, buy the 670 level. We should get a very strong bounce from that level. Cumulative tick, and positive volume are not confirming this sharp drop.
For July 29, 1999
The NYA system has gone on a buy. It was a tough call at the close, but cum vol. wasn't strong enough to warrant going long. I still have Deja Vu. ( I am referring to what happened two years ago around this time.) You don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a very sharp drop. It looks like we may just be rolling over slowly here for now. Sorry I was short on time yesterday. I was referring to the daily Gann, and the five minute chart. The astro cycle chart is signaling a possible low on Friday. The last low provided a launch pad. I have no high confidence trade setup today. I may provide an update at the close. Marketpit.com won't be up anytime soon. I got kicked of the server as someone had hacked there way in though the software. I am looking for another one that wants to host a chat site. Sorry folks.
For July 28, 1999
Surprisingly, the NYA system didn't give a buy today. I can make a real bullish case here based on some of my indicators. Master11 is in the buy zone for one, but I suspect by the time it turns up this rally maybe dead. I think we are going to the 150 day, which is currently just above the 660 level. That is not unreasonable target. I have two targets for short entries, one is just below yesterdays high at the 703 level. Use a tight stop at 707. At the money puts. The other maybe a slight overshoot above a daily Gann line. Look for an e-mail update near the market close if I decide trigger a possible short recommendation from the second target. If a rally is going to fail today it should be in the morning. I am getting Deja vu.
For July 27, 1999
Well they robbed of us a good entry if GLOBEX holds up this morning. I am almost tempted to short the rally on the open, but my indicators all look to be suggesting an oversold market. I was hoping for a sharp selloff that would have taken the OEX to the 690 level, and then have the cycles kick in the afternoon. I suspect the OEX may rally ten points today, and then possibly go sideways for a few days. No trade setup today. I hope you like the way I have setup maketpit.com. I could have gone with a java chat, but I like this setup. I think there is some more features that I haven't figured out how to implement yet. Give it time, it usually take quite a while before a chat site becomes active. I know it doesn't look like much yet, but take a look at how the OEX Trader started from a free home page.
For July 26, 1999
The NYA system has gone back on a sell. MSI finally made a pivot, but not a sharp one. Traders that took the long trade should have been stopped out, as the OEX fell 4 points intraday. The 1440 minute channel has been tested several times so far, and has held. Did I hear two major stock exchanges are going public?? Wow, what a perfect background for a major top, and for the pundits to look back on. The hourly bottoms 90 minutes before the close, and the 30- minute bottoms 3 hours before the close. There is Fib support between the 690-684 level. Buy at the money calls at 690, use 682 as a stop. 690 is also a Gann hit on the daily. Hold overnight if you get a ten point bounce. There might be something up at marketpit.com sometime today. I am starting it as a chat site, and I hope to turn it into raging bull style board. Forgot, the NDX system went on a buy.
For July 23, 1999
The NYA system has gone back on a buy. The intraday system managed to scalp a few points on the short side. You couldn't have asked for a better entry. It was a perfect tag on the hourly Gann, and the Trix Gann chart also. Hourly MAJ is suggesting we could still see some power to the upside. Twin Peaks may also be finding support here. What I don't like is, MSI still hasn't dropped from the upper band. I am worried about missing a crash here. My only suggestion for longs is to trail a four point stop here. There are too many possible targets on the Fib chart. We get a lot of inquiries from our weekend guests. Some answers to FAQs. If you want to trade the OEX, my only suggestion is, don't put more than ten percent of your risk capital into one trade. The Cycle section usually uses a 1.50 point stop on an option trade recommendation. Travis loves to trade, and his recommendations are usually very specific. Here our some recent www updates. Bob is one of the authors and of the Cycle section. I don't usually send e-mail updates, as I usually have a trade setup posted.
*** I have added a live SP500 chart link to the Market Info and Games page. Traders Resources is giving us a one time offer, DayTrading into the Millennium, for 20% less than AMZN or B&N. You can get it at this OEX Trader link.
For July 22, 1999
The intraday system went flat after the 714 level was tagged. It this system keeps going at this rate, it should turn in about 300 points for the year. Do you buy the open? That is the only trade I see today, but I wouldn't try it. The NYA is still on a sell. We could still make it to the 704 level. Lets look for a long entry at the 704 level if other intraday cycles line up near that level over the next few days. Daily MAJ is right at support. Is it a coincidence MPPP went public at the same time the Stones made this announcement? What a rocket! Shorts are complaining it is so overpriced. They will get squeezed even more. Watch GOCA, are ship maybe finally starting to come in. Sorry, last note here for longs. If we are going to get a bounce today, it may be from the 695-697 trend line on the bondspread chart. I would place the order for at the money calls at the 697 level if you want to be aggressive here. You may want to close out the position quickly if the 695 level doesn't hold. Here is, cumulative volume, astro, astro2 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.
For July 21, 1999
I had to change the page. This page will look best if your monitor is set to 600x800. I had the text set in a table, but it was rather annoying when you had to click back as it would take you back to the center of the page instead of where you started viewing a chart. We finally got CBOE data. Support didn't hold. When you get a major break of support this is usually what happens. The OEX trading system has gone back on a buy. MSI has also quickly risen back up into the oversold zone and the long term hourly looks to have bottomed on schedule. The intraday system will go back on a buy if the OEX rises above 714. I am just noting this for people that are interested in this system. It can give several buys and sells intraday. I may offer pager alerts if this system continues operate this well. Incidentally the system report doesn't note that the first trade started 3/13/99. One minute cumulative volume is still tracking down. I am hesitant to recommend a long position here, as we may have had a major break of support, MAJ on the hourly may provide a dead-cat bounce, but MAJ on the daily may still be suggesting the bull is intact. Daily cumulative volume support hasn't yet been broken. BUY GOTO! This will probably be a 200 dollar stock if this e-mail I received from the company today is any indication.
For July 20, 1999
Well, me missed a perfect short entry on this side by a few points. The NYA, and the OEX systems went back on sells. The only trade setup I see today, is to buy the 722-724 level,(note, the new 3 vol bar chart) we may get a sharp rally from that level if we see it today. There is a lot of support on a lot of charts at that level. I would use a stop at the 718 level. The long term hourly cycle bottoms 90 minutes before the close, it gets easier to read as cycle lows approaches. If you take the possible trade setup, I would stay long only if we get a good 6 point cushion. There is a total eclipse coming up I believe, August 11th. Should make for an interesting summer. Here are the recent intra-day system trades. Note, I haven't been able to get any CBOE data from Dial data the last few days.
For July 19, 1999
If you find this setup hard to read, just let me know. I am trying to make this page look as professional as possible. I may use the same setup on the index page as I like the look. Anyone want to be a guinea pig? An SC4 real-time Y2K update has come out. I had real bad experience with TS2000 change over. My main concern is loosing the daily Gann chart, as that took a long time to setup. Please let me know if it changes your Gann charts. I also can't get TS2000 to plot Gann charts the same as SC4. Am I missing something? One other thing. The intraday system has worked rather well so far without even being optimized for intraday. I still need one years worth of TC2000 test data though to be confident with it. I am told no one has come out with a intraday sytem that really works yet. Note, the RINA index, and the system is only in the market 7% of the time If anyone knows how to setup TS2000 system for e-mail updates, please drop me a line. I will try and reciprocate any help that is offered. My M.S. right now keeps for me keeping regular hours, as sometimes I have to stay lying down for extended periods. I would like to be able to send out the updates. I mostly likely will be able to continue doing this for 6 months or so. I hope to be able to turn my systems and charts over to someone else to update for me if my health doesn't get any better otherwise I may just turn the site over to my fellow traders. In any event I need to take a 6 month break from this in the New Year. I have been doing this for almost a solid three years without any extended real break. I may change my mind if my health improves. On to today. Well, I was off by a little on the hourly Gann chart. The 1440 minute channel has the 737 level as being a possible good short entry position for today it also lines up perfectly with the Fib zone. The 740 level ,and the 747 also mark possible good short entry points. I prefer to just stand aside here as the intraday cycles are mixed. The long term hourly bottoms two hours after the open tomorrow.
For July 16, 1999I am really beginning to think there is a conspiracy. Nah! It just seems one minute cumulative volume cuts out at the weirdest times. The same for the Nasdaq. Cumulative volume seems to provide a good clue for the open most of the time. I have noticed Nasdaq cumulative volume can give you a clue as to the direction of the OEX intraday as well. I am hesitant to use a stop for traders that bought on the close as you either win big or not all ,but 724 seems to be a key Fib level. I have 731-732 as being resistance on the hourly Gann chart. I would look to close out longs there. Both the NYA and the OEX trading went back on buys. As traders may have noticed, I have made some changes to the OEX Trader. Before, I didn't really care as my income is derived from trading, but I now see the bigger picture. You can become a billionaire if you have the right setup. But seriously, I think most of our subscribers are quite happy. I really believe we have one of the best Elliotticians on the web at this site. Sorry, don't mean to put pressure on you Travis, but you are. I also think he is underpaid for the work he does, as well as the slightly more conservative Cycle section. Some sites charge triple our current rates. If we can 10x our traffic to this site we can bring in some serious revenue. I have added these free links to our site, MarketInfo, you can get free real time quotes from that page, and a second opinion page. I also have added a second opinion links page. Tell people about the OEX Trader or make it your home page. I have made it easy for you to start a search from this site or travel to other popular web sites.
For July 15, 1999Lumber makes headlines up here in beautiful, British Columbia, Canada. Whenever the US housing market heats up we know it. I remember that Travis mentioned that that is one of his favorite markets to trade. If he was bullish, he made a killing. Makes me wonder if the bond bulls on the tube early this morning are out to lunch. I could basically repeat my commentary of yesterday with one exception. The 30 minute cycle bottoms exactly on the close. These intraday cycles have been pretty incredible lately. If you are trading the last few days of expiration you may want to buy the close.
For July 14, 1999I hope Travis get his rocket launch. I just don't see any great setup today. Hourly MAJ and the hourly cycle may have both bottomed. The 30 minute cycle and the longer term hourly looks to be bottoming over the next few days, while cumulative one minute volume looks to be dying here. I doubt if I will be providing an intraday update today as I haven't gone to bed yet. The hourly Gann line comes in around 728 ,and so far that line has acted like a magnet to turn back rallies. I am hesitant to recommend going short there if Travis is right. One of the Twin Peaks maybe saucering here as well. A subscriber asked me to say something about GNEN today. I still think the stock is great gamble. The current CEO quit due to health reasons and they are seeking someone experienced in the music industry to take over. The market sure liked the news and the volume has been huge of late.The market may also be smelling the coming name and symbol change to Cdmusic (CDMU). I am not trading this stock, if it hits, it will hit big. I own 30,000 shares, 20,000 bought at .19 and 10,000 bought at .40. I am still holding all my GOCA and SETO shares. SETO could surprise everyone in a big way, the way they are currently going. They are all good Internet plays. I have had one penny stock go on the pink sheets, Leah, but that wasn't a recommendation here, so act accordingly as anything is possible with a penny stock. I made a mistake yesterday, the NYA system went on a sell today. There wasn't even a sell on the chart, I think I am staring to see things.
For July 13, 1999They work it so good. They gave bulls a little rally just after the close. I think it is one company that accounts for most of the OEX volume, and that is by writing OEX options. The NDX and the NYA system are now on sells as well. I have also noticed that there is one savvy trader who trades lots of 200, and the trader usually puts on a trade before the start of a sharp rally. We didn't quite make it to the 726-727 level for a perfect short entry. It is very rare that they will give you a ten point drop during e-week if you managed to go short, but if the 718 level doesn't hold this morning, we may have a top forming on the weekly chart and a trip back down to the 700 level may not be out of the question. But I am not looking for a position trade here yet. So far the scenario I laid out with this chart a couple of days ago maybe coming into play today. I noted a sharp selloff can happen close to the particular alignment. I would close out any shorts fifty minutes after the open before the hourly cycle bottoms. I zoomed in on the chart, the cycle bottoms closer to an hour, not two hours after the open. A VIX failure at 22 may keep the bullish case alive. I have no long entry point other than you may want to try and scalp a few points off the hourly cycle. The NQAGG is my speculative expiration play. I would buy the calls near the open and look for a double, maybe not today. I don't like the August forty calls yet, we will see how this week plays out.
For July 12, 1999Thanks for your responses. I am going with the a majority choice, markpit.com. It is the hands of a programmer now, which means I can't get an exact date for completion. Sorry, the hourly cycle actually bottoms on Tuesday morning two hours after the open, not this morning as I thought when I looked at it on Thursday. Third waves can be bear killers, but for the bears look for a short entry at 726-727 today unless we blow right through that level. I don't thing the next big leg up is going to start yet though if the CBOE put/call indicator is any indication. We may get a quick peak here and then a short selloff with the market maybe drifting sideways for a few months. That prognosis is just based on that indicator. Fearless bulls may get a buying opportunity at the 717 level. Whether that coincides with the hourly bottom remains to be see. I was a little hesitant with the e-mail update at the close, as the bottom indicator was near the top zone, but cumulative volume was certainty suggesting a gap up today on the open. Longs should use 716 as a stop today. The NYA system went back on a buy.
