January 14 2000 Livechart 30- minute
T-Spread Volume
Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don.
We are still close to the oversold level on the 3vol bar chart ;a good trade setup for those playing expiration may be to look for a short entry at 797 ,and to close the position out at 793. We may get another gap up open on Monday.
Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.January 13 2000
Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don. Below is the email update he usually sends in the evening. There is still room to be on the email list for another 100 subscribers. We will keep this opportunity open until the end of the month, or until another 100 subs sign up. Go here if you wish to sign up for the email updates.RangeTrader for 1-13-99 Open
Bottom Line: Barring a positive reaction to the PPI, the
trend appears to be down into next week. A weak rally can
be sold at 1452-54 with the stop at today's high. Look to
cover on a .75 or 1.0 EDR. Any rally is not likely to be
a barnburner.EOD Stats for 1-12-00:
Open - 1454.00
High - 1456.50
Low - 1439.00
Close - 1442.00Pivot Value for Thursday 1-13-00 = 1445.83.
Recap:
The open was marginally greater than the Tuesday close.
The low of the March E-mini was 1439.00, within .50 of the
first projected forecast range of 1438.63-1435.40. Most
evidently, the weight of the trend watch needed to be on
this trader's mind more than a possible completion of a
wave 4.Today, 10 similar days came up from the past. The queries
are now decidedly bearish. Based on splitting out the
queries on an opening higher or lower than the Wednesday
1442.00 close,we came up with the following probability tree.70% of the opens were greater than the Wednesday close, of
these 7, four closed greater than 1442.00.
Average Close - 1455.30
Average High - 1460.78
Extreme High- 1475.00
Average Low- 1440.00 or 40% probability of a
higher close.The three closing below Wednesday's close exhibited this
pattern:
Average Close - 1412.40
Average High - 1448.60
Average Low - 1410.2030% of the Openings were under 1442.00 the average range
normal today's close showed the following:
There was one very extreme day 10-12-1989, 358 to 328 on a
closing basis… That is an 8% haircut.Excluding the extreme,
Average Close 1425.25
Average High 1452.00
Average Low 1417.21
Estimated Daily Range excluding the extreme day, yields
25.32
Estimated All Average OHLCOpen 1447.30-1443.80
High 1454.70-1452.80
Low 1419.60-1417.20
Close 1427.14-1424.75
Trend Watch: Visual inspection reveals 7 down days, most
into Friday turn around time at the earliest. One
congestion set for 4 days and 2 up CIT days, one of which
was a key reversal day.I also considered one other thing, since 70% of the days
are down, what is the average high for these down days can
I expect? The answer; an average high of 1452.20.Conclusion: Barring a positive reaction to the PPI, the
trend appears to be down into next week. A weak rally can
be sold at 1452-54 with the stop at today's high, this is
a 70% trade and probably worth thinking about.Good Luck and Good Trading
Don Thompson
If you are new to this site, usually the MomentumCycle section updates in the evening and I update 3 hours before the open. The MomentumCycle has the bond trader. This site is mainly a tool for traders. All our commentaries are based on our indicators found in each section. Bob, and Jon are the writers for the MomentumCycle section. Whether you are a day trader or end of day trader we belive this site has all the tools you need to make an informed decision in the time frame that you may choose to trade. I believe the trading systems alone are worth the price of a subscription.
Thanks RickJanuary 13 2000
I wish I had gotten in an update at the close as the 30 minute bottomed exactly at the close. The indicators are still a mixed bag to me. I don't like where MSI is but the hourly RSI may still be bullish here. Hourly MAJ may also be suggesting further upside here. The upper Fib Zone on the hourly is now at 786-788. Beware a market that may run away if it breaks strongly above 788; if you are bearish look for a short entry today at 786. The lower FIB Zone is at 779-780. If we cut through 776 there doesn't seem to be any support from here.January 12 2000
Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don, whose e mail projections yesterday were virtually perfect. The volume bands are now linked at the NYA system page. So far the system has tested well on an intraday basis. The system report is based on one year of data tested down to the tick. Until Omega fixes the email bug this system will continue to be posted at the end of the day. I won't commit to sitting in front of a computer all day since I like golfing too much. Well, the Fib Zones I mentioned yesterday were virtually perfect. As I mentioned before the close, they shifted downward slightly, and I suggested the scenario of a gap up open to 788 where we could possibly enter another short. Looking at hourly RSI and the 30 minute, I am not confident about any short entry today. I think the key level will be the 790-792 level. If we manage to close above that level, it is possible we may get a rally that lasts into Wednesday. No entries are recommended today. The lower Fib Zone is at 780, and the upper is almost the same today. The Curry protected high and low is 778 and 790.January 11 2000
A stock to watch is RRRR. It trades on the Nasdaq.Be aware,however,that it has already had a good run.Older readers may remember HEAR,in contrast,which we picked up at 10 at the start of a great run. Here is the site. They designed the GO2net logo. The only reason I like the stock {although not really at this price unless you are willing to sock it away for 5 years,but who knows it might not even fall back from here!} is this division: Iface.com. I was inquiring about the technology to use on Chatpit and this site (maybe). This technology could replace 900 numbers. What you can basically do is leave a prerecorded message on a web site with ease.You can update the message anytime. This was only one aspect of the company.On to the OEX. Yesterday's projected high was very close. The low had no chance once we broke above the Fib Zone and hung there all day. 783 and 796 are the actual Fib Zones mentioned at the close on the hourly .Hourly MAJ may be rolling over. That is why I suggested sloppy market action for today. Bob's cones maybe the best bet. The Curry projected high and low is 787 and 797. Below is Don's email update for users that haven't signed up for the email service. Feel free to send any feedback. Thanks.
RangeTrader For Market Open 1-11-00
EOD Stats
Open - 1474.00
High - 1479.80
Low - 1462.50
Close - 1475.00Pivot Value for Tuesday 1-11-00 1472.45
Today's query resulted in 10 hits on a query criterion
that is fairly broad.Tomorrow's Open to Pivot relationships:
If the Open is Greater > than 1474.45:
There is an 80% chance of a close higher than Monday's
close by an average of 13.80 points, with the maximum
excursion being 28 points above today's high.
The only down close under this query set was under today's
close by 5.50 points, it was the only one to challenge and
exceed today's low, it closed lower than Monday's low.If the Open is Less (<) than 1474.45:
There is an 80% chance of a close lower than Monday's
close by an average of 8.00 points with the
maximum challenge being 25.80 points. Only two of these 5
instances challenged and exceeded today's high value of
1479.80. The only contrary close was +9.80 points above
Monday's close.The Estimated Daily Range is 18.08, slightly less than
Monday's 18.80, implying a bit less volatility.Estimated OHLC.
Open - 1473.80
High - 1483.00 to 1485.75
Low - 1465.10 to 1467.70
Close - 1475.63 to 1478.00
Tom DeMark Hi-Low Projection 1486.05 High 1468.75 Low.
RangeTrader's High estimate from yesterday was exceeded
by three S&P points, the DeMark projection was for a high
of 1486.Trend watch:
6 out of the 10 days showed upward trend bias culminating
in the middle of next week. Interestingly, if we are
currently seeing wave 4 behavior, three of the samples
profiled a dramatic three day sell off, offering argument
that any failure to make a new high might be a decent
shorting opportunity.
Good Luck and Good Trading,
Don Thompson
January 10, 2000
Well, the projected low was virtually perfect,but the high was incorrect {as I thought it might be}. I had mentioned that I wouldn't short this market, and would only consider a short at the 778 -782 level. As I said near the close on Friday, we may only see a minor pullback for the open Monday,if at all. There is currently no upper Fib Zone showing on the astro chart. The 60 minute Astro shows possible support at the 789 level if we break though that level today. I would like to point out to new subscribers how well MSI and the oddlots caught this move. I am just surprised it happened in one day. Today's projected high is 795 and the projected low is 771.January 7, 2000
Head and shoulders top or record highs? It doesn't look like we will get to the 740 level today. If we do break out here we may get a pullback on Tuesday or Wednesday which will enable us to get long, as this market still looks bullish to me. However, the put/call ratios still need to fall to lower levels in order to sustain any strong move from here. Today's projected low is 760 and the high is 770. Since it looks like we may gap up sharply on the open, it is possible the move could sustain itself as a lot of short term indicators are oversold. I don't recommend going short here. If we do gap down on the open we could see the 740 level. I don't see any ideal trade setup today , but I would consider a short position from the 778- 782 level if we get there today.January 6, 2000
I can't get an accurate open price from last year to make a yearly projection. Today's projected low is 754, and the high is 775. I don't think the 775 has a chance, but note that yesterday's projections were only off by a few points! I did draw your attention to the 768 level, which was the exact high, and the 50 day which was the exact low. 769-771 and 749-747 are today's Fib Zones. I expect we may see the 740 level either today or tomorrow if the above zone doesn't hold.
January 5, 2000
"Two quotes from the email updates: Not sure if the fed has stopped hauling back the cash. Cum
vol. is still in a death spiral. I don't have any support
here beyond the trendlines at the 760 level on the
bondspread chart. Has there ever been a crash in January?
We may find out tomorrow as the 740 level looks to be the
next support level if it doesn't hold here. I may only
post a very brief commentary tomorrow."We don't sell your email address. In fact I believe we only sent out two promos last year. Here is Don's Range Trader Probabilities posted via email. I may post them here occasionally.
Tomorrow's Probabilities:Maximum Expected High 1437.50
Minimum Expected Low 1370.54On average:
Open 1422
High 1432
Low 1409
Close 142343% chance of an Open > Close
38% chance of an open > pivot at 1424.93If for some reason the open should ever get above the
pivot, there is very high probability that the close will
be above the pivot. Not much there since the close would
be anywhere between 1411.80 and 1424.90! So much for
Stats....If the Open is < Pivot there is a 61% chance of the close
being greater than 1411.80.Overall another retest of today's low.
Yesterday's range was narrow out of year-end thin trading.
Tomorrow's stats will provide a better bead on Range.Don
I did state in December that I would start posting price projections for the OEX using the method Jim used here before. I haven't quit committed to it yet as I find the Fib Zones work equally well under normal market conditions. Today's projected high is 770 and the low is 746 which is also close to the 50 day. The 768 level also corresponds with the Mars price line. I am looking at a way of putting the price projections in place in here so users could input a stock price or index and automatically get a projection. It may happen this year. It depends on getting a data feed. I am not willing to pay $2000 dollars a month for a feed yet. Bob is going to be featuring his Cone charts on the Monthly Feature chart section. We will be building a data base of all the indicators on this site. Sort of a FAQ section.
January 4, 2000
Two quotes from the email updates:"Two things stand out to me going into the close. The
dollar has stopped trading which was the main culprit
behind the selloff and the NDX is holding up. Two zones I
am looking at for entries are 788-792 for a short entry
and 766 for a long entry. It is hard to tell if we saw a
wash out today. There maybe a gap down on the open. If the dollar does recover tomorrow we could have one heck of a rally. We are stuck on the lower Fib Zone right now.This maybe as good as it get for a short entry but you
would have to hold overnight. There is no safe trade setup
unless we fall 5 points into the close to hold overnight.The NAZ is still rocking. Cum vol. is suggesting a gap down
though but you want to live another day to trade. There
will be better setups."So far it is looking like the 788 level was a good short entry point if I had talked you in to holding overnight.Cum vol. sometimes is good indication of next days open, and it appears that maybe the case this morning. I really do think it is easier to trade futures as you can hold a comfortable stop overnight. So far I like Don's trading style. No wild man trader there. There maybe serious further revisions in the charts you see posted. I hope you like the way the MomentumCyle section has been setup. We are trying to make navigation as easy as possible. Now for today. I fixed the data feed and I am getting some serious mileage out of the Fib Zones with the Astro Trader program. I am not paid to plug it but if you are considering your first purchase of a trading software package I would choose it over Trade Station for you first purchase. I wouldn't even consider purchasing other trading software. On to today. I have added several Fib charts to my arsenal. The 798 level was a perfect entry yesterday but the 789 level was a lost cause. mind you I am still fooling around with the intraday Fibs but most of them show the 778 and 768 level as two possible long entry points for today on different time frames with the 778 level more dominant. You may want to divide a possible trade into two. Your best bet may be to wait until MSI gives a buy pivot. The 30 minute bottoms three hours before the open so we may at least get a dead cat bounce. Not sure what time I will get up tomorrow. Just a quick note for new subscribers. We gave our current subscribers a bonus month in order to run this promotion.
January 3, 2000
I wasn't sure if I would make this update, but my cold turned out to be not very severe after I got some decent sleep. Here are the Fib Zones, but I think they are in error due to lost data. I bought another computer just to run this program. There are some minor glitches with the com ports as occasionally the computer stops collecting data. I am waiting for the 32 bit program before I start to try and figure out the problem. The Fib Zones may work quite well on Internet stocks that are trading like commodities. I have loaded a few in . I am taking requests from day traders who wish to use the Fib Zones for a particular Internet stock. I am thinking of posting five to ten charts. I need at least a week of data before I can plot the Fib Zones, so get your requests in today so I can collect the data. 798 and 789 are the Fib Zones showing up on the daily chart. A close on or above 798 may suggest a move to 804. Today and Tuesday are usually bullish according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. One thing traders should think about is whether program trading has been curtailed due to potential Y2K problems. I have the feeling this week may be the same as last in terms of volatility.
December 31,1999
I would like to welcome Don Thompson to the OEX Trader. He will be providing updates via email in the new year. I think this was a rather exciting year for the OEX Trader. We saw some great analysts come on board. I just wanted to thank all our subscribers for making this site possible. Best of luck to everyone in the New Year. My thanks to everyone that has made a contribution to the OEX Trader, and especially my partners in the MomentumCycles section.
The Fib Zones have widened for today. The lower zone matches the lower trend line on the five minute chart. However, intraday VIX is on a sell trend. I am not even going to venture a guess as to what might happen today.
Happy New Year everyone!
December 30,1999
Those Fib Zones were perfect yesterday. Today they have shifted down slightly. Intraday VIX is just barely hanging there. I would be really surprised if we can blow through the 808 level today. The bottom line so far is that the OEX has done nothing,just as I had suggested. MSI is close to creeping into the sell zone. I think the 788 level has now become very important support. One thing that could support the market even longer is the dollar. It may become a safe haven for investors concerned about Y2K. I would still look to the 808 level for a short entry, but in all likelihood it would mean holding a short into a usually very bullish time of year.December 29,1999
I forgot to mention yesterday that I had changed this Astro chart to an intraday chart. I have only just started feeding the program intraday data. So far the Fib Zones seem to work quite well intraday. No decision on the planetary lines yet. I hope it is clear enough for readers to view the price lines and zones. I am getting the 32 bit version, so we may yet see some changes to that chart. It is really hard to gauge sentiment here or get a feel as to what may happen going into Friday. We are now more overbought on some of my indicators, but my intraday VIX indicator barely gave a buy signal on the close. The regression target is now slightly above 808. My feeling is that buyers are going to end this year with a big bang on the upside, but remember that everyone else may also be thinking that. Maybe a fakeout to the 788 level first if we are not hot out of the gate at the open.December 28,1999
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Sorry for the late update, I am still under the weather so to speak. Y2K plunge coming up? Well. I have to say the market looks almost neutral here to me. I don't have a strong conviction as to which way it will break. I would only consider a short entry above 806. That seems like a good bet to me. 801-803 may be as high as we get though. I don't think the market will do a lot between now and the new year. Intraday VIX has not given a clear buy signal but it isn't on a sell either. I am sorry I have been rather tardy in replying to email of late. I am doing the best I can and I will reply as soon as possible..December 24,1999
It looks like we will have a new trader on board in 2000. Don Thompson. We haven't quite worked out the format yet but he trades the e-mini.Also Jim Curry has been kind enough to give us the formula he used for daily projected trading ranges when he was here at the OEX Trader. I hope to implement it into a new formats here. We will be having an open house for the whole mouth of January. Accordingly we will give all subs another bonus month. I wish everyone a Merry Christmas. I will be back on Tuesday.
Thank you.
RickDecember 17,1999
Intraday Trix is still on a buy. The US dollar is right at support.The upper Gann line on the weekly comes in at 779-780. The upper band on this chart is around 785-787. I have two support levels; 769 and 760. It is still too difficult to make a call here. First, I would like to wish Travis the best of luck on his new venture. I was going to take a holiday somewhere in this time frame. I am now going to take it this week. I will only update the system charts next week, and I may provide an occasional email update. I forgot to mention the 30 minute cycle yesterday;note that it bottomed perfectly on schedule. I did mention it before the open in the email update on Wednesday.
December 16,1999
CMGI, and a falling dollar. Looks like a mixed open. I didn't notice it, but a friend said there was a lot of put volume on the OEX on Wednesday. Open interest looks even. Intraday VIX is barely on a buy, as I said yesterday before the close. The first support line held. Anybody buy the December 90 GNETs in the morning? I didn't buy the OEX, and I doubt if I will today. My only concern for the close on Friday is where GNET and AMZN will close if I don't dump them today.December 15,1999
PK for breakfast? I changed the volume link to an hourly chart. PK is right at support, as is the Gann daily and the hourly chart. I mentioned we were right at support at the close yesterday.If we break support here the market could easily trade down to the 745 -747 level. The US dollar has kept this market from tanking. Intraday VIX is still on a sell, but may be close to giving a buy signal. Another up expiration? It could be. However,I don't think I would even buy the 745 level. I still think this will be a dangerous expiration to play, but if you have faith in the dollar it looks like it is going to be up.
December 14,1999
Sell it! Sell it! Sell it! I could paint a really bearish picture here with breadth, volume and the CBOE put call ratio, but the market has been rising in spite of these indicators. Intraday VIX is on a sell ;note that it broke the previously mentioned 21.6 level, however, the OEX held near my support level. A good trade might be to short any sharp rally on the open, but please remember we are quite oversold if you take breath and volume into account. 774-775 may be a good short entry point if we get there today. I think this expiration may be dangerous to trade due to the triple witch. I bet the big boys are "hedged up to their yin yang". I can't believe that ATHM has come back from the dead. I am very hopeful now with those Jan 60 calls.December 13,1999
I hope you like some of the changes I have made to the
page. I really like the earnings feature,which is a new
adddition. I no longer have to try out and find out when
earnings may be made public The best time to buy an option
on an Internet stock is usually the third week before earnings
are announced, and then to sell it before earnings actually
materialize..Intraday VIX is still on a buy as long as the 21.6 level holds.
The FIB zones are at the 749 and the 770 level. I have support listed at 760- 761. I would like to see that level hold today.It looks like we may get an automatic credit card renewal
option. It will cost us $5000 dollars to set it up. I don't know how long it will take to set up. It took months just to have the current system that is in place work smoothly. The domain name game starts again. Here is a copy of a recent email I received.
