The RangeTrader is currently only via email updates. Livechart30- minute
T-Spread Volume
Put Volume
RangeTrader for 02-01-00 OpenGood Evening.
End of Day Closing Statistics:
Open -1366.00
High -1402.40
Low -1357.00
Close -1401.00
Pivot Value For Tuesday is 1386.80.Recap:
The market opened 50 cents down, casting it initially into
the down open scenario with a 50% chance of closing
higher. As the morning went on, the first clue that this
wasn't going to be a bleak day was the down close profile
high of 1368.80 was solidly broken not once, but twice
with the S&P futures trading up into the 1374 region. The
first attempt to attack the Up Closer Low of 1356.10 was
met with buying. The second attempt was a little lower
but didn't touch the 1356.10 forecast. The market closed
almost two full deviations above the 1380.75 forecast
close. The best guess for a key reversal day came to
pass.For Tuesday the chances for an up open are only 33% with a
50% chance of a higher close.
Gap Up Profile:
Average Open 1401.10 Extreme High 1430.10
Average High 1428.40 Extreme Low 1389.80
Average Low 1393.41 Hi-Low spread 35.00
Average Close 1414.45 StdDev -Sample too smallDown Gap Profile:
A 66% chance exists for a down gap opening with a 0%
chance of an up close.Average Open 1400.95 Extreme High 1410.60
Average High 1406.20 Extreme Low 1376.60
Average Low 1383.20 Hi-Low spread 23.00
Average Close 1389.40 StdDev 11.18Now for the upside and downside closer profiles
Up Close Profile:
Today's huge run places this particular day into the .0016
probability of ever happening, thus to say the least, it's
a relatively extreme event. What I have done for the
upside profile is loosen one of the parameters to obtain a
higher percentage of upside days in order to obtain a
valid profile.
Hopefully, the exuberance of such a day will lend validity
to this range.
Average Open 1401.85 Extreme High 1444.00
Average High 1419.75 Extreme Low 1388.25
Average Low 1397.55 Hi-Low spread 22.20
Average Close 1417.60 StdDev 10.97Down Close Profile:
This profile is based on very tight qualifications and
represents today very accurately, thus note that a 66%
chance of a lower open, with a 100 % chance of closing
lower. The opening range is very close to the close, so
there is no clue as to what might happen based on the
opening gap.Average Open 1401.00 Extreme High 1426.75
Average High 1410.30 Extreme Low 1376.74
Average Low 1384.55 Hi-Low spread 25.75
Average Close 1391.60 StdDev 11.78
All Average Profile
Open 1401.00 Extreme High 1430.10
High 1413.60 Extreme Low 1376.61
Low 1386.50 Range 27.10
Close 1397.85 Std Dev 11.93I would put some careful study into the down close profile
since it is the key profile for such an event as Monday's
higher close.TrendWatch: Isn't being looked at tonight due to its
complexity and problems getting the analysis done. In
addition it's a news day. I would expect the day to
function according to either profile up until the rate
announcement.Good Luck and Good Trading,
Don Thompson
February 1 2000
All the charts are back to normal, almost. My data files were corrupt. I still need to rebuild a few. This is the last commentary for this open house. In order to receive a notification of the next open house you have to register here: http://www.onelist.com/community/OEXTraders
Thanks. Marketpit.com is now up. It is still rather crude, especially if you use a Microsoft Browser, but it is a beginning. It is an interesting view from a COT perspective. Commercial traders seem to be indicating short term rates may be heading down, while the picture for long term rates still seems uncertain. Thanks Steve! Bulls got the retracemant off of a lower Fib Zone which was posted yesterday, {but I neglected to mention it} back up to the daily Gann line. I just wasn't sure if it would retrace to 744 or 752. Where to from here? We may get an explosive rally today, with hourly RSI jammed in overbought territory. ( I sometimes consider this as a contrary indicator, as everyone uses it). The only indicators keeping me from considering the short side here is the 1440 bar chart and the 3vol bar chart. I think the hourly cycle bottoms on the close. I think a close above today's high may indicate a breakout to the upside. If I was extremely bullish, I would like to see the 744 level hold today. Here are the following charts: cumulative volume, astro, astro2, 5 minute, hourly cycles ,Gann hourly,daily Trix, and the 3vol bar chart.January 31 2000
I tried just about everything to get the Global Server to work on the weekend. I hope I have better luck with tech support today. If I was an Elliottician, I would seriously be considering whether the last peak is a failed fifth. That wouldn't bode well for the bulls for the remainder of the year. As for today, I think it will be a crap shoot as to where the OEX may retrace. I have 744 and the 752 level in mind. I think the best thing the market could here is reverse, and resume the very bullish trend, but the 720 level could still be in the cards if we bounce around here for the next several days.January 30 2000
"It is looking like a brutal open so far. Use 745 as a stop if you got a good entry, but stay long if we close above 759." {To quote from the email update before the open.} I did have the feeling we would we see the 736 Mars price line if the 745 Fib Zone didn't hold . Only the Astro charts are updated right now. I was not able to get through to tech support today. Unless I can get Trade Station working by Monday morning only Supercharts charts will be posted on Monday. The incredible Dow System is still short.January 28 2000
I am beginning to think TradeStation 2000 has it in for me! I crashed the program this evening and I can't get the refresh data to register in the intraday charts. Sorry for the typo. I think it was obvious I meant the 770 level which again turned back the OEX. Bulls got a great entry just under the 750 level which I have mentioned here the last few days. The question is do we have a bottom? Maybe. Master11 has started to go into the buy alert zone and MSI could give a pivot as well. If you took the perfect long entry I mentioned I would stay long as long as we close above the 759 astro price line. ( BTW the Astro price lines have provide a great road map). The NYA and the SPX did give buys on the close. There are still too many bugs with the signals as once again they only gave the buy, after I closed and opened the workspaces. I am waiting for a reply from Omega. This could take weeks or even months to fix if past history is any indication. If you want to still want get on the list go here. I have know idea when this will become operational. I have also started another list, http://www.onelist.com/community/OEXTraders If you wish to find out when we will be holding other open houses on the weekend register here, and you will receive an email as to when the next open house will be. Lastly Marketpit.com may be up this weekend. This will be a free site geared mainly for futures traders.. Thank you everyone for making this open house a success and don't forget to vote. Thanks!January 27 2000
Sorry the MomentumCycle section was late to update today. Below my commentary you will find their www update as well as Don's update, which is only available via email. As of now the NYA system will only go on a sell at 623.43. I haven't shown the 1440 min bar chart for a while. If it is any indication there is considerable room for further rally. It is a question of when a rally may start, and if the OEX does break through the 700 level, which looks to be giving the OEX problems here still. Just underneath the 750 level could be the perfect entry point, but I don't think bulls will get it if you are playing a possible rally from here into next week.Momentum Cycles for Thursday
Our regular email server is malfunctioning tonight so
here is a brief synopsis of what was going to be posted.
Wednesday had positive adv - decl and positive net
volume. Late in the day it looked like the switch from
nasdaq to nyse stocks was going to put the nya into an
uptrend breakout mode. We expected the end of month
seasonality to begin kicking in any day now as the UC
payroll indicator will be striking Thursday or Friday.
Put/Call sentiment readings have improved and most
oscillators are neutral to oversold. Even the flight to
T bonds has reduced the valuation pressures on stocks.
The makings of a gonzo rally is in the works providing
the FOMC meeting next week does not go overboard. BRRangeTrader for 1-27-99 Open
End of Day Closing Statistics:Open -1418.00
High -1422.50
Low -1408.20
Close -1415.40
Pivot Value For Thursday 1-27-00 is 1415.40
Good Evening,Recap:
The March future opened at 1418.00 calling for the down
closing profile to govern the range of the day. The
profile called for a high of 1422.95, the actual high was
1422.50, there was difficulty, at least for the author, to
hold on to the short in the face of apparent strength of
volume and A/D issues, but the market held to the 62% odds
of a lower close and tagged the 1408.50 region, the area
of an extended low for the up close profile. The morning
low challenged the high at 2:06 pm and then a choppy
decline to a close of 1415.40. The profile's range
forecast was contrary, for the range was pretty confined a
measly 14.30 points.I have 5 tables to night, due once again to narrow set of
parameters. Please bear with me, since there is some
logic and it attempts to make sense out of this market.For an Open greater than the Wednesday 1415.80 close, Only
a 22% chance with a 100% chance of a lower close. This is
something to keep in the back of your mind. Note the
small H-L spread.
Average Open 1418.10 Extreme High 1431.50
Average High 1423.50 Extreme Low 1404.50
Average Low 1407.07
Average Close 1409.83 Hi-Low spread 16.43
points
++++++
For an Open less than the Wednesday 1415.80 close, expect
this to happen 88% of the time. With this open
Expect a 71% chance of a lower Close. This is a profile
with potential and thus you need to investigate the
various Fibinacci relationships in this range. Its average
profile is below and it's a potentially volatile trading
day.
Average Open 1412.20 Extreme High 1443.63
Average High 1424.50 Extreme Low 1377.40
Average Low 1400.20
Average Close 1415.60 Hi-Low spread 24.30
points
++++++
PROFILES BASED ON CLOSING RELATIONSHIPS.The profile of an up closer will exhibit the following
range. Note that the average low is 1408.10! Just a bit
under today's low. This "represents" strong support that
if broken leads to the down closer profile. So in this
scenario the bulls will buy the retest of the 1408.10
region and try to blow way the weak shorts at 1425.00.
Note the 10-point give back, after breaking the 1425.00
Monday high. I believe that any decent Elliott Wave
technician would be calling the last several days a Wave
4. Plan accordingly, this is only a 22% probability
situation, but if it happens it is volatile, note the
average high low spread.Average Open 1412.70 Extreme High 1443.63
Average High 1437.30 Extreme Low 1401.30
Average Low 1408.10
Average Close 1427.80 Hi-Low spread 29.20The profile of a down closer will probably exhibit these
characteristics.
Average Open 1415.60 Extreme High 1431.5
Average High 1420.08 Extreme Low 1377.70
Average Low 1401.90
Average Close 1408.80 Hi-Low spread 18.18
Note the near to even open and a minimal rally to test the
1422.5 high. There is only a 14% chance that the 1422.5
high of today will be effectively challenged in the down
closer set. Lastly, it could be the second retest of the
1398 low and the end of this wave down due to the extreme
low of 1377.70.
Lastly the all-average profile for a grounding
perspective. The EDR, or the spread is 20.65
Average Open 1414.95 Extreme High 1443.63
Average High 1423.90 Extreme Low 1377.70
Average Low 1403.25 STD Dev Range 12.90
Average Close 1413.05 Hi-Low spread 19.70
I calculated the standard deviation of all the ranges to
be utilized in setting stops. I hope you know that the
E-mini is its own animal. I consider it to be more freely
traded than the Big Contract and more indicative of fear
and greed than the larger contract, of course, each to his
own interpretation.Trend Watch
There is only a 22% chance of a positive close up. If
you add another day to those two, you get three days that
show a higher close by Monday. 55% of the set are set to
head much lower by Monday. The last two are dinky inside
days for Thursday, yet lower into Friday. As of 9:00 PM
Eastern the Globex low is 1409.00 I noticed that at the
start of the session it was already down, so be prepared
for the one scenario, where there is a deep lower opening.
One of the previous days had a lower opening, a HIGHER
HIGH and get this, a net lower close. Tomorrow, could be
a difficult day for a day trader, yet what day isn't? The
trade of the day is again selling near the 1422 region,
doubling up if the market heads through 1422.50Good Luck and Good Trading,
Don Thompson
January 26 2000
So far the daily Gann line has held, and we may continue to rally for a few days if we can get above trendline resistance. The NYA system did give a buy on the close, as did the SPX system. However,I am not looking to take a position. It would be a big positive for the bulls if we closed above the 50 bar average on the 30 minute chart . The only other positive is PSI(the same algorithm as MSI) on the NYA system chart, which may may be indicating a short term bottom is in place.
January 25 2000
The NYA system is still short and now will close out the position if the 644.51 stop is hit. The SPX system did go short within a few minutes of the NYA system. These systems use breadth, plus the same TRIX indicator found in the DOW system, and also FIB numbers. Here are two crude system reports: NYA, SPX. I sent the system reports via the http://www.onelist.com/community/OEXTrader .in an EXCEL data format, which has more detailed reports. If you want copies, send me an email and I will try and get them to you as soon as possible. This is a free beta test, and you can still sign up. I do favor the NYA system though, as it has fewer trades and a lower draw down. Both systems are in the market around 50 % of the time. I still need to work out one more bug so that traders can differentiate between closing out a position or closing out and taking another position before I start sending signals. I
have to change some code still. The NYA system is finished; you will be able to see how well it correlates with the SPX.. I think I can still improve the SPX system, so consider the system a work in progress. As for the OEX, well, you know my posture. We may get a bounce from the 750 level, but I don't see us going above the 766-769 level today. I am not recommending a long trade here, though, in case we don't have a wedge forming on the daily chart We are currently sitting on a daily Gann line. Not sure if we will see the 740 level this month, as we are forming a wedge on the daily chart.January 24 2000
My short entry point was almost perfect and you can't complain about the lower Fib Zone either. The OEX System has gone on a buy and the NYA system is still long with a 637.42 sell stop now. I had have no recommendation today It looks like I am going to have to get @home before I can send out any signals via email. My current connection is not reliable enough to send out signals yet. Thank you for signing up for this beta test. I will try and have it running this week if I can get a cable appointment.January 21 2000
Below in red is Don's email update. This weekend will be your last chance to get on the email list. I think he is a great addition to this site.SPX and NYA Trading System signals
If you wish to receive these signals via email please go
here http://www.onelist.com/community/OEXTrader.
I will also be providing a SPX system which I have not
posted at the site. This will be a beta test for 3-6
months, or until 100 people sign up for this service. Right now there is a signal delay of 30 to 60 seconds until an email gets into a normal ISP provider's mail. I have my browser
set to check for mail every 60 seconds. These systems will
not be sold. The internet is making this possible. Right
now I think it takes 24 hours for ONElist to recognize
your email address.Please remember that the above is a beta test to see how well the email delivery works. More statistics on the systems will be posted later. Well, I got the tag of the 780 level. I thought we might see a little more downside action after a possible tag of the 787 level, as noted in the email update. It looks like we are wedging on the hourly Gann chart. This could mean a sharp breakout in either direction. The 740 level does look doable if the breakout is to the downside. I suspect any rally Friday may fail at the daily Gann line at 785-786 today, but we are oversold on some indicators.Use a tight stop if you take the trade;note that we could still see the 776 level today. The NYA system is still long and is currently flashing a 636.48 sell stop.RangeTrader for 1-21-99 Open
End of Day Closing Statistics:Open -1477.00
High -1478.00
Low -1447.00
Close -1457.00
Pivot Value For Friday 1-21-00 is 1461.10.Recap:
As chance would have it the market gapped up about 9
points to open at 1478.00. E-mini high for the morning,
before the regular open, was 1485.00. Clearly the high
was made at the open. This open put the market solidly
into the scenario picked for a high probable trade, lower
odds for a gap up opening happening (38%) and high odds
for a close less than 1468.00. (78%). When the chances
get into the 80-20 area it's probably wise to pay
attention.If the Open is greater than the 1457.00 Thursday close,
look for a 72% chance of a higher close.
Average Open 1459.10 Extreme High 1479.55
Average High 1467.10 Extreme Low 1422.03
Average Low 1446.15 Max Possible Close 1470.70
Average Close 1459.34 Hi-Low spread 20.95 points.Taking out the negative closers, if we see it closing
above 1457.00 look for 1465.45 as the average close.
Taking out the positive closers, if we see it closing
below 1457 look for a close in the 1449.40 region.
1470 is the .618 retracement of Thursday's range on the
E-mini. The pattern would be for a gap open higher with a
good retest of the 1448.00 low. Now that will scare all
of the OEX call holders in the morning, and stop them out.
Put holders will get greedy and hold on and watch their
premium get stripped on the run back up.++++++
If the Open is less than the 1457.00 Thursday close, look
for a 66% chance of a lower close.Average Open 1453.65 Extreme High 1467.95
Average High 1459.20 Extreme Low 1430.05
Average Low 1440.25
Average Close 1447.50 Hi-Low spread 18.95 pointsTaking out the positive closers if it's going to close
down look for the average close of 1445.71.
Taking out the negative closers if it's going to close up
look for an average close of 1462.90.
Note that if it is going to be a weak day, any morning
rally will be sold under the Thursday afternoon high of
1463, the 1459 is the .618 retracement of the 1463-1453
afternoon range. So there is a "low" risk trade of about 4
points risk with a possible gain to 1440.00.++++++
The All Average Estimated Daily Range is 17.77 with at
standard deviation of 9.84. This is less than yesterday
implying less of a range for Friday.
All Average Open 1457-53
All Average High 1464-63
All Average Low 1446-47
All Average Close 1455-54.TrendWatch:
Three clear scenarios exist looking into next week. 42%
were clear down move lasting a minimum of three days to
five days. 31% congestion, 27% showed a down Friday and
then up trends for the next week.The chances for a good but not a great 80-20 trade exist
on either side, coupled with a possible narrower range.Good Luck,
Don Thompson
January 20 2000
Remember this name, Transmeta. This will be big if they ever go public {that is,if they don't get bought out first}. I am still working out the settings with Onelist before I send the signals out via email. Maybe it will be set up for tonight. It is always good to start a new project on a full moon day {grin!}. As I said, the system would exit at 745.30 . It did end up going long as well right after. Currently it isn't flashing a sell. Today,the Fib Zones on the hourly are too tight for my liking. So far, the 13 day average is holding. It is rising, so it did shift up. I have no high confidence in an expiration trade here. The 780 level is still within easy reach . I am almost tempted to make an end of day recommendation here with a short entry at 794-795, {where there is also a gap to fill} but I suspect we may blow through it on the open.Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don and his email update:
RangeTrader for 1-19-99
End of Day Closing Statistics:Open -1466.00
High -1476.30
Low -1462.00
Close -1469.50
Pivot Value For Wednesday 01-19-00 1465.93.Recap:
Another large opening gap, this time 12.00 points less
than the Friday close, more or less opening right on the
forecast low of the day, the forecast was for a 70% chance
of a lower opening. Two tests of the 1463-62 region with
a higher high in the afternoon culminating with a narrow
range day of about 14 points, about 4 points less than the
forecast.For Wednesday 1-19-00 there is about a 45% chance for a
higher open than the Tuesday 1469.50 close, what is nice
is that if this occurs there is a 80% chance of a higher
close.
Average Open 1472.57 Extreme High 1486.22
Average High 1480.40 Extreme Low 1458.18
Average Low 1465.30
Average Close 1472.76The negative closer looks like it could close down in the
1458.00 region, which is hardly below yesterdays low of
1462.00. One of the extremes does make it through the
1484.50 resistance on the upside for a surprise.===================
On the opposite side there is about a 55% chance of a
lower opening than the Tuesday 1469.50 close. Ranges for
both sides of the open are in the 15-point range. If it
does open lower there is a 33% chance it will close
higher.
Average Open 14768.75 Extreme High 1500.40
Average High 1476.58 Extreme Low 1449.50
Average Low 1460.85
Average Close 1472.05Note that on of the higher closers would be a short cover
above the 1484.5 and 1496.5 resistance areas.The estimated Daily Range is a whopping 15.44 points.
This figures into the options expiry game of premium
stripping, on the other hand don't go to sleep.All Average Open 1466-69
All Average High 1475-78
All Average Low 1463-60
All Average Close 1469-73.Trend Watch:
Yesterday, I reported a trend that seemed to auger well
for an end of the narrowness on Wednesday, this is still
the case. With the exception of two instances of a
horrible congestion lasting over a week. In only one
instance was there the start of downward price starting on
Wednesday, thus the outlook is for possibly more narrow
range tomorrow, then an up directional bias into the
options expiry. Since there is about an even split to the
open, there is really no clue as to how it opens. When
the percentages get into the 70's is when there seems to
be some predictability to these numbers. Thus if it does
open up remember the 80% chance of a higher close.Good Luck and Good Trading,
The upper Fib Zone was only off by a point and the lower Fib Zone was off by two points. Today the upper Zone is at 800-801 and the lower is at 789-790. I think the key level to watch is the 786 level where the 13 day ER average is at. Usually the market will take its time for a clean break. The NYA system (with stops)will close out the short if the NYA rallies above 745.30 today.
January 18 2000
Sorry if you had problems accessing the site over the weekend. The maintenance work took longer than I though it would.
That was a great call, Bob, for those readers who were trading expiration! Intraday Fib Zones , currently around 802 and 792,were incorrect because the market blasted off early, and thus went for the daily Fib Zone. I won't speculate as to what might happen today. I do think we could see the 780 level on the OEX this week, but I am not sure from what level that may happen. The DOW system went on a sell and continues to rack up the points, as it has consistently done. I have added intraday OBV to the Volume chart, and I have also put in OEX Put volume, with bollinger bands above. I am not sure if I can take any more personal requests. You are not seeing things with the NYA system. There is a buy now, where there was none. I have improved the system by about 100 points. It seems to be a good proxy for the S&P 500, and the NDX . I am going to offer these signals via e-mail in a Beta Test, as I got the email function to work in Trade Station. I will be using Onelist to send out the signals. This service will be free to OEXTrader subscribers. If you wish to get on the list you should sign up for the free e-mail trial, and then you can judge if the signals will be of value to you. The new system does have stops. It should be implemented sometime this week .The system will give a sell if the NYA drops below 645.47.January 14 2000
Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don.
We are still close to the oversold level on the 3vol bar chart ;a good trade setup for those playing expiration may be to look for a short entry at 797 ,and to close the position out at 793. We may get another gap up open on Monday.January 13 2000
Here are the hourly MOB levels, courtesy of Don. Below is the email update he usually sends in the evening. There is still room to be on the email list for another 100 subscribers. We will keep this opportunity open until the end of the month, or until another 100 subs sign up. Go here if you wish to sign up for the email updates.RangeTrader for 1-13-99 Open
Bottom Line: Barring a positive reaction to the PPI, the
trend appears to be down into next week. A weak rally can
be sold at 1452-54 with the stop at today's high. Look to
cover on a .75 or 1.0 EDR. Any rally is not likely to be
a barnburner.EOD Stats for 1-12-00:
Open - 1454.00
High - 1456.50
Low - 1439.00
Close - 1442.00Pivot Value for Thursday 1-13-00 = 1445.83.
Recap:
The open was marginally greater than the Tuesday close.
The low of the March E-mini was 1439.00, within .50 of the
first projected forecast range of 1438.63-1435.40. Most
evidently, the weight of the trend watch needed to be on
this trader's mind more than a possible completion of a
wave 4.Today, 10 similar days came up from the past. The queries
are now decidedly bearish. Based on splitting out the
queries on an opening higher or lower than the Wednesday
1442.00 close,we came up with the following probability tree.70% of the opens were greater than the Wednesday close, of
these 7, four closed greater than 1442.00.
Average Close - 1455.30
Average High - 1460.78
Extreme High- 1475.00
Average Low- 1440.00 or 40% probability of a
higher close.The three closing below Wednesday's close exhibited this
pattern:
Average Close - 1412.40
Average High - 1448.60
Average Low - 1410.2030% of the Openings were under 1442.00 the average range
normal today's close showed the following:
There was one very extreme day 10-12-1989, 358 to 328 on a
closing basis… That is an 8% haircut.Excluding the extreme,
Average Close 1425.25
Average High 1452.00
Average Low 1417.21
Estimated Daily Range excluding the extreme day, yields
25.32
Estimated All Average OHLCOpen 1447.30-1443.80
High 1454.70-1452.80
Low 1419.60-1417.20
Close 1427.14-1424.75
Trend Watch: Visual inspection reveals 7 down days, most
into Friday turn around time at the earliest. One
congestion set for 4 days and 2 up CIT days, one of which
was a key reversal day.I also considered one other thing, since 70% of the days
are down, what is the average high for these down days can
I expect? The answer; an average high of 1452.20.Conclusion: Barring a positive reaction to the PPI, the
trend appears to be down into next week. A weak rally can
be sold at 1452-54 with the stop at today's high, this is
a 70% trade and probably worth thinking about.Good Luck and Good Trading
Don Thompson
If you are new to this site, usually the MomentumCycle section updates in the evening and I update 3 hours before the open. The MomentumCycle has the bond trader. This site is mainly a tool for traders. All our commentaries are based on our indicators found in each section. Bob, and Jon are the writers for the MomentumCycle section. Whether you are a day trader or end of day trader we belive this site has all the tools you need to make an informed decision in the time frame that you may choose to trade. I believe the trading systems alone are worth the price of a subscription.
Thanks Rick
