December 10,1999 Livechart30-minute
T-Spread Volume
Gitanshu Buch is too modest. I only found about him being mentioned by MSN(in case you missed the post in the Cycle section) from my friend who cameacross his name while surfing at work. Way to go GB! Remember us little guys at OEX Trader, and give us a plug if you get on CNBC.I am worriednow. I can only image how much money Travis has been making lately. Heusually trades twice the number of contracts that I do. Maybe we can talk himinto financing an IPO for OEX Trader, and thus turn this into a super- financialinformation site for options traders ... I am still dreaming. It wouldbe nice to hire staff.
That was a perfect trade courtesy of our other greattraders in the Cycle section. No trade recommendation this morning from me; asI said before the close yesterday my intraday vix is on a buy, but just barely. Thereis a real danger the OEX could trade down into the 734 level,so be wary ofa strong rally that fails today.
Most message boards are talking aboutAMZN making a big move in January. It just might be here now. "Sell everythingelse and buy CMGI and AMZN" seems to be the current motto.
I will probably be takinga week's vacation in December and January. I probably won't be going anywhere.My MS is worsening right now, so I will probably be home updating charts.
Hereare the following charts:cumulative volume,astro,astro2,5minute, hourly cycles,Gannhourly,daily Trix, and the3volbar chart.
December 9,1999
I am probably going to hold those AMZN calls until expiration. I almostalways use market orders when buying internet stock options. The bid/askcan sometimes change quickly in seconds when dealing with internet stocks.If you try to get a perfect entry you can end up missing some large moves.You did well if used a market order to buy CMGI calls on the recent stockrecommendation of Travis, as the stock quickly jumped 10 dollarsafter a slightly weak open. It is the same plan for today; play a possiblebreakout above the 760 level. If the US dollar breaks to new highs theOEX probably will as well.December 8 1999
Nothing exciting here;I can't top Travis, the man withthe golden touch right now. If we get a Santa Claus rally it will probablybe during these next two weeks. My intraday VIX intraday indicator couldgive a buy if we don't drop immediately from the open; the alternate scenariois that the market will probably try and fill the gap near the 750level. I wouldn't hope for more than the 769 level today. If we do rally on the open you may want to buy the 760 level. I think that levelis key for a breakout; as an alternate possiblity look to the 750 levelfor support today. DELL needs to break above 47to break out to new highs.December 7 1999
Sorry... wrong chart but right supportlevel:760. No problem with the FTP this morning;I am sorry aboutthat again. If you assume a short term topis in, play the short side from the 769 level.I think the 757 level has to hold todayto prevent a trip to the 752 level.We may just chop up and down for a few days here,perhaps with a bias tothe upside if one of the twin peaks holds here.December 6 1999
"Didn't expect the stop to be hit this early. Buy the763
level"
"Buying AHQ Jan 60,s at market."
From the morning e-mail updates. We didn't even get apullback to the 763 level. What can I say that Bob hasn'talready said? Thanks Bob: ) I have the 760 levelas support, and a Fib zone around 778-780. Idon't think though we will see the 760 level today though, maybe the 765-763level. There looks to be major resistance at the 778 level on the weeklyGannchart. MSI may be suggesting this is just the start if the OEX does breakoutabove 778. The houlry Gann chart maybesuggeting we have peaked already.December 3 1999
Dell looks like a good play here. I would buy the January 47 or 50 calls if the stock doesn't gap down. There is strong buyingat the 200 day. It should make a record high asinvestors start switching out of tech stocks that are making new highsright now. The OEX is right at a "makeit or break it" point. Keep the same stop. If we make a record high themarket may quickly sell off. Traders should use the sell off to sell theirputs {that is,if we get a decline}. I would then buy the December 760 calls.50% position. I expect we will see the 780 level on the OEX if wedo make a record high today. The Oddlotsare back at their upper band. As for the employment report this morning,I fully expect a bad number. The Internet alone is sucking jobs out ofthe economy, not to mention other employment that is a direct result ofthe internet boom. The market may just shrug it off though.
December 2 1999
As I said in the intraday e-mail update , intradayVIX looks to be on a buy here. Cumulative breadthand volume are falling. Either price follows or price will lead theway up, and cumulative breadth and volume may kick in. Oddlotshortsare near the lower band, so I don't favor an explosive rally. I would lookfor a short entry near 752-755. Use763 as a stop. Only a 50% position; at the money puts. You choice on themonth.. Don't know if this will turn into a position trade. We might justdrop like a rock from the open..December 1 1999
Season's Web Greetings
I wonder how busy UPS will be this season? So far the 737level has held. We could see a tag of the 735-737level again today if you want to play the long side here. I think the riskmay be the 728 level. I see the 747level as being a possible good short entry point today as well. The747could also be a possible breakout point. No strong overbought or oversoldreadings- just possible support and resistance levels to trade with.November 30 1999
Are you sitting down? You might want to lie down then..Websites.com is now bid close to a million.Not bad for a $100 dollar investment. The guy is only 21. The company hasthe potential to be a billion dollar company. So you have to say the $1,000,000is chump change. Another company that is coming out with an IPO is 321websites.com.I can get in out because I am a member of 321. I don't know if you canstill get it on it if you sign up. One company, Go2net has been quietlybuying. up sites. As if Paul Allen doesn't have enough. It is a gold rushon the web! Who knows what some of these companies will be worth ten yearfrom now. It just makes me sick because I was on the web 3 years ago andI could have easily bought some of these million dollar names. I am tryingto make up for lost time. with some of the sites that I have put up recently , that I purchased this year. It is real hard to find good namesnow. Not much has changed for today. Same Support numbers. We may get slightlyhigher peaks though. I am looking at hourlycum vol. here. It is setting up just like the early October plungethis week. I think there will be a rally to short if you want to jump thegun here with some puts on rallies. Please excuse any glaring grammar errors.I think I have wrecked my eyes putting up sites. I can't see thescreen it seems unless I put my face to it..
November 29 1999
I got to meet one of our subscribers on the weekend ashe came up with his family to do some shopping. We didn't get to squeezein a round of call though.. It was nice to get some feed-back on the siteand what other traders are using to trade the OEX. What I got from Stevewas, day- traders are looking for. possible high and low times onthe OEX. I don't day trade. He mentioned Astrikos is usually pretty goodwith those times. We will be featuring a new chart every month The featurechart until January will be a timeand price chart. Hope this will help traders. Thanks Steve. Iam considering hosting a annual OEX Trader golf tournament in the summer.The US dollar goes a long way up here if we do host one( I preferFlorida). A little more pain for the bears this week?. I have Fib supportaroud 745-747. The Astrocycle hits today.. I have the feeling it may mark a low though. Ithink the 737 level has to hold for the bullsto conntinue to party. Friday maybe the best day to enter into puts eventhough the put/call ratio is maxed out..
November 26 1999
Almost time for the OEX to split? So far short term moving averagesare providing support. This Astro 3 chart maybe indicating a short term top on Tuesday- or is it just going to be apause? I have no trade recommendation today. I would not consider enteringinto a short unless VIX drops below 18 and the OEXis above the 763 level. I just can't recommendthe long side with the CBOE put/call indicator whereit is.November 24 1999
What I can I say...my ego got the better of me.I should have recommended going short with a 50% position on Monday, and stayed withthe stop. All I have to say today is the 736 level (plusor minus two points) should hold, or we could drop to the 728-730 level.I have removed the six month rate. My MS is not improving. Right now Iam having trouble with my sight.November 23 1999
Play it again Sam? The OEX rallies and the NYAdrops. I recommended closing out the position for a small loss as I didn'twant to see a possible tag of the 760 level. Wasit just IBM that pushed the OEX up?. It certainly wasn't volume.The CBOE put /call indicator continues to grow morebearish. I am declining a recommendation tonight. The upper average isright at 763 while we have a daily Gann lineright at the 760 area. If you want to try a short again,this might be thearea you are looking for. There has been a lot of talk about Internet stockswith regards to the fundamentalist's clamor to "show me the money". AMZN,for example.To explain,I will use the e-mail received from this site andmy other sites. I have counted 4 new online stores that I haven't evenhad a real chance to examine. I haven't caught up on many of these newsites yet, but from a quick look, I would say competition on the internetis about to go up another notch.I just found this site, CDPointfrom aNetradio link. When you thinkabout it, AZMN's move to plow all their money back into marketing was the right move. I just don't know if that will be enough. Theybetter be good at selling books. Even the competition in that field isgrowing. I also saw four new commercials today for sites that I had neverheard of. Internet stock that will pay off geometrically from this pointwill be specialty sites. I almost forgot -I am not bearish on AOL but Gobe.comis offering a free computer with internet access on my Chat site.
November 22 1999
I would like to apologize to anyone that has requested a reciprocallink to OEX Trader.com. I know that I have not responded. It is raininghere now,so I should be caught up in the next two weeks. I hope you likesome of the changes that I have made to the index page. I am trying toadd more features. I also made some changes to Zubee!. I believe you will find it to be the quickest search on the web.
MSI has gone deep into the sell zone. Cumulativevolume suggests a gap down. The five minute chart is right at support.So far this trendline is holding. We needto see the 742 level broken to see something serious on the downside. Keepthe 760 level as a stop. .
November 19 1999
I will assume you are not long the OEZXI as I said"use a five point stop". If you went short at 744 you should have closedout the position. All I can say is that I think we are close to a shortterm top. We could see the 755-557 level today.Use a stop at 760, If you are not short, try to buy the OEZXI at 12 dollars or under and use the 760 levelas a stop. One minute cum vol. echoes whatBob was saying in his commentary. The Fiboscillator had made a pivot and the 753 level is also a trendlineon the five minute chart.November 18 1999
Have we seen a short term top? Maybe- we just missed the 747target I had suggested a few days ago. If we do make it to the 755-757level we will be showing major divergences on the 1440minute bar chart and the 3 vol. bar chart. If youwant to go short here, the 742-743 level should be a good entry point if the trendline at 744is going to hold. I wouldn't expect any more than the 734level over the next two days. Use a five point stop; at-the-money Decembers.November 17 1999
That was a great short setup;a classic " sell on thenews". It was short-lived though, because cumulativevolume. couldn't break below the 150. As a result,I sent out the intradaye-mail update to close out any shorts.It appeared obvious at that pointwe could go higher. You can't argue with the market. It doesn't listen.Hats off to Travis! Where are we going now? The 30 minute bottomed righton schedule for the bulls, and we have the 734 and the 737 level possiblyproviding support. The 737 level (also daily Gannsupport) is the top of the Fib zone, whilethe 734 level is the bottom of the zone. It is much harder to lookfor a top, but you have a support level if you are looking to stay longor play the long side here. My best guess is that we could see the OEXreach the 755-757 level. I was thinking thisafternoon of another way to play expiration. An alternate way would beto use a conservative strategy. If you are playing either calls or putson e-week it may be good to hedge with the next month out by playingthe opposite strike. You could end up with a free ride if expiration continuesto have big moves. I wonder if Bob wants to lease us his new Gann Oscillator?It looks like a great indicator! It would be great to provide cumulativevolume and the Gann oscillator in a real time chart on this site. If Ihit on one more stock I will probably pump some more money into this site.How about an IPO for OEXTRADER.com? Anyone have any great connections?I would think it would cost $20,000 plus to set that up. With an IPO wecould have even more features.November 16 1999
What do you think? No change in rates or just the anticipated 1/4 point rise? Some traders anticipate that in either casethe market will be soaring in the relief that "FED TUESDAY" is over. Personally,I think it will be a great shorting opportunity if you look at most ofmy charts on this page, and the daily Gann chartas well. The 30 minute cycle has either bottomed or will bottom onthe open. If I am wrong we could see the 748 level on the T-Spread chart.I think we will see the 716 level, and maybe even the 707 level beforewe see the 748 level. I was hoping to get a good short entry on Mondayso that we would have had some leeway for today. I have the same shortrecommendation today, but it is more of a crap shoot now. You are now basicallygambling on the Fed's moderation,or more precisely,public reaction. TheNDX system has gone on a sell.November 15 1999
If you download the software at hearme.com, you willunderstand why I see it is as being a $100+ stock. Goto.com alsohas a good formula for making money. I have also stated this stock willeventually be a $200+ issue.However, there will be very sharp correctionsalong the way that should be bought. The story with Heartssoft is the potentialfor a kids-only browser.However, I think this pick is more speculative.I was only off by a fraction on the 715 target.Look for a short entry today at the 734 level.Use 740 as a stop. I think we may tag the 737level. Stay short if we close below Friday's close;that is,of course,onlyif the trade is triggered. I would play the OEZXE. Only a small positionis recommended.November 12 1999
To trade expiration or not... I think I will pass onmaking any recommendation tonight. In my opinion,the best speculation isto buy the OEZXC on a gap open today.A small position is best.Use 742as a stop. Sorry, that is the best I can do. One Twinpeak is already near a possible reversal point, and even daily Trixmay be turning back up here. Traders should target the 715level.MAJ is at a "make it or break it" level,so anything is possible today. The OEX, NYA, and the NDX system have allgone back on buys. Fund traders who went long from the perfect entry thatwas recommended back in October should be looking to close out positionstoday.However, I am not advocating going short. We may continue to correctin a sideways manner here. The CBOE put/call indicatoris already nearing the area where previous peaks have occurred. Peoplethat bought HEAR should sell half of their positions on any GAP up todayand then roll it over into HTSF (Heartsoft)if it can be gotten under three dollars today.
